Severe Thunderstorm Warning 267, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
623 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

Convection in the north central has moved out of the forecast
area. Additional convection is now developing over southwest into
south central ND. Good instability but and marginal shear in this
area could support a few strong to severe storms early this
evening with the biggest threat being hail to an inch or so.
Updated pops this evening to the convection. Otherwise no
significant changes to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

Chances for showers and thunderstorms north and then into east
central North Dakota tonight highlight the short term period.
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms remain a possibility
across the north through this evening.

Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid level/700mb shortwave
now moving into Roosevelt County, MT, which is forecast to shift
across northern North Dakota this evening. Latest SPC mesoanalysis
still advertises 1000 J/Kg of MU CAPE/most unstable CAPE along
with Effective Bulk Shear of 35kt, which is sufficient for strong
to isolated severe thunderstorms. Latest radar indicates
thunderstorms from Upham to Rugby. Will maintain strong to
isolated severe thunderstorm wording within the HWO and weather
story. The threat for thunderstorms will sag south tonight, from
the Turtle Mountains this evening into the northern James River
Valley. This is right along a developing warm frontal boundary
with a persistent low level southerly wind flow and associated
moisture advection. Thus expect elevated convection as the
surface decouples this evening per RAP BUFKIT KJMS sounding.

A lack of shortwaves through most of Friday will allow for a dry
and warm day south, while the warm front remains nearly stationary
until late afternoon/early evening before moving towards the northern
border. Highs Friday will be in the 80s; as compared to the north
where the warm front will not have quite made it through, and
highs there will be in the lower 70s. Additional shortwaves begin
migrating into western North Dakota after 00z Saturday, which
leads into the Long Term Discussion beginning Friday night below.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

Expect elevated showers and thunderstroms Friday night north,
located along and north of the warm front as it shifts into
southern Canada. For Saturday, a cold front will move into western
North Dakota between 00z and 03z Sunday, then through central ND
by around daybreak Sunday, before stalling over the James River
Valley. A secondary cold front pushes the initial/stalled front
east Sunday night. This scenario sets up showers and thunderstorms
across western North Dakota Saturday afternoon and evening, then
central ND Saturday night. It would appear the threat for showers
and thunderstorms continues Sunday and Sunday night in the James
River Valley due to the cold front slowing and stalling Sunday
morning. Overall a weak CAPE/Shear environment dominates most of
the convection Saturday and Saturday night, then per GFS, increases
over the James River Valley late Sunday afternoon/evening.
Although strong to possible severe thunderstorms exists with the
entire cold frontal movement from west to east late Saturday
afternoon through Sunday evening; the favored area for severe
weather as of now would be the James River Valley during Sunday
afternoon/evening.

The secondary cold front sweeps through Sunday night with cooler
and drier air arriving Monday. Southwest flow aloft continues
through most of next week, which keeps mostly an active pattern
in place.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

VFR conditions expected this forecast period. Convection is firing
east of KDIK and could move into KBIS aerodrome this evening.
Added a period of VCTS at KBIS. Convection in the north central to
northeast could also drop south to near KJMS. Elsewhere convection
is not expected. Added a mention of LLWS at KBIS 09-14 UTC.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
336 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     HAIL             RUGBY                   48.37N 100.0W
09/06/2018  E0.88 INCH       PIERCE             ND   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
345 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             6 SW NANSON             48.51N 99.85W
09/06/2018  E0.75 INCH       PIERCE             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             WOLFORD                 48.50N 99.70W
09/06/2018  E1.00 INCH       PIERCE             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY PEA-SIZED BUT A FEW QUARTER SIZE HAIL
            STONES. HEAVY RAIN TOTAL WAS 0.66 INCHES IN
            JUST A FEW MINUTES.

&&

RK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
401 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2018

NDZ005-013-062145-
Rolette ND-Pierce ND-
401 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PIERCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROLETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles east of
Wolford, or 23 miles east of Rugby, moving east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wolford and Nanson.

LAT...LON 4858 9949 4837 9950 4837 9954 4847 10004
      4863 9994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 280DEG 32KT 4845 9951

SIMOSKO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
454 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2018

NDZ005-013-062230-
Rolette ND-Pierce ND-
454 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PIERCE
AND SOUTHEASTERN ROLETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 454 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered 6 miles northeast
of Wolford, or 20 miles south of Rolla, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Wolford, Mylo, Agate and Nanson.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4844 9949 4852 9996 4864 9989 4864 9949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 278DEG 27KT 4856 9961

SIMOSKO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
507 PM MDT THU SEP 6 2018

NDZ033-062345-
Stark ND-
507 PM MDT THU SEP 6 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN STARK COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 506 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Richardton, or
21 miles east of Dickinson, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Richardton and Taylor.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4691 10246 4701 10231 4701 10215 4698 10214
      4698 10211 4696 10209 4679 10210 4678 10210
      4678 10239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 241DEG 16KT 4690 10232

HAMILTON