Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 150317
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1017 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

NDC069-079-150326-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-180615T0345Z/
Pierce ND-Rolette ND-
1017 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIERCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROLETTE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for north central
North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4881 9953 4873 9953 4872 9952 4872 9949
      4837 9950 4849 10004 4860 9986 4869 9974
      4877 9967
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 282DEG 14KT 4854 9946 

$$

HOLLAN/CJS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
912 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 907 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

The severe weather threat seems to be limited across the far
south from a very strong cap as seen on the 00Z Bismarck
Sounding. As the front moves east and approaches the south
central, it should erode the cap, however our dewpoints at
Bismarck have fallen 20 degrees from near 70 to near 50. As the
dry air arrives the subsidence appears to be generating a weak
heat burst as temperatures rose to 87 at 9 pm at Bismarck.

UPDATE Issued at 719 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Updated the POPs with the HRRR Time lapse ensemble which generally
increased the POPs central and decreased them west as a dry west
windflow moves into the west. Otherwise widespread thunderstorms
expected central and far southwest this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

A tornado watch has been issued for northwest and north central
North Dakota until 11 pm CDT.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for most of southwest
and south central North Dakota until 11 pm CDT.

Short term forecast highlights center around a moderate and enhanced
risk of severe weather across western and central North Dakota
beginning this afternoon. The storm prediction center had upgraded
the severe threat across northern North Dakota into the moderate
risk for severe storms. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally
heavy rain will be the main threat with a non-zero tornado risk,
especially across our north.

This afternoon, an upper level low/trough was located over
Alberta/Saskatchewan/western Montana with several upper level
shortwave impulses moving northeast across Montana, south central
Canada, and into northwestern North Dakota. At the surface, a cold
front extended from southeastern Saskatchewan across the northwest
corner of North Dakota into eastern Montana. Ahead of the cold front
was a surface trough, separating 60sF dewpoints to the east with
40s/50s dewpoints to the west. While a mid-level h700 thermal cap
remains in place across central and eastern ND, west and north of
the surface cold front the thermal cap weakens. This is why
thunderstorms developed this morning and continued into this
afternoon along and northwest of the cold front. The storms moved
east across the northern tier of counties, the storm's dynamics
overcoming any mid-level capping mentioned previously.

Regarding the severe threat this afternoon/evening...a potent EML
has become established over the northern plains. PWAT values
increasing to 1.25-1.5 inches across north-central and eastern ND
will create a threat for heavy rainfall in areas that do see
convection through the evening hours.

Latest thinking is that convection is most likely to continue across
northwestern North Dakota where the cap has eroded near the
overspreading height falls and mid-level cooling.
The models continue to depict the environment over western and
central North Dakota consisting of MLCAPE values exceeding 2000-2500
J/kg and 55 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will
support supercells with large hail and damaging wind gusts. A non-
zero tornado risk will also be associated with supercells along our
far north where increased southeasterly surface winds enhance sfc-1
km SRH values.

The coverage of convective initiation and discrete storms further
south remains less confident due to the increased influence of the
capping inversion ahead of the surface trough and cold front.
Convection will be more likely along the advancing surface trough
and cold frontal axis through the evening, especially along our
south-central to southeast, where storm mode becomes linear and
transitions to a mostly damaging wind threat.

By daybreak Friday, the surface cold front should be in the Red
River Valley, with drier air moving in behind it. Friday should be a
dry day across our area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

The long term period is highlighted by several chances for
precipitation and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday night,
especially across southwest and south central North Dakota
southeast. The large upper level trough remains over the Pacific
Northwest and northern US Rockies through the weekend, then begins
to cutoff over Nevada/Idaho, essentially cutting off the stream of
upper level impulses streaming northeast towards North Dakota.

Southwest flow aloft continues through the weekend with multiple
impulses bringing showers and thunderstorms across our area. The
severe threat will be mostly contained further south of our area,
outside of the occasional storm threat in our far southeast counties
where instability may redevelop. High temperatures should be mainly
in the 65F to 75F range Saturday and Sunday through this active
weekend period. The possibility for continued rainfall seems to be
favoring our south and east through the weekend.

Upper level ridging builds early next week as the aforementioned
western low cuts off. Chances for precipitation remain uncertain
next week, though not completely unlikely in times where impulses
ride over the ridge aloft. A slow warming trend ensues with highs
reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s by Wednesday, and low to mid
80s on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 719 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Hazards to aviation continue to be thunderstorms this evening. A
surface low pressure trough with associated cold/warm fronts will
be the focus for thunderstorms tonight. Best chance for
thunderstorms KMOT-KBIS-KJMS tonight. VFR expected.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
851 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

NDZ023-025-033>037-041-042-044>048-050-051-160200-
Wells-Foster-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Hettinger-
Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
851 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 /751 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are forecast for this evening and tonight.
The main threats will be damaging wind with a secondary threat of
large hail. Slow moving storms will put down very heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend, however, the
severe weather threat will be low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are activated. Call reports in to the National Weather
Service in Bismarck on the spotter reporting number. Reports can
also be posted to our web page reporting form. Report any hail,
winds 40 mph or higher, funnel clouds, tornadoes, and rain
amounts. Report storm features like wall clouds and shelf clouds.

NDZ004-005-010>013-018>022-160200-
Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-Dunn-Mercer-
Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-
851 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 /751 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are forecast for this evening and tonight.
The main threats will be very large hail, damaging winds as high
as 80 mph, and tornadoes. A significant tornado is possible. Slow
moving storms will put down torrential rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend, however, the
severe weather threat will be low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are activated. Call reports in to the National Weather
Service in Bismarck on the spotter reporting number. Reports can
also be posted to our web page reporting form. Report any hail,
winds 40 mph or higher, funnel clouds, tornadoes, and rain
amounts. Report storm features like wall clouds and shelf clouds.

NDZ001>003-009-017-031-032-040-043-160200-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-McKenzie-Golden Valley-Billings-
Slope-Bowman-
851 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018 /751 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend, however, the
severe weather threat will be low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are activated. Call reports in to the National Weather
Service in Bismarck on the spotter reporting number. Reports can
also be posted to our web page reporting form. Report any hail,
winds 40 mph or higher, funnel clouds, tornadoes, and rain
amounts. Report storm features like wall clouds and shelf clouds.

waa

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
838 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             5 NNW OMEMEE            48.76N 100.40W
06/14/2018  E1.00 INCH       BOTTINEAU          ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

CJS/MH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
857 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 N WILLOW CITY         48.65N 100.29W
06/14/2018                   BOTTINEAU          ND   PUBLIC

&&

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
910 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 PM     HAIL             5 N KRAMER              48.76N 100.71W
06/14/2018  E2.50 INCH       BOTTINEAU          ND   STORM CHASER

&&

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
931 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 N BEULAH             47.41N 101.78W
06/14/2018  E65 MPH          MERCER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO HAD QUARTER SIZE DIAMETER HAIL AND
            ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN. THE RAIN FELL IN LESS
            THAN A HALF HOUR. HAIL AND WIND LASTED ABOUT
            5 MINUTES.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     TORNADO          ROLLA                   48.86N 99.61W
06/14/2018                   ROLETTE            ND   PUBLIC

            TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ONE HALF MILE EAST OF
            ROLLA. TOUCHED DOWN FOR LESS THAN A MINUTE
            IN A GRASS FIELD. THE DURATION OF THE
            TORNADO EVENT WAS 1 MINUTE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0935 PM     HAIL             8 WSW LOGAN             48.09N 101.30W
06/14/2018  E1.75 INCH       WARD               ND   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. LOCATION ESTIMATED.

&&

CJS/MH