Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1243 AM CDT Sat Aug 4 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 4 2018

Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late this evening,
mainly associated with a potent mid/upper level shortwave impulse
moving east from southwest into south central ND at this time. The
stronger storm activity was across the southwest and south central.
Behind the storms, the atmosphere was quite stable, though gusty
northwest winds for an hour or so are possible in a wake low.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue moving east
across central and into eastern ND during the morning hours.

Otherwise forecast is on track.

UPDATE Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Forecast is on track. With the arrival of mid level forcing,
convection has increased along with coverage.

UPDATE
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

A few towers have gone up south of Garrison Dam, though orphan
anvils are the only result as convection is having a hard time
with lack of good mid/upper level forcing. Still expect to see a
few storms along the southwest to northeast orientated boundary
this evening, some marginally severe with decent shear present.
Better chances late evening and overnight as mid level waves
trigger better development across the southwest and south
central.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

Hot temperatures this afternoon and severe weather potential late
this afternoon through Saturday afternoon highlights the short
term forecast.

We have hit 101 degrees so far at the Bismarck airport, which is
officially the hottest day of the year thus far. This is also the
first time this year we have hit 100. Currently, widespread
temperatures in the upper 90s are being observed across western
and central North Dakota, thus more readings in the 100s are still
expected through the afternoon.

At the mid levels, a northern stream trough continues to approach
the region from the west. Numerous shortwave impulses will
interact with a prefrontal surface trough and trailing cold
front through the night. Isolated to scattered storms will
initiate along the surface trough over western North Dakota in the
5 pm to 7 pm CDT time frame before increasing in coverage and
intensity as they move east. With moderate to strong instability
and fairly weak deep layer shear, a few of these storms may
become strong to marginally severe with large hail up to the size
of a quarter and wind gusts up to 60 mph. Another round of more
numerous thunderstorms may develop along the trailing front over
the southwest around 9 pm to 11 pm CDT and move across the south
central through the night. Latest CAM guidance suggests these
storms will approach the Bismarck Mandan area around the 1 am to
3 am CDT time frame. These storms could potentially evolve into a
more widespread severe threat as shear will be on the increase.
Storms will exit the James River valley by early Saturday morning,
leaving a mostly dry Saturday in their wake.

Another round of thunderstorms are forecast to develop late Saturday
afternoon. The favored area for a few strong to severe storms
appears to be the corridor of our eastern forecast area, from the
Turtle Mountains to the southern James River valley. The
strongest shear and instability will overlap better than today
across these areas, so a few supercells will be possible. Details
should become clearer with guidance tonight and tomorrow morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

The long term forecast features various weak short waves moving
through the building west coast ridge that will bring periodic
chances of hit and miss showers and thunderstorms. Hot and dry
weather looks to be the story through this period with very little
signal of any widespread precipitation under the influence of the
ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 4 2018

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected to end at
KDIK, but continue at KBIS until around 09z or so. Mainly showers in
the vicinity at KMOT. KJMS is poised for scattered thunderstorms
after 08z or so. Aside from variable and gusty winds in and around
thunderstorms, we may see a period of an hour or so of gusty
northwest winds at KDIK and KBIS after the thunderstorms exit the
area. Precip chances should end after 15z Saturday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...JV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
639 PM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018

NDZ001>003-009-010-017-031-032-042345-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-McKenzie-Golden Valley-
Billings-
639 PM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018 /539 PM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible tonight across portions of western and
central North Dakota. The best chance for severe storms will be
over southwest North Dakota, central North Dakota, and the James
River valley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic chances of thunderstorms are forecast Saturday through
Monday. Widespread severe weather is not expected with these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ004-005-011>013-018>023-025-033>037-040>048-050-051-042345-
Bottineau-Rolette-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-
Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-
Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-
639 PM CDT Fri Aug 3 2018 /539 PM MDT Fri Aug 3 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, southeast North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening over
southwest and central North Dakota. A few of these storms may
become strong to severe. The main threats will be large hail up
to the size of a quarter, damaging winds up to 60 mph, locally
heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.

Additional thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are expected later
this evening and into early Saturday morning across southwestern
and south central North Dakota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a chance of thunderstorms across portions of central
North Dakota on Saturday, mainly across the James River Valley. A
few storms could be strong to severe, with large hail up the size
of a quarter, damaging winds up to 60 mph, heavy rainfall, and
dangerous lightning.

Periodic chances of thunderstorms are forecast Saturday through
Monday. Widespread severe weather is not expected with these
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening across southwest
North Dakota, central North Dakota, and the James River valley.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1009 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             HETTINGER               46.00N 102.64W
08/03/2018  E0.75 INCH       ADAMS              ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL IS ONGOING AT THE TIME OF CALL.

&&

RK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1013 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HAIL             HETTINGER               46.00N 102.64W
08/03/2018  E1.25 INCH       ADAMS              ND   PUBLIC

            HAILING AT THE TIME OF CALL.

&&

RK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2018

NDZ005-012-013-040545-
McHenry ND-Rolette ND-Pierce ND-
1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN
MCHENRY AND SOUTHEASTERN ROLETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1138 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles south of Rolla to near Butte. Movement was
east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rugby, Rolla, Rolette, Drake, Anamoose, Balta, Wolford, Berwick,
Balfour, Mylo, Kief, Silva, George Lake, Nanson and Orrin.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Campers should move to a sturdy shelter until these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 9949 4837 9985 4811 9985 4785 10020
      4785 10086 4894 9956 4894 9953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 267DEG 12KT 4878 9954 4787 10066

HOLLAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1249 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2018

NDZ020-021-034-035-042-045-040700-
Grant ND-Oliver ND-Sioux ND-McLean ND-Morton ND-Burleigh ND-
1249 AM CDT SAT AUG 4 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
UNTIL 200 AM CDT/100 AM MDT/...

At 1248 AM CDT/1148 PM MDT/, strong thunderstorms were clustered
along a line extending from 9 miles north of Mcdowell Dam Recreation
Area to 5 miles northeast of Heart Butte Dam to near Watauga.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bismarck, Mandan, Washburn, Glen Ullin, Elgin, Fort Yates, Selfridge,
Lincoln, New Salem, Wilton, Center, Carson, Flasher, New Leipzig,
Menoken, Wing, Almont, Solen, Cannon Ball and Regan.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 10200 4628 10200 4628 10205 4673 10209
      4698 10176 4724 10176 4724 10126 4727 10126
      4730 10110 4733 10075 4733 10011 4663 10065
      4659 10056 4657 10059 4653 10054 4645 10060
      4637 10055 4623 10056 4613 10063 4595 10051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 248DEG 24KT 4697 10068 4666 10173 4597 10152

HOLLAN

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