Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
302 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
This afternoon and early evening.

An upper level low remains to the north near the border of
Illinois and Indiana state line while an occluded low was analyzed
over eastern Illinois. A stationary front extended east of the
triple point across the Ohio River Valley and into West Virginia
and Virginia. A cold front extended from the triple point
southeast into Kentucky and stretched southwest into west
Tennessee and into central Arkansas.

Cloud cover has helped to limit destabilization in the lower
levels and this has kept the stronger storms more isolated. There
still remains potential for a few severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind being the primary risk. There remains a non zero
tornado threat but the risk remains minimal. Fast storm motions
from 30-40 mph is helping to reduce the risk of localized flooding
despite rain rates averaging from 1.00 to 1.50 inches per hour.

Deep layer unidirectional wind shear will continue to support
organized convection with higher longevity than typical summertime
convection. Storm-relative helicity values observed on the 12Z
sounding were supportive of some broad storm-scale rotation as has
been exhibited recently in storms that moved across Pickens and
into Tuscaloosa County. A brief tornado can not be entirely ruled
out, especially where storms interact with low-level boundaries
where low-level directional shear will be maximized.

An outflow boundary from convection last evening drifted south to
near the U.S. Highway 80 corridor this morning and this boundary
is now observed by radar lifting northeast and is acting as a
focus for shower and thunderstorm activity across our southwest
and south-central counties. Meanwhile, we expect ongoing activity
to continue to move generally east across central Alabama through
late afternoon.

05

.LONG TERM...
Saturday through Thursday.

The southern extent of moderate westerly flow at 500mb will reside
over North Alabama on Saturday along with a thermal gradient
associated with prior convection. Warm advection and lift near
this feature should continue to serve as a focus for showers and
storms with the highest chances across the North.

After Saturday, the 500mb pattern will become more typical of
summer, and the aforementioned thermal gradient should retreat
northward on Sunday as higher heights develop across the Deep
South. Convection should be isolated and limited to north of
Interstate 20. Rain chances may slowly increase for Monday through
Thursday as the ridge weakens.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Conditions will now begin to deteriorate across the area as
showers and storms begin to move into the area. Look for impacts
at TCL and within the hour and then EET, ASN, and ANB by 19 to
20Z. Look for the impacts to begin at MGM and TOI after 23Z.
Thunderstorms will not persists in a area for long so went with
generally only 2 to 3 hours with each tempo. Drier tonight with
low clouds developing after 8Z. Another MCS will move into the
area late morning, generally across the north, so added in
prob30 for the northern sites for TSRA after 16Z.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Relatively high rain chances will continue through Saturday
especially across the northern half of the area. Patchy fog may
develop in the overnight and early morning hours where rainfall
occurs. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  88  71  92  71 /  50  60  20  20  30
Anniston    70  89  71  92  72 /  60  60  10  10  20
Birmingham  72  90  73  93  73 /  40  50  10  10  20
Tuscaloosa  72  93  74  94  74 /  40  40  10  10  10
Calera      72  90  73  92  73 /  50  40  10  10  10
Auburn      71  89  73  91  73 /  60  40  10  10  10
Montgomery  74  93  74  94  74 /  60  30  10  10  10
Troy        74  92  73  92  73 /  50  20  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
438 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-231245-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
438 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening across
all of Central Alabama. However, the favored area for severe storms
will be along the I-20 corridor with the main threat being damaging
straight line winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today and this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
208 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

ALZ023-221945-
Tuscaloosa AL-
208 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Samantha, or 16 miles north of Northport, moving east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bankhead Lock And Dam, Wiley and Windham Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 8732 3352 8732 3351 8730 3349 8730
      3349 8733 3347 8734 3345 8733 3346 8732
      3344 8731 3344 8730 3339 8730 3345 8768
      3352 8768
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 270DEG 28KT 3349 8758

05

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