Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
508 PM CDT Mon May 7 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 454 PM CDT Mon May 7 2018

GOESEast mesoscale sector number 2 imagery depicts a
congested/towering cumulus field continuing to build with
increased updraft sheltering along a convergence line from near
Glen Ullin to near Hettinger as of 2205 UTC. Thermodynamic and
shear profiles are marginally favorable for isolated quarter size
hail and wind gusts to 50 kts. However, moisture will be a
limiting factoring to a greater and more widespread threat.

Thereafter, will monitor convection currently across southeast
Montana that will propagate east into southwest North Dakota
between 01-03 UTC, spreading further east into the south central
through the night per CAM trends through the 20 UTC HRRR. Any
marginal severe threat would likely wane with sunset.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 7 2018

Widespread showers and thunderstorms highlight the short term
forecast.

An upper level low is currently centered over western Montana,
and is moving eastward towards North Dakota. Plenty of lift ahead
of the low with sufficient moisture and instability will lead to
numerous showers and thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday
for western and central North Dakota. Small hail and gusty winds
are possible in stronger thunderstorms tonight, with large hail up
to one inch and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph possible
across far southwest and south central North Dakota. Conditions
along the North Dakota/South Dakota border are the most favorable
for severe weather this evening and tonight, given high
instability with CAPE over 1000 J/kg and bulk wind shear in excess
of 30 kts as suggested by NAM BUFR soundings.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through
Tuesday as the center of the upper level low rotates through
North Dakota. The 12z iterations of the GFS/ECMWF both suggest
very weak wind shear tomorrow with little instability. For these
reasons, severe weather is not expected on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Mon May 7 2018

Temperatures trending to below average later this week with
continues chances for rainshowers before a dry pattern returns for
the weekend.

A shortwave will dive out of Canada and move through western and
central North Dakota Tuesday night through Wednesday, leading to
another round of rainshowers with a few weak thunderstorms
possible to the south where instability is modest. The process
will repeat itself on Thursday through Thursday night as another
shortwave moves through the area, albeit no thunder is expected
with the rainshowers on Thursday as the GFS/ECMWF show no CAPE.
This makes sense given the strong cold air advection behind the
upper level low on Thursday, leading to highs only in the low to
mid 50s across western and central North Dakota. Highs on Friday
also look to stay stuck in the 50s.

Friday through Monday look to be mainly dry across western and
central North Dakota as a split flow synoptic pattern develops and
northwest flow aloft dominates with no signs of any shortwaves or
fronts moving through. The latest suite of model guidance suggests
a gradual warmup beginning on Saturday with temperatures warming
into the 60s. Temperatures look to warm back into the 70s across
North Dakota by Monday as a ridge tries building in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 454 PM CDT Mon May 7 2018

Scattered thunderstorms across southwest North Dakota as of 22 UTC
will spread into south central North Dakota through the early
evening. Additional thunderstorms across southeast Montana will
overspread the southwest by 01-03 UTC, and move into the south
central through the late evening and overnight. A few storms could
be severe through sunset. Otherwise, rain showers with an
isolated embedded thunderstorm or two will continue across
northwest and north central North Dakota this evening. For
Tuesday, rain showers with a few thunderstorms and MVFR conditions
are expected across southern North Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...PA

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