Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
345 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Through Tonight.

Upper level and surface ridge show a weakening trend today, with
cooler mid level temperatures. Weak east to southeast flow has
allowed for increased moisture. As a result, shower and storm
coverage this afternoon has been greater than the last several
days. Some storms could be strong this afternoon, and cannot rule
out a few wind gusts that could bring down a large limb or
weakened tree. This activity will diminish after sunset. With
increased rain coverage today, better chance for localized, light
fog late tonight. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

14

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered showers and storms will continue into Thursday and
Friday with a weak upper-level trough over the region. However,
a shift in the pattern is expected for the weekend and into early
next week. An upper-level ridge may become dominant across the
eastern CONUS and the western Atlantic. This setup is fairly
classic for early September, featuring tropical waves and a long
fetch of deep-layer easterly flow from Bermuda to the Gulf of
Mexico. Low-level diffluence around the western edge of the ridge
should favor somewhat drier air across our forecast area, with
higher quality moisture closer to the Gulf Coast. Convection may
be rather isolated during the period, with perhaps slightly
greater coverage across the southern counties.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

--VFR conditions outside of (mainly) diurnally-driven showers and
 thunderstorms today and Thursday--

As of 17:45Z/12:45PM, cumulus clouds were widespread across
Central Alabama, with clusters of showers and thunderstorms. I've
gone with VCSH as prevailing with TSRA tempo'd as updrafts have
not been very robust so far, resulting in mainly short-lived pulse
showers and very isolated lightning. However, given eventual clustering
and outflow interactions through the afternoon, thunderstorms
could form near any terminal.

VCSH been carried a bit further into the evening compared to a
typical day, and will monitor for any necessary extension of
lightning. While fair clouds are carried through the rest of the
night, I can't rule out additional pop-ups across Central
Alabama, though coverage won't be as high as the afternoon.
Patchy fog is possible overnight into early morning.

For Thursday, expect another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Activity will be most active in the afternoon-to-
evening time frame, though some early-bird showers are possible.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected each
day, through the end of the work week. Slightly less rain
coverage expected over the weekend. With moisture gradually
increasing, patchy fog will be possible each morning, but location
will be determined by the previous day's rain activity. There are
no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  90  70  88  69 /  40  50  30  40  20
Anniston    70  90  70  89  70 /  30  40  30  40  20
Birmingham  72  90  72  90  72 /  40  50  30  40  20
Tuscaloosa  72  91  72  91  72 /  40  50  30  40  20
Calera      70  88  70  89  71 /  40  50  30  40  20
Auburn      70  87  70  89  71 /  30  40  30  40  20
Montgomery  71  90  71  90  72 /  30  50  30  40  20
Troy        70  88  70  89  71 /  30  50  30  40  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
349 AM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-301200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
349 AM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
524 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2018

ALZ011-292300-
Marion AL-
524 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MARION COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM CDT...

At 524 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brinn, or near Hamilton, moving west at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Weston, Brinn, Tessner, Marion County Public Lake, Pearces
Mill and Rankin Fite Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 8778 3408 8777 3404 8799 3405 8799
      3406 8806 3428 8808
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 086DEG 16KT 3417 8787

05