Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Birmingham, AL

985 
WWUS54 KBMX 192038
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
338 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALC027-192047-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180319T2115Z/
Clay AL-
338 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for east central
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3340 8565 3349 8564 3349 8536 3350 8535
      3348 8530 3333 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 268DEG 32KT 3350 8555 

$$

ALC111-192115-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-180319T2115Z/
Randolph AL-
338 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...

At 337 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fosters Cross
Roads, or 10 miles south of Heflin, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Woodland, Fosters Cross Roads, Morrison Cross Roads, Graham and
Newell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for east central
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3340 8565 3349 8564 3349 8536 3350 8535
      3348 8530 3333 8528
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 268DEG 32KT 3350 8555 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

17/KLAWS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
305 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.UPDATE...
MESOSCALE UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Confidence has increased in the potential for explosive supercell
thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight
especially along and north of a line from Tuscaloosa to Calera to
Wedowee. A dangerous environment will also be in place south of
this line, but initiation of storms and storm coverage is
questionable.

Currently, surface winds have veered to the southwest across most
of the area following the passage of a warm front. Normally this
would yield lower dewpoints and overall moisture quality, but this
does not appear to be the case. Dewpoints are holding in the mid
to upper 60s upstream across MS. Moisture quality should not be an
issue as this event progresses.

This event will hinge on evolution of the surface to 850mb wind
fields in response to the approaching upper-level trough. We are
already seeing this response across the northern half of MS where
winds are south to southeast near Tupelo and Columbus. Hi-res
models appear to be getting a better handle on the mesoscale
features and are slowly trending more aggressive with surface
pressure troughing and backing of winds in the 23-03z time frame.
HRRR guidance suggests the potential for 0-1km shear to exceed
40kts. This amount of shear combined with SBCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg,
supports a risk for a few long-track tornadoes. A violent tornado
cannot be ruled out. The best chance of these enhanced ingredients
coming together for long-track tornadoes appears to be from I-65
eastward and as far south as Shelby, Talladega, Clay, and Randolph
counties.

Balloon launches are planned for 330 PM, 6 PM, and 730 PM to sample
critical changes in the low-level wind environment.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Isolated showers and storms now developing this afternoon. This will
be the first of two rounds of potentially severe storms to affect
Central Alabama this taf cycle. Coverage is not expected to be
widespread this afternoon, and have opted for SHRA or SHRA VCTS
wording right now. There will be a lull in activity from west to
east late this afternoon before a stronger line of storms moves
through the area tonight. This line will be severe, but storms along
the line will be broken and have again opted for VCTS for now.
Behind the line, expect MVFR cigs.

Winds will be from the south to southwest this afternoon and
evening, possibly gusty at times. If a strong to severe storm passes
over or near a terminal, winds will increase significantly for a
brief period of time. Generally, behind the line of storms tonight,
winds will become southwesterly to westerly.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers are possible this morning as a warm
front lifts north of the area. Low clouds will be in place across
the area, with some patchy fog generally south of a Geiger to
Montgomery line. Severe thunderstorms are expected during the late
afternoon and evening hours as a line of storms moves through the
area from west to east. Light showers are possible Tuesday, before
dry conditions arrive by Wednesday. RH values will be elevated the
next couple days. Low clouds and patchy fog are possible again on
Monday night. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1138 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-201945-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1138 AM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook Through Tonight.

Scattered severe storms are possible across all of Central Alabama
this afternoon, ahead of an approaching front. The primary threats
with these storms are damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes.

A more significant threat of severe storms, including strong
tornadoes, is expected late this afternoon and tonight as a front
moves through the area. These storms will move from west to east,
entering northwest Central Alabama as early as 4PM and exiting
southeast Central Alabama as late as 2AM Tuesday morning. The
greatest potential for strong tornadoes is north of a line from
Sulligent to Birmingham to Anniston. However, tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging winds are possible area wide.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Cooler air moving in behind the system will result in the potential
for lows at or below freezing across parts of north central Alabama
Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be
needed through early Tuesday morning.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
221 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

ALZ026-027-192000-
Talladega AL-St. Clair AL-
221 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TALLADEGA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 221 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Coosa Island, or near Pell City, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Talladega, Pell City, Lincoln, Munford, Grant Town, Logan
Martin Lake, Talladega Superspeedway, Honda Manufacturing Of Alabama,
Coosa Island, Talladega Municipal Airport, Country Club Estates, St.
Clair County Airport, Eastaboga, Camp Mac, Jackson Shoals, Jenifer,
Cropwell and Howells Cove.

LAT...LON 3354 8580 3350 8585 3350 8590 3348 8590
      3343 8638 3350 8638 3350 8644 3368 8612
      3367 8605 3365 8603 3360 8602 3360 8600
      3359 8599 3358 8580
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 249DEG 28KT 3348 8632

17/KLAWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
252 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     HAIL             2 ENE SAYRE             33.73N 86.94W
03/19/2018  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL ONE INCH IN DIAMETER REPORTED BY
            SPOTTER.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
307 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     HAIL             OXFORD                  33.61N 85.84W
03/19/2018  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR OXFORD.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             MOUNT CHEAHA            33.49N 85.81W
03/19/2018  E1.50 INCH       CLEBURNE           AL   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED PING PONG BALL TO GOLF BALL SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
319 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             3 NNE MOUNT CHEAHA      33.53N 85.79W
03/19/2018  E1.50 INCH       CLEBURNE           AL   PUBLIC

            PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL COVERING DRIVEWAY.

&&

JH