Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Birmingham, AL

210 
WWUS54 KBMX 231308
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
808 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

ALC073-231318-
/O.EXP.KBMX.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-180623T1315Z/
Jefferson AL-
808 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 815 AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Birmingham.

LAT...LON 3378 8665 3377 8665 3377 8654 3368 8652
      3362 8655 3352 8656 3355 8692 3369 8704
      3373 8704 3375 8702 3377 8702 3379 8700
      3379 8697 3382 8695 3384 8688 3384 8676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1308Z 300DEG 32KT 3358 8655 

$$

89^GSatterwhite

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
641 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and Tonight.

A stalled frontal boundary is stretched through Central AL this
morning. A few scattered showers have lingered along this boundary
for most of the night, and should continue through the morning
hours. The main story for today is the MCS currently moving
through Eastern Oklahoma and into Western Arkansas. This MCS will
continue to propagate eastward along the frontal boundary through
today. By the afternoon, the boundary will lift slightly northward
as an effective warm front and be stretched through Northern AL
by mid- afternoon. Models are in pretty good agreement with the
MCS redeveloping across portions of North-Central AL this
afternoon and evening with surface CAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. The
NAM has been painting the area with 4500+ CAPE, but I believe this
is overdone and isn't supported by the higher resolution CAMS.
0-6km Bulk Shear is in that 20-30kt range, so while it's not
overly impressive,it is sufficient to support strong to severe
storms, especially when considering the 3000+ CAPE. I have added
mention for severe storms in the HWO for this afternoon, and will
highlight a slight risk area similar to the SPC outlook - mainly
for the northern portions of Central AL. The main threat will be
damaging winds as vertical shear profiles really don't support a
significant tornado threat. The big uncertainty in the risk area
comes down to timing and where that frontal boundary is located.
If the MCS pushes through in the early to mid-afternoon, the
boundary is likely over our area, but if the MCS slows and doesn't
come in until the evening, that boundary may have already pushed
north of our area (limiting our severe risk). Models have been
going back and forth on the timing and coverage of storms with
each new run, so it's hard to get a handle on what exactly will
take place, which isn't unusual with these MCS patterns as it
highly depends on strength of outflows and the propagation speed.
Essentially, this will be a day where the exact risk and risk
areas will need to be re-evaluated frequently.

The MCS pushes out of Central AL by this evening/tonight, clearing
out the rain chances for the area.

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

Height rises on Sunday should lead to hotter conditions and very
minimal prospects for rainfall. The upper-level ridge should
continue to limit rain chances on Monday and Tuesday, but isolated
convection cannot be ruled out. The ridge may weaken on Wednesday
as a trough moves through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. There
is good model support for a weak shortwave near the base of the
trough over the Tennessee Valley which would lead to enhanced
rain chances. This features may end up getting pulled south and
west across the forecast area on Thursday and Friday as ridge
develops to our north. This scenario would lead to a continuation
of somewhat enhanced rain chances.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

MVFR conditions for most sites this morning with TOI experiencing
IFR CIGs. CIGS and should improve to VFR area-wide by 14-16z. Line
of storms is moving west to east across northern portions of
Central AL. KBHM, KANB, and KASN may be impacted by VCTS and TSRA
through much of the day today and periods of VIS reducing rain.
This should all move out of the area by 23-00z, leading to VFR
conditions through the evening hours.

25/Owen

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High rain chances will continue for today especially across the
northern third of the area. Patchy fog may develop in the
overnight and early morning hours where rainfall occurs. Rainfall
is not expected on Sunday as a suppressive ridge develops. There
are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  68  91  71  92 /  70  20  10  10  30
Anniston    87  69  91  72  93 /  60  10  10  10  30
Birmingham  89  73  93  74  94 /  60  10  10  10  30
Tuscaloosa  92  74  95  74  95 /  40  10  10  10  30
Calera      90  73  92  73  93 /  50  10  10  10  30
Auburn      90  72  91  73  92 /  50  10  10  10  30
Montgomery  94  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
Troy        94  74  92  73  93 /  30  10  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
339 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-241145-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
339 AM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon for north central
portions of Central Alabama. The main threat will be damaging winds,
heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
623 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

ALZ011>013-231200-
Fayette AL-Marion AL-Lamar AL-
623 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION...
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND NORTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM
CDT...

At 622 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Blooming Grove, or 10 miles northeast of Vernon, moving east at 35
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winfield, Fayette, Guin, Brilliant, Glen Allen, Beaverton, Gu-
Win, Blooming Grove, Bluff, Tucker, Bazemore, Wayside, Richard Arthur
Field, Bevill State College Fayette, Hubbertville, Fowlers Crossroads
and Texas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 8804 3398 8764 3393 8764 3367 8766
      3374 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1122Z 276DEG 30KT 3383 8796

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
644 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

ALZ011>013-231230-
Fayette AL-Marion AL-Lamar AL-
644 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION...FAYETTE AND
NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 643 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sulligent, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winfield, Fayette, Vernon, Sulligent, Guin, Berry, Brilliant, Glen
Allen, Detroit, Beaverton, Gu-
Win, Bankston, Bluff, Boley Springs, Blooming Grove, Lamar County
Airport, Crews, Bedford, Twin and Gattman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3405 8821 3399 8764 3387 8764 3387 8753
      3369 8753 3369 8742 3360 8744 3374 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 278DEG 29KT 3388 8814

56

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
713 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

ALZ015-024-231245-
Walker AL-Jefferson AL-
713 AM CDT SAT JUN 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL WALKER AND NORTH
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

At 712 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rocky Hollow, or near Sumiton, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sumiton, Dora, Adamsville, Graysville, Sipsey, West Jefferson, Rocky
Hollow, Burnwell, Beloit, Quinton, Lynns Park, Sayre and Empire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3382 8720 3388 8711 3372 8688 3360 8702
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 308DEG 40KT 3378 8709

56