Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Birmingham, AL

847 
WGUS74 KBMX 170140
FFSBMX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
840 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

ALC127-170300-
/O.CON.KBMX.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180717T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Walker AL-
840 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN WALKER COUNTY...

At 839 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain due to a 
thunderstorm over Japser and surrounding areas. Around three inches 
of rain has already fallen and another inch or so is possible. Flash 
flooding is occurring.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Jasper, Cordova, Carbon Hill, Nauvoo, Curry, Smith Lake, Cedrum Area,
Holly Grove, Manchester, Lupton, Gamble, Townley, Boldo and Walker
County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8722 3398 8720 3399 8720 3399 8715
      3397 8714 3396 8712 3394 8711 3375 8717
      3385 8752 3400 8748

$$

75

617 
WGUS54 KBMX 170253
FFWBMX
ALC127-170500-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FF.W.0032.000000T0000Z-180717T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
953 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2018

The National Weather Service in Birmingham has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern Walker County in central Alabama...

* Until midnight CDT.

* At 952 PM CDT, local law enforcement reported heavy rain across 
  the warned area. 4 to 5 inches of rain have fallen and much of the 
  rain has ended. Flash flooding is occurring and it will not 
  recede for a hour or so.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Jasper, Cordova, Carbon Hill, Nauvoo, Curry, Smith Lake, Cedrum
  Area, Holly Grove, Manchester, Lupton, Gamble, Townley, Boldo and
  Walker County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8722 3398 8720 3399 8720 3399 8715
      3397 8714 3396 8712 3394 8711 3375 8717
      3385 8752 3400 8748

$$

75

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
713 PM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.UPDATE...
For 00Z Aviation and This Evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

This evening...Shower and thunderstorm redevelopment is occurring
along a few boundaries/moisture axis across north central areas
mainly just north of I-20. Additional development is continuing in
the south. Outflows from this ongoing convection will likely kick
off more development for the next few hours. SBCAPES have
increased to 3500 after the clouds have cleared. With precip water
around 2 inches, this should be enough fuel. Still expect
coverage to ultimately decrease with the loss of daytime heating.
Have installed scattered pops for the evening hours at all
locations.

A few weak MCV's over the area, one just eats of BHM and another
in the northeast. Convection this morning has dented the potential
of afternoon thunderstorms today in many locations, but some
redevelopment is possible. Cumulus field is rather limited and
was generally south and near both state lines. An upper level
trough was influencing our weather today as the trough was digging
slightly southward and will continue into the overnight hours and
Tuesday. SBCAPE values are less than 2000 except for the near the
state lines. There are a few upstream wave associated withe upper
trough that will inch this way too. At this time, made
adjustments to pops but did leave it rather higher central as some
light rain or redevelopment may take place especially if some sun
can come back out. The highest pops this evening will be south
and southwest with a decrease in coverage overnight. Tuesdays pops
have been lowered due to some drier air filtering in from the
north aloft. A surface front still looks like it will follow on
Tuesday with a high gradient between north and south pops.

75

.LONG TERM...
Tuesday through Sunday.

On Tuesday, we are looking at a low pressure system over Quebec
moving eastward and dragging a front across the northern half of
Eastern Conus. However, across the southern half of Eastern Conus,
the upper flow will be much weaker and not favorable for pushing
a front completely through Alabama. This is not surprising since
it is July, but the front could make it into the northern half of
the state before stalling. Rain chances will be well above normal
for Tuesday with warm temperatures, lots of available moisture,
and a front nearby.

For Wednesday, we should see a north/south orientation for
precipitation chances and dew points with a lingering stalled
boundary somewhere likely across Central Alabama and high
pressure building in from the north. For overnight lows on
Thursday morning, readings should not be quite as warm and not as
muggy with a surface ridge across much of Eastern Conus and a
stalled boundary remaining across the southern part of Central
Alabama with weak flow aloft. Rain chances will be somewhat lower
for Thursday with not as much focus and more diurnally driven
activity.

By Friday, we move into a tricky upper northwest flow pattern. Our
previous surface front should be taken back northward as a warm
front with low level moisture increasing behind it and higher dew
points returning to the state. Going with mainly chance pops as we
head into next weekend. Confidence is low with extended guidance
not agreeing on how deep upper troughing will become over Eastern
Conus along with the resulting intensity of any disturbances that
may be flowing through this upper troughing ahead of another
approaching surface front by the end of next weekend.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Several boundaries of varying scales are around Central Alabama
this evening. Showers and thunderstorms may pop up along these
focus points for the next few hours. The most likely locations for
activity appear to be MGM/TOI/BHM/TCL. Changes will be made
according to radar if necessary, but at least scattered coverage.
Will install MVFR/IFR ceilings again late tonight as low level
moisture remains very high. Some fog will also be present and
dropped most spots to MVFR. These restrictions mainly occur
between 08-14z and will rise to VFR through the morning. Showers
and thunderstorms are possible again on Tuesday with PROB30 added
to all locations after 17z.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Above normal coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening
showers and thunderstorms is expected through at least Tuesday as
a weak front moves towards the area. Localized fog will be
possible each morning where rainfall occurs during the previous
afternoon and evening. There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  90  71  90  69 /  40  50  30  30  10
Anniston    72  90  72  90  70 /  40  40  40  30  20
Birmingham  74  91  73  91  72 /  40  40  40  30  10
Tuscaloosa  73  93  74  92  73 /  40  50  40  40  10
Calera      72  91  73  91  71 /  40  40  40  40  20
Auburn      72  88  73  90  72 /  50  40  40  60  20
Montgomery  74  91  75  92  74 /  50  40  40  60  20
Troy        74  90  73  91  72 /  50  50  40  70  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1009 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-171815-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
1009 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

05