Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Bismarck, ND

971 
WWUS53 KBIS 222302
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
502 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NDC085-222311-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180522T2345Z/
Sioux ND-
502 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SIOUX COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4605 10185 4606 10184 4606 10185 4607 10185
      4607 10191 4610 10197 4614 10200 4639 10193
      4624 10150 4603 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 201DEG 7KT 4615 10187 

$$

NDC037-222345-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180522T2345Z/
Grant ND-
502 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTY...

At 501 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 14 miles north of
Keldron, or 17 miles south of Elgin, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Grant County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4605 10185 4606 10184 4606 10185 4607 10185
      4607 10191 4610 10197 4614 10200 4639 10193
      4624 10150 4603 10177
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 201DEG 7KT 4615 10187 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

EDWARDS

281 
WWUS53 KBIS 222321
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
521 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NDC037-222345-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180522T2345Z/
Grant ND-
521 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTY...

At 521 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 13 miles south of
New Leipzig, or 14 miles south of Elgin, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southwestern Grant County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4611 10191 4618 10199 4639 10193 4624 10150
      4605 10174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 204DEG 8KT 4619 10184 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

EDWARDS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
356 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Convective potential highlights the short term forecast.

Two areas of potential convective initiation are possible late
this afternoon across the southwest and south central. First
across the Beach and Medora areas along a weak convergence line,
and a second along a density gradient along the northern periphery
of the cumulus field from near Bowman to Mandan/Bismarck, and
Napoleon. This is evident in the GOES-East Day Cloud Phase
Distinction RGB and Visible imagery through 2042 UTC showing
towering cumulus with ice at cloud top. However, upper level
forcing is rather weak, and sustained initiation would seem to be
another hour or two off. SPC has maintained the marginal risk
across the southwest and south central where MLCAPE around
900-1500 j/kg and deep layer shear of 25-30 kts supports an
isolated severe threat through sunset. Additional, less intense
convection is expected to develop across the northwest late this
afternoon into the early evening where upper level forcing is
greater, but, instability weaker.

Thunderstorms may be sustained across the southwest through the
overnight with a low level jet propagating into the northwest by
early Wednesday morning.

On Wednesday, widespread surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to
mid 60s are forecast to be in place across much of western and
central North Dakota ahead of a surface warm front that will
propagate into southwest North Dakota late Wednesday afternoon.
With the arrival of multiple impulses late Wednesday afternoon
and through evening ahead of the upper low across Montana,
convective initiation within the moisture axis ahead of the warm
front appears to increase after 21 UTC. ML CAPE around 1500-2500
j/kg and deep veering wind profiles with 0-6km shear around 30kts
oriented perpendicular to the moisture axis supports the potential
for a discrete supercellular mode late Wednesday afternoon and
into the early evening. All hazards are possible with the discrete
convection including large hail to golfball size, damaging winds
to 70 mph, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Convection is
likely to congeal as it propagates north through the late evening
into the overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Convective potential Thursday, and warm temperatures Thursday and
Friday highlight the extended forecast.

An upper level low is forecast to propagate into central North
Dakota by Thursday afternoon. The greatest instability axis may
remain across the James River Valley Thursday afternoon to support
possible strong to severe convection with dewpoints well into the
60s.

The 12 UTC NAEFS depicts 850 mb mean temperature anomalies in the
90th percentiles and above Thursday and Friday across western and
central North Dakota. With westerly winds, favored the warmer
edge of the 12 UTC global suite. This would put highs in the mid
to upper 80s Thursday, and the upper 80s to the lower 90s on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms developing
across the west and south central this afternoon, and continuing
through the evening. Thunderstorms may continue across the
southwest through the night. More widespread thunderstorms are
expected Wednesday, especially during the late afternoon and
evening, across most of western and central North Dakota. A few
storms could be severe Wednesday. VFR conditions outside of rain
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...PA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
400 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

NDZ004-005-012-013-023-025-037-048-232100-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Wells-Foster-Stutsman-La Moure-
400 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

More widespread thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, especially
during the late afternoon through the evening, across most of
western and central North Dakota. Some storms could be severe.
Large hail to golfball size, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a
tornado or two are the primary threats. Locally heavy rain is also
possible. The greatest risk for severe weather is along and south
of North Dakota Highway 200.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across northern North Dakota
and the James River Valley on Thursday. A few storms could be
strong to severe across the James River Valley.

The chance of thunderstorms returns Sunday and Monday across
western and central North Dakota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotter activation may be needed on Wednesday.

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>022-031>036-040>047-050-051-232100-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-
Burleigh-Kidder-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Logan-McIntosh-Dickey-
400 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 /300 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across western North Dakota
late this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms may continue
across the southwest into the overnight. Scattered thunderstorms
will enter central North Dakota by early this evening. A few
storms could be strong across the southwest. The main hazards
will be small hail, gusty winds, and dangerous lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

More widespread thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, especially
during the late afternoon through the evening, across most of
western and central North Dakota. Some storms could be severe.
Large hail to golfball size, damaging winds to 70 mph, and a
tornado or two are the primary threats. Locally heavy rain is also
possible. The greatest risk for severe weather is along and south
of North Dakota Highway 200.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across northern North Dakota
and the James River Valley on Thursday. A few storms could be
strong to severe across the James River Valley.

The chance of thunderstorms returns Sunday and Monday across
western and central North Dakota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
evening, however, there is a greater chance on Wednesday.

PA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
400 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NDZ044-222245-
Adams ND-
400 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM MDT...

At 400 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Hettinger, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bucyrus.

LAT...LON 4603 10279 4613 10287 4628 10261 4628 10252
      4626 10250 4621 10250 4621 10245 4608 10235
      4600 10272
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 239DEG 10KT 4609 10272

EDWARDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
516 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NDZ045-222245-
Sioux ND-
516 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SIOUX COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 516 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Prairie Knights Resort, or 11 miles northwest of
Fort Yates, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Prairie Knights Resort.

LAT...LON 4617 10091 4638 10083 4629 10057 4628 10058
      4625 10056 4623 10056 4621 10058 4612 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 220DEG 12KT 4620 10082

EDWARDS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
439 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NDZ042-045-222315-
Grant ND-Sioux ND-
439 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SIOUX AND
SOUTHWESTERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

At 439 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Keldron, or 17 miles northeast of Lemmon. this storm
was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Sioux
and southwestern Grant Counties.

LAT...LON 4605 10200 4607 10200 4626 10191 4612 10158
      4597 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 210DEG 4KT 4608 10185

EDWARDS