Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
654 PM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.UPDATE...
Evening Update and 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Increased rain chances early this evening along axis from just west
of Selma, to east of Tuscaloosa, to the western BHM metro, to
Oneonta. A rather substantial outflow boundary has set up in the
vicinity of this axis. It also is collocated near the wet/dry
interface. Therefore, thunderstorms may develop along this axis
for a few hours before slowly diminishing. Due to the numerous
boundaries and instability this afternoon, left mention of some
activity until 1 am. A strong wind gust is possible with this
activity.

Otherwise, changes based on where rain fell. There will most
likely be some patchy fog overnight, but visibilities will remain
greater than 3 miles in most spots.

75

Previous short-term discussion:Through Tonight.

Afternoon convection has been confined to areas mainly south of
I-20, with more organized storms along and south of I-85 where
deeper moisture is present. Highest base velocity winds off radars
have been in the 20-30 mph range, but likely some wind gusts to 40
mph in a few places. Activity will diminish through the early
evening hours with loss of daytime heating, with rain free
conditions for most areas by 9 or 10 pm.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

Central Alabama will remain in a typical weak flow summertime
pattern for much of the forecast period, within an overall
weakness in the subtropical ridge, and well south of any
meaningful influence from a blocky/amplified northern stream
pattern. This will result in daily chances of mainly diurnally
driven scattered convection. The upper low will continue to drift
over the eastern Gulf and Florida, generally opening up into more
of a trough axis. Meanwhile weak shortwaves/possible MCVs will
drift southward towards the Lower Mississippi Valley around the
upper-level ridge over the Southern Plains/northern Mexico,
merging into the eastern Gulf trough. Low-level ridging extending
westward from the Bermuda high over the northern Gulf will result
in a westerly component to the low-level flow over Central
Alabama, preventing significant Gulf moisture return. This will
result in warm temperatures and small lowering of dew points via
afternoon mixing, keeping heat index values below advisory
criteria. MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg and pockets of high
DCAPE will allow for some strong storms with gusty winds
practically each day, but lack of stronger instability, weak mid-
level lapse rates, and weak flow do not appear supportive of any
appreciable severe storm/high microburst potential.

1000-500mb and 850-700mb mean RH values and PWATs combined with
weak flow do not appear supportive of more than 40% PoP coverage
at this time for Sunday/Monday. Locally higher coverage will be
possible near outflow boundaries from previous day's convection
and any MCVs/weak waves but predictability of any of these
features is low. Tuesday and especially Wednesday currently look
like the days with the highest PoPs/convective coverage with a
little bit more moisture aloft, and the ECMWF also shows passage
of a weak shortwave on Wednesday which could enhance rain chances
as well. The GFS remains consistent but an outlier in spinning up
an area of probably spurious low pressure from convection over
Central America and lifting it northward into the Gulf. Without
any support from the ECMWF or the European ensembles, and nothing
in NHC's outlook, will stick close to the ECMWF forecast for the
end of the week with an upper-level ridge building in from the
west.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Convection remains ongoing near TCL/BHM/EET. This activity will
slowly diminish through the evening but not vanish until after
midnight. Most areas remain VFR outside of thunderstorm areas. The
one wrinkle will be the patchy fog. There will be some development
again tonight. It appears to be very short lived and mainly MVFR.

Sunday will be another warm and unstable day, leading to afternoon
thunderstorm development. Started off with another PROB30 but
will be changed to VCTS or tempo the next time out. Skies mainly
have daytime cumulus, thunder remnants and cirrus. Winds light and
variable to calm overnight and south southwest around 5kts
daytime.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through
Sunday, with the best coverage each afternoon. Cannot rule out at
least isolated coverage during the overnight hours both nights.
Light fog is possible each morning, and most likely will be near
locations that receive rainfall the previous day. RH values remain
above critical values. There are no fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  90  68  89  69 /  30  40  30  40  30
Anniston    71  90  69  89  69 /  20  40  30  40  30
Birmingham  71  91  71  90  71 /  30  40  20  40  30
Tuscaloosa  69  92  70  92  71 /  30  40  20  40  30
Calera      69  89  69  89  70 /  30  40  20  40  30
Auburn      68  88  69  88  70 /  30  40  30  40  30
Montgomery  71  91  71  90  71 /  30  40  20  40  30
Troy        69  90  70  89  70 /  30  40  30  40  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
520 AM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-101330-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
520 AM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

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