Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
706 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Today and tonight.

Overall the higher chance of scattered to numerous showers and
storms will continue across the region as the main upper level
disturbance remains within the vicinity of Central Alabama. There
are several leftover boundaries and meso-lows associated with this
upper level disturbance and will be the determination of the main
focus across the area. The best chances will be  from Birmingham and
points south, depending on the exact location of the boundaries and
meso-lows as the heating of the day increases. Much like the past
several days, some areas will see rain and others will not in the
higher probability areas but this is where the better features will
reside. Clouds and precipitation will play havoc on temperatures
again, but look for much of the same with 90s in the north and low
to mid 80s in the south. Activity will continue through Midnight,
while expanding northwest during the afternoon.

16

.LONG TERM...
Monday through Sunday.

Monday may be the last day we have to deal with this persistent
upper level meso low that has been in the vicinity for the past
several days. By Monday, models pick it up in Central Georgia, which
will give our eastern counties a better chance to see afternoon
showers/storms. This meso low shifts eastward into GA/SC Tuesday as
the high pressure builds westward over Central AL.

Not too much changes weather-wise across our area Tuesday through
the end of the week. The high pressure centered over Central AL
keeps much of the tropical moisture plume west of the area. However,
enough moisture exists to allow for the typical summertime diurnal
thunderstorm activity. Therefore, I've kept PoPs at 30-40% for the
afternoons and 10-20% in the overnight hours.

Towards the end of the week, both the GFS and ECMWF pick up on a
trough moving through the Central Plains and into the Ohio River
Valley. The ridging across the Gulf States flattens slightly
Thursday and Friday as a few shortwave impulses moving the base of
the upper trough. These impulses will likely aid in afternoon
lift across Central AL, leading to higher coverage of showers and
storms Thursday through Saturday. Therefore, I've edged PoPs up to
the roughly 50% mark for the end of the week.

Much of the upcoming week will see seasonal diurnal temperatures.
Both NAEFS and ENS show geopotential heights within the normal
range of variability for this time of year, so I don't have any
reason to stray from model blends for the high/low temps in the
extended period. I wouldn't rule out some patchy fog each morning
generally where rain showers developed the previous afternoon, but
I don't have enough confidence to put it in the forecast for any
specific location.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

As the upper low moves slowly northward, showers or storms will
likely develop and move into TAF sites after 15Z in the south and
the north after 19 to 21Z. Continued with prob30 in the north but
added in timing for showers and vcts in the south.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected this afternoon.
Rain chances are lower for Monday, but cannot rule out at least
isolated/scattered coverage during afternoon, especially in the
east. Light fog and/or low clouds are possible each morning, and
most likely will be near locations that receive rainfall the
previous day/evening. RH values remain well above critical values.
There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     86  70  90  70  91 /  50  20  40  20  30
Anniston    86  70  90  70  92 /  50  30  40  20  30
Birmingham  88  71  91  72  93 /  60  20  30  10  30
Tuscaloosa  89  71  93  72  93 /  70  40  20  10  30
Calera      86  70  90  70  91 /  60  30  30  10  30
Auburn      82  70  89  71  90 /  70  30  40  20  40
Montgomery  87  71  91  71  92 /  70  30  30  10  40
Troy        87  70  91  71  91 /  70  40  30  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
409 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

ALZ011>015-017>050-181215-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
409 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.