Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
254 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Latest satellite and surface observations at 230 pm CDT show a
narrow band of towering cu forming in the vicinity of the cold
front, from Kenmare in Ward county southwest to just near
Dickinson, to western Slope and Bowman counties. As the cold front
moves east through the remaining afternoon hours, the weak cap
will be broken and expect thunderstorm initiation along the
frontal zone as it moves east.

The current forecast anticipates a narrow band of cape and shear
across central North Dakota in the vicinity of the frontal zone
late this afternoon and evening. The forecast zero to 6 km shear
vectors cross the frontal zone nearly perpendicular so discrete
cells will be favored initially, but the shear begins to align
with the frontal zone in the evening so a more linear form of
convection will be then favored. GOES 16 satellite meso sector is
in place over the northern plains through 09z in anticipation of
severe convection.

The convection will is expected to move east of teh region after
midnight.

On Sunday, the upper low will advance east into Ontario with
h500 ridging moving into the northern plains. Expect much cooler
temperatures Sunday as the cold front ushers in temperatures in
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Overall the long term trend will be dominated by a broad h500 ridge
pattern, with a weak transient upper ripple moving through
Tuesday night and Wednesday. This means slowly moderating
temperatures from the 70s on Monday back into the 80s to around
90 by Thursday into the weekend. There will be a chance of
thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday, and again Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

Hazards to aviation will focus on scattered thunderstorms
expected to form along a cold front moving into central and
southwest North Dakota by mid afternoon. Threat of thunderstorms
will end after 03-05Z. VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
341 AM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

NDZ003>005-010>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-150845-
Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-
Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
341 AM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 /241 AM MDT Sat Jul 14 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hot today with scattered thunderstorms developing during the
afternoon across southwest and central North Dakota. Storms will
slowly move eastward along a cold front through the evening and
diminish overnight. A few storms may be severe, with hail up to
half dollar size and wind gusts to 60 mph being the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms later Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

NDZ001-002-009-150845-
Divide-Burke-Williams-
341 AM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms later Tuesday into Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

TJK/CS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
334 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

NDZ018-019-142100-
Mercer-Dunn-
334 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DUNN AND
NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT/300 PM MDT/...

At 334 PM CDT/234 PM MDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles
northeast of Halliday, or 22 miles east of Killdeer, moving east at
25 mph.

Half inch hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Halliday and Twin Buttes.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4754 10235 4757 10203 4756 10202 4754 10203
      4754 10195 4746 10184 4733 10200 4732 10236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 262DEG 23KT 4743 10228

ABELING