Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
127 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Continued showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight, a
few of which may be strong to marginally severe.

A slow moving closed upper level low will continue moving eastward
out of the Dakotas and into Minnesota tonight. Scattered showers
and storms will develop across western and central North Dakota
this afternoon and evening. Latest mesoanalysis indicates an
environment (2000 J/Kg CAPE, 30 knots of shear and steep lapse
rates) that is favorable for a few strong or even severe storms
this afternoon with hail up to quarter size possible and wind
gusts up to 50 mph. In addition to the hail threat, locally heavy
rainfall will be likely as these storms will be slow moving in a
moisture-rich atmosphere. Any storm that does become strong to
severe will likely not be long-lived, as the environment looks
supportive for pulse-like air mass thunderstorms rather than more
organized convection.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Drying out across western and central North Dakota Friday and
Saturday, with the next chance for severe weather arriving
Sunday.

A ridge will build in from the west on Friday as the upper level
low over Minnesota continues moving eastward into the Great Lakes
region. This will lead to a mainly dry day across western and
central North Dakota on Friday, with the latest blend of model
guidance suggesting pleasant temperatures with highs in the mid
70s to lower 80s.

The ridge axis will move over central North Dakota on Saturday,
leading to another dry and pleasant day with temperatures warming
up a bit more than Friday, into the low to mid 80s.

A shortwave trough with an associated surface cold front looks to
swing eastward through the area Saturday night and Sunday. This
front will be the focus for thunderstorm development. The
environment during this time looks favorable for severe weather,
especially Sunday afternoon and evening. The latest long range
model data agrees well on a sheared environment of 40 to 60 kts
of bulk shear, collocated with high instability and a cold front
moving through.

Behind this front, the synoptic scale flow aloft becomes nearly
zonal to northwest for Monday through Wednesday. A few weak
impulses look to be embedded within the large scale flow,
bringing more chances for showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Expect VFR cigs and visibilities at all terminals through the end
of the TAF forecast period. The main concern will be scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic winds are possible
near storms, along with locally heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
112 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-201815-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-
Foster-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-
Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-
La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
112 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018 /1212 PM MDT Thu Jul 19 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across western and central
North Dakota this afternoon and evening. The main hazards with
stronger storms will be large hail up to quarter size and wind
gusts up to 50 mph. Very heavy rainfall is also possible with the
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday. Some storms could be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters may be needed Sunday.

AJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
150 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

NDZ023-191915-
Wells ND-
150 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WELLS COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

At 149 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast of
Hurdsfield, or 19 miles south of Harvey, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bowdon and Chaseley.

Seek shelter inside a sturdy building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4753 9989 4757 9980 4744 9955 4735 9980
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 318DEG 5KT 4750 9980

AYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
203 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 E MONTPELIER          46.69N 98.52W
07/19/2018  M4.16 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL THUS FAR. THE PAST 1.62 INCHES
            HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. MINOR
            FLOODING.

&&

ZH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
312 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

NDZ004-005-192100-
Bottineau ND-Rolette ND-
312 PM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BOTTINEAU AND
SOUTHWESTERN ROLETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 312 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest of
Dunseith, or 14 miles southeast of Bottineau, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dunseith, Rolette, Overly and Thorne.

LAT...LON 4871 9974 4854 10001 4855 10014 4878 10029
      4887 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 321DEG 7KT 4874 10015

HOLLAN