Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Birmingham, AL

613 
WWUS54 KBMX 141903
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
203 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

ALC007-047-065-091-105-141945-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180414T1945Z/
Marengo AL-Perry AL-Hale AL-Bibb AL-Dallas AL-
203 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MARENGO...WESTERN PERRY...EASTERN HALE...
SOUTHWESTERN BIBB AND WEST CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTIES...

At 203 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southeast of McFarland Mall to near Consul,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Uniontown, Newbern, Vaiden, Low Gap, Mertz, Central Mills,
Perry County Correctional Center, Morgan Springs, Safford, Folsom,
Phipps, Vaiden Field Airport and Wateroak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central, south
central, southwestern and west central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3300 8754 3300 8737 3301 8731 3227 8733
      3228 8738 3227 8744 3227 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 236DEG 22KT 3310 8745 3226 8749 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

25/Owen

941 
WWUS54 KBMX 141920
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
220 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

ALC007-047-065-091-105-141930-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180414T1945Z/
Marengo AL-Perry AL-Hale AL-Bibb AL-Dallas AL-
220 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MARENGO...WESTERN
PERRY...EASTERN HALE...SOUTHWESTERN BIBB AND WEST CENTRAL DALLAS
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central, south
central, southwestern and west central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3300 8754 3300 8737 3301 8731 3227 8733
      3228 8738 3227 8744 3227 8758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 236DEG 22KT 3316 8735 3232 8739 

$$

25/Owen

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1232 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today through Sunday.

Confidence continues to increase in the threat for severe storms
this afternoon into tonight. Models have been trending slightly
slower and more toward a neutral and eventually negative tilt with
the upper-level trough as it moves toward the Mississippi River
Valley. These small changes should result in lower surface pressures
along the cold front with stronger backing of surface winds as a
QLCS approaches from the west. The slower timing should also allow
SBCAPE values to increase into the range of 1500-2500 J/kg across
the western half of Alabama before storms arrive. A QLCS with a
sizable damaging wind and tornado threat appears likely particularly
west of a line from Gadsden to Montgomery. A couple of strong
tornadoes (EF2-EF3) cannot be ruled out along and northwest of a
line from Demopolis to Birmingham, where forecast hodographs
indicate 0-1km shear of 30-40kt with clockwise curvature. This
potential may be associated with a couple of isolated supercells
ahead of or embedded within the QLCS. The threat should gradually
diminish across our eastern areas as the convective line loses
forward momentum and moves into weaker instability during the
evening and overnight hours. The severe threat will probably end
around 2 AM in our southeastern counties.

The passage of a cold front will bring cooler conditions for Sunday.
Rainfall should exit into Georgia during the morning hours, leading
to a somewhat breezy and cool afternoon.

87/Grantham

.LONG TERM...
Sunday Night through Saturday

Drying conditions will be in place Sunday night as cold air
advection again returns to the area. Temperatures will be in the 30s
and low 40s again with the coldest temperatures in the north. Lows
on Tuesday morning will be chilly as well with 30s and 40s possible.
Will need to watch the trends for frost potential each morning, but
right now Tuesday morning looks to be the better chance with lighter
winds.

An extended period of dry and tranquil weather is expected through
the upcoming workweek. The only slight chance of rain may come
Wednesday afternoon and evening as a moisture-starved front moves
through. Models are indicating a little bit more moisture now, so
will stick with 20 to 30 PoPs. Our next weather system should arrive
the following weekend. Models are not as impressive with this
system, but it will be one to watch as we get closer to the time
frame.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Primary concern is for TSRA and high winds as severe storms impact
portions of the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Line of
strong to severe storms capable of producing high winds, small
hail and isolated tornadoes will impact TCL from issuance time
through 21Z followed by a decrease in TSRA but RA will persist.
TSRA onset time more likely toward 20Z at BHM/EET and toward 21Z
at ASN/ANB. Further south, TSRA becomes likely toward 00Z but SHRA
may develop beforehand but confidence is too low to mention at
this time. Strong south winds 10-20 kts with gusts to 35 kts
possible ahead of the line of storms with higher winds possible
in/near strong convection. Behind the line expect a few hours of
+RA with southwest to west low level winds 10-20 kts with some
gusts to 25 kts possible. Conditions will improve tonight west to
east as the surface pressure gradient begins to relax with the
convective activity departing to the east with SHRA decreasing in
coverage with time.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and storms will slide through the area today, tonight, and
Sunday morning. Strong to severe storms are possible during the
afternoon and evening as the system progresses from west to east.
Drier Monday and Tuesday. There are no fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  59  37  60  36 / 100  50  10   0   0
Anniston    56  61  37  60  37 / 100  60  10   0   0
Birmingham  53  60  40  62  41 / 100  30   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  50  61  39  64  40 / 100  10   0   0   0
Calera      52  61  39  62  41 / 100  30   0   0   0
Auburn      60  62  40  61  41 / 100  90   0   0   0
Montgomery  55  64  40  65  41 / 100  50   0   0   0
Troy        57  64  41  65  41 / 100  70   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following
counties: Autauga...Bibb...Blount...Chilton...Dallas...Fayette...
Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lowndes...Marengo...Marion...
Perry...Pickens...Shelby...Sumter...Tuscaloosa...Walker...
Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
422 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-151230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
422 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe storms are likely today into tonight across the forecast area.
The highest threat appears to be along and west of a line from
Montgomery to Gadsden, with a lower threat to the east. The threat
will begin around 11 AM in the West and continue until 2 AM Sunday in
the Southeast. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the main threats,
and a couple of stronger tornadoes cannot be ruled out along and
northwest of a line from Demopolis to Birmingham.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 4 inches could lead to isolated flash
flooding this afternoon into tonight. The best chance of flash
flooding will generally be across the western half of the area, or
along and west of the Interstate 65 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Due to heavy rainfall, minor river flooding is expected Sunday
through Wednesday in the Tombigbee and Sucarnoochee River basins.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
from late this morning into early Sunday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1057 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

ALZ012-022-141715-
Pickens AL-Lamar AL-
1057 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PICKENS AND SOUTHERN
LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1057 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Caledonia to Bigbee Valley. Movement was
northeast at 60 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Reform, Millport, Carrollton, Pickensville, Kennedy, Ethelsville,
Cody, North Pickens Airport, McShan, Shaw, Owens, Star, Hightogy,
Forest and Melborne.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3366 8826 3374 8795 3353 8795 3352 8793
      3325 8795 3323 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 237DEG 51KT 3364 8832 3327 8835

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1223 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

ALZ014-015-141800-
Walker AL-Winston AL-
1223 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WALKER AND WINSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lynn, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Haleyville, Carbon Hill, Lynn, Arley, Double Springs,
Addison, Kansas, Nauvoo, Eldridge, Curry, Houston Recreational Area,
Camp McDowell, Nesmith, Ashbank, Brushy Lake, Poplar Springs,
Ashridge, Falls City and Moreland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8711 3399 8711 3399 8715 3397 8714
      3396 8711 3390 8710 3387 8764 3407 8764
      3431 8762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 246DEG 35KT 3400 8757

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1257 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

ALZ015-141900-
Walker AL-
1257 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALKER COUNTY UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 1256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oakman, or 12 miles southwest of Jasper, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Sumiton, Cordova, Dora, Parrish, Oakman, Sipsey, Gorgas Steam
Plant, Gorgas, Rocky Hollow, Burnwell, Beloit, Quinton, Lynns Park,
Empire, Holly Grove, Powellville, Corona, Townley and Goodsprings.

LAT...LON 3390 8710 3389 8701 3384 8695 3381 8695
      3377 8702 3366 8706 3366 8709 3360 8719
      3355 8719 3354 8723 3352 8725 3353 8727
      3351 8727 3351 8732 3359 8732 3360 8742
      3369 8742 3369 8748 3388 8743 3391 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 257DEG 30KT 3372 8742

25/Owen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
102 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

ALZ030>032-039-141900-
Greene AL-Hale AL-Sumter AL-Marengo AL-
102 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARENGO...SOUTHERN GREENE...HALE
AND SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

At 102 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Union to near Butler. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Demopolis, Eutaw, Greensboro, Linden, Jefferson, Moundville,
Forkland, Thomaston, Akron, Boligee, Sweet Water, Epes, Newbern,
Myrtlewood, Faunsdale, Dayton, Nanafalia, Consul, Thornhill and
Magnolia.

LAT...LON 3271 8813 3301 8769 3300 8742 3284 8742
      3266 8747 3265 8753 3231 8752 3227 8747
      3225 8752 3213 8752 3213 8762 3201 8762
      3199 8767 3200 8811 3205 8812 3208 8804
      3216 8801 3228 8802 3231 8793 3231 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 239DEG 42KT 3298 8786 3204 8814

25/Owen