Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Birmingham, AL

884 
WWUS54 KBMX 212218
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
518 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

ALC029-111-212300-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-180721T2300Z/
Randolph AL-Cleburne AL-
518 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH AND SOUTHEASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTIES...

At 518 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Morrison Cross
Roads, or 9 miles north of Wedowee, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Ranburne, Woodland, Morrison Cross Roads, Fosters Cross Roads,
Graham, Newell, Micaville, Napoleon and Trickem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3344 8561 3357 8545 3356 8542 3354 8532
      3354 8531 3332 8527 3328 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 306DEG 23KT 3344 8546 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

89^GSatterwhite

200 
WWUS54 KBMX 212233
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
533 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

ALC029-212243-
/O.CAN.KBMX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-180721T2300Z/
Cleburne AL-
533 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
east central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3328 8541 3344 8561 3350 8554 3349 8536
      3350 8535 3349 8533 3349 8532 3348 8530
      3332 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 308DEG 22KT 3335 8538 

$$

ALC111-212300-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-180721T2300Z/
Randolph AL-
533 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN RANDOLPH COUNTY...

At 533 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Woodland, or
near Wedowee, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Woodland, Morrison Cross Roads, Fosters Cross Roads, Graham, Newell,
Micaville and Napoleon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3328 8541 3344 8561 3350 8554 3349 8536
      3350 8535 3349 8533 3349 8532 3348 8530
      3332 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 308DEG 22KT 3335 8538 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

89^GSatterwhite

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
256 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Near Term and Fire Weather Discussion.

&&

Near Term...
Through Early Evening.

A couple storms have developed over the last hour across east
Alabama, and seeing a more developed cu field across portions of the
northeast. Expect this to be the primary area of development. The
mesoscale discussion issued earlier today remains valid (below).
Although storm coverage will be low, any storm that develops could
be strong to severe through early evening.

14

&&

MESOSCALE UPDATE.

--Low-confidence severe weather threat this afternoon--

As of 16:25Z/11:25AM, an outflow boundary from an earlier
thunderstorm complex that moved through GA (and clipping east
Alabama) was oriented along a northwest-to-southeast axis from
north-central Alabama to southeast Alabama, quite close to the
I-65 corridor. I doubt this boundary will move any farther west
due to low-level westerly flow to its west. Surface observations
show ~southerly surface winds near and east of the outflow
boundary. High-res guidance moves the outflow boundary eastward
during the afternoon, and this is the only area across central
Alabama where surface winds will have an opportunity to feature a
backed flow (westerly elsewhere). Winds aloft will remain veered,
with speeds/shear on the high end for this time of year,
alongside a moderate-to-strongly unstable air mass.

The big question is if storms will form this afternoon, and how
many. As has been the trend with this event, forecast guidance has
a wide range of solutions. The current thinking is that a few
afternoon storms could form near the position of the outflow
boundary/east Alabama where surface convergence will exist, with
some threat of severe weather: damaging winds and hail up to
quarter size. Within the slight risk area only/east Alabama,
there is a conditional threat for storm rotation/an isolated
tornado, but is on the (very) low end as low-level flow isn't all
that strong, with relatively weak SRH even along the boundary.
This may end up being within a fairly short window as the feature
moves eastward across the state line/out of our forecast area. For
the Marginal Risk area/west Alabama, there is an even lower
confidence of any thunderstorm formation. The general time frame
for storms is 2PM-8PM.

We will continue to monitor the setup for any amendments through
the afternoon.

89^GSatterwhite

.LONG TERM...
Sunday through Friday.

The cold front will slowly slide southward through the area on
Sunday and should be near the I-85 corridor by sunset. Look for
the front to actually clear the area by Sunday night, but then we
shift our attention to the north and the path of the upper low.
Models have come into a little bit more of a consensus on the path
of the upper low swinging through northern GA and into Central AL
on Monday and then setting up shop for several days. This scenario
would place the highest rain chances in the eastern half each
afternoon through Wednesday. By Thursday the upper low opens up
and begins to elongate across the Southeast, before the energy
slides east ahead of the next front that will likely hold of until
the beginning of next week. Highest rain chances for Friday and
Saturday will be across the north, while the southern areas could
dry out some. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s with the cloud
cover through midweek and then rise back into the low 90s by the
weekend.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Somewhat complicated forecast in terms of convective potential for
this afternoon and evening across central Alabama. For the bulk of
the time period, expect VFR conditions at all the TAF sites.
Scattered to broken cumulus will remain in the 4-5 kft range
through this evening with a general west/northwest wind at 10-12
knots to prevail through sunset.

Conditions will become somewhat unstable again this
afternoon/evening in the wake of morning scattered storms. The
best chance of redevelopment will be across eastern Alabama into
southern sections and that is where VCTS will be carried from
roughly 22z through late evening.

Winds will be light and perhaps variable overnight into early
Sunday.

15/CBD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible through tonight as
a front moves slowly through the area. Tomorrow through early next
week, an upper low will move over the region, leading to higher rain
chances, especially across the east. This will also bring slightly
cooler temperatures. Localized fog will be possible each morning
over the next couple of days where rainfall occurs during the
previous afternoon and evening. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  88  68  85  68 /  30  40  20  60  20
Anniston    70  88  68  85  68 /  30  30  30  60  30
Birmingham  74  90  71  87  70 /  30  20  10  50  10
Tuscaloosa  73  92  72  89  71 /  40  10  10  30  10
Calera      74  90  70  87  69 /  40  20  10  40  10
Auburn      72  89  70  86  70 /  40  30  30  50  30
Montgomery  73  93  72  90  70 /  40  30  10  50  20
Troy        73  92  72  89  70 /  40  30  20  50  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
318 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-222330-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
318 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Severe storms are possible from now through 8 PM roughly from
counties along and east of the Interstate 65 corridor in Central
Alabama. These storms may be isolated to scattered in nature and
capable of producing damaging winds along with quarter size hail.
Forecast confidence remains low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not anticipated at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
This Afternoon and Tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
437 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             CHALAFINNEE             33.54N 85.65W
07/21/2018  E0.75 INCH       CLEBURNE           AL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL CAPTURED IN VIDEO
            NEAR CHALAFINNEE IN CLEBURNE COUNTY.

&&

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
448 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             WOODLAND                33.37N 85.40W
07/21/2018  E0.75 INCH       RANDOLPH           AL   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR WOODLAND IN
            RANDOLPH COUNTY.

&&

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
451 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             WOODLAND                33.37N 85.40W
07/21/2018  E1.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           AL   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL NOW REPORTED NEAR
            WOODLAND IN RANDOLPH COUNTY.

&&

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
454 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

ALZ021-212230-
Cleburne AL-
454 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CLEBURNE COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 453 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Piedmont, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fruithurst, Edwardsville, Oak Level, Coleman Lake And Campground and
Liberty Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3368 8547 3379 8561 3380 8560 3380 8559
      3384 8559 3385 8564 3388 8564 3388 8560
      3389 8560 3389 8555 3379 8536 3378 8536
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 307DEG 29KT 3384 8559

89^GSatterwhite

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
457 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             HEFLIN                  33.65N 85.59W
07/21/2018  E0.50 INCH       CLEBURNE           AL   PUBLIC

            DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN THE OLD
            HOPEWELL AREA NEAR HEFLIN.

&&

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
459 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             WEDOWEE                 33.31N 85.49W
07/21/2018  E1.75 INCH       RANDOLPH           AL   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR WEDOWEE.

&&

05