Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Bismarck, ND

444 
WWUS53 KBIS 110329
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1029 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

NDC013-023-061-075-101-105-110415-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-180711T0415Z/
Ward ND-Renville ND-Burke ND-Williams ND-Mountrail ND-Divide ND-
1029 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WARD...WESTERN RENVILLE...BURKE...NORTHEASTERN
WILLIAMS...MOUNTRAIL AND EASTERN DIVIDE COUNTIES...

At 1028 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 10 miles northwest of Portal to 8 miles south of
Columbus to 8 miles southeast of Ray, moving east at 60 mph.

These are very dangerous storms.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
Stanley, Crosby, Bowbells, Tioga, Kenmare, Ray, Berthold, Powers
Lake, Carpio, Lignite, Columbus, Portal, Noonan, Wildrose, Epping,
Ross, Battleview, Palermo, Flaxton and Donnybrook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 10172 4813 10172 4813 10309 4815 10310
      4812 10333 4813 10357 4856 10330 4900 10349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 266DEG 52KT 4908 10275 4879 10271 4823 10307 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

HARGROVE

039 
WWUS53 KBIS 110341
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

NDC013-023-061-075-101-105-110415-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-180711T0415Z/
Ward ND-Renville ND-Burke ND-Williams ND-Mountrail ND-Divide ND-
1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WARD...WESTERN RENVILLE...BURKE...NORTHEASTERN
WILLIAMS...MOUNTRAIL AND EASTERN DIVIDE COUNTIES...

At 1041 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles northeast of Portal to 6 miles south of
Flaxton to 11 miles west of Ross, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Stanley, Bowbells, Tioga, Kenmare, Ray, Berthold, Powers Lake,
Carpio, Lignite, Columbus, Portal, Noonan, Ross, Battleview, Palermo,
Flaxton, Donnybrook, Lostwood, Belden and Blaisdell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 10172 4813 10172 4813 10309 4815 10310
      4812 10333 4812 10341 4866 10309 4900 10324
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 265DEG 56KT 4910 10245 4881 10242 4825 10278 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

HARGROVE

950 
WWUS53 KBIS 110344
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1044 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

NDC013-023-061-075-101-105-110415-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-180711T0415Z/
Ward ND-Renville ND-Burke ND-Williams ND-Mountrail ND-Divide ND-
1044 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WARD...WESTERN RENVILLE...BURKE...NORTHEASTERN
WILLIAMS...NORTHERN MOUNTRAIL AND EASTERN DIVIDE COUNTIES...

At 1044 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles northeast of Portal to 5 miles south of
Flaxton to 10 miles southwest of Ross, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Bowbells, Kenmare, Powers Lake, Carpio, Lignite, Columbus, Portal,
Noonan, Battleview, Flaxton, Donnybrook, Lostwood, Coulee, Tolley,
Norma, Larson, Niobe, Northgate, Coteau and Mcgregor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4840 10172 4842 10300 4871 10293 4900 10312
      4900 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 265DEG 56KT 4910 10242 4881 10239 4825 10275 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

HARGROVE

982 
WWUS53 KBIS 110406
SVSBIS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1106 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

NDC023-105-110415-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-180711T0415Z/
Williams ND-Divide ND-
1106 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMS AND
EASTERN DIVIDE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
north central and northwestern North Dakota.

LAT...LON 4842 10287 4873 10279 4900 10293 4900 10172
      4840 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 265DEG 56KT 4913 10196 4884 10193 4828 10229 

$$

NDC013-061-075-101-110415-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-180711T0415Z/
Ward ND-Renville ND-Burke ND-Mountrail ND-
1106 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN WARD...WESTERN RENVILLE...BURKE AND NORTHERN
MOUNTRAIL COUNTIES...

At 1105 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 18 miles northwest of Sherwood to 13 miles northeast
of Kenmare to 5 miles southeast of Stanley, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters measured a 70 mph wind gust just 
         north of Lostwood.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Bowbells, Kenmare, Powers Lake, Carpio, Lignite, Columbus, Portal,
Battleview, Flaxton, Donnybrook, Lostwood, Coulee, Tolley, Norma,
Larson, Niobe, Northgate and Coteau.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 4842 10287 4873 10279 4900 10293 4900 10172
      4840 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 265DEG 56KT 4913 10196 4884 10193 4828 10229 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

HARGROVE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
856 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Severe thunderstorm watch issued by Storm Prediction Center includes
11 counties in northwest and north central North Dakota...including
Crosby, Williston, Watford City...east to Bottineau/Minot/Rugby.

Increased chances of thunderstorms tonight, keeping the best chances
across the northwest and north central. The northern portion of the
line of Montana storms have maintained themselves both in strength
and in a more continuous line...and continuing to push east towards
the northwestern border of North Dakota. The storms in the southern
portion of the Montana line have become more isolated and not as
strong.

The HRRR high res model keeps the line of storms more or less intact
as it moves east across North Dakota, while the Experimental HRRR
keeps only the northern portion intact as it progresses eastward
across northern North Dakota. Thus have highest chances of
thunderstorms across the north (where the severe thunderstorm watch
is in effect) and lower chances across southwest and south central
ND.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Some rather weak convection with mostly showers but some
thundershowers developed this afternoon across northwest ND, and
have moved east into north central ND. Expect this isolated
convection to continue east. Attention turns to our north in
Saskatchewan, where this convection appears linked to the north
central ND convection, likely associated with upper level impulses
riding the h500 ridge - the Canadian convection a bit stronger as
the mid-level thermal capping is stronger across North Dakota. This
convection should also continue eastward/northeastward.

Main attention is focused over southwestern Saskatchewan and central
Montana, where a line of strong to severe storms had developed
during the mid-afternoon hours. These storms are associated with a
set of upper level impulses out ahead of an upper level low pressure
system moving east across Alberta into Saskatchewan tonight. Models
show the stronger impulses lifting northeast into Saskatchewan and
Manitoba tonight, clipping northwest into north central North
Dakota. Latest iterations of short term high res models would
suggest this line of storms arriving at the western border of ND
around 9 pm CDT/8 pm MDT. Some of these models show some convection
perhaps holding together farther south (going into southwestern ND
as well) while others maintain a more northern boundary to the
convection in northwestern ND.

Later updates should address these trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Severe thunderstorm potential northwest North Dakota headlines the
short term highlight.

Latest water vapor imagery indicates shows our next 500mb/700mb
shortwave trough now located over the chimney stack of Idaho.
Associated surface cold front stretching from western Montana
south into eastern Idaho. Both features will propagate east this
afternoon and evening, reaching western North Dakota by around
sunset, and continuing to move across central ND overnight/through
early Wednesday morning. Height falls indicated per model data
and SPC mesoanalysis are underway across the west, and will fall
more noticeably this evening. Latest Convective Allowing Models
fairly consistent with a line of severe thunderstorms stretching
from western Saskatchewan into Divide and portions of northern
Divide counties by around 03z-04z/10PM-11PM CDT Tuesday. They will
continue to sweep east into Burke and along the northern border
through 08z, weakening as they move farther east. There could be
isolated showers/thunderstorms along the front farther to the
south, but overall, much weaker instability and shear should
inhibit any threat of widespread severe weather. The cold front
will be through the James River Valley by 18z-00z Wednesday.
Lingering showers and some thunderstorms through south central
North Dakota in the morning, then drier air/less humid air will
sweep from west to east in the afternoon. Dewpoints will be in the
50s west and central, with lower 70s lingering across the
southern James River Valley. A marginal risk for severe weather
continues across the southern James River Valley Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Weak cyclonic flow transitions to broad anticyclonic Thursday
through Saturday afternoon with mainly a dry forecast. The one
exception would be Wednesday night across far southern North
Dakota where some shower activity from South Dakota may shift into
our far southern counties. Other than that, the next potential
severe weather threat looks to come Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night as a strong cold front sweeps from northwest to
southeast associated with a southern Canadian upper low. Behind it
Sunday and through Tuesday, expect much cooler and drier air with
highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Threat for thunderstorms highest at KISN/KMOT from 03z through 08z
Wednesday. Still some uncertainty if the TAF sites will have a
direct impact at this time, but have introduced a tempo group at
KISN since storms forecast to reach there around 03z. For now, will
maintain a VCTS at KMOT. If something does develop, wind gusts to
65kt and hail to one inch diameter would be the main threats. Rest
of the terminals should have a minimal threat at best and will keep
any mention of precipitation out of the forecast for now. Vfr
cigs/vsbys for now.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
917 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-120230-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-
917 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 /817 PM MDT Tue Jul 10 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota and northwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms moving east across northwest and north central North
Dakota late this evening and tonight...some possibly severe with
damaging winds and large hail as the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for thunderstorms return Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

NDZ018>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-120230-
Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-Slope-Hettinger-
Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
917 PM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018 /817 PM MDT Tue Jul 10 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight. Severe weather is not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Chances for thunderstorms return Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
926 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TORNADO          1 SSW WATFORD CITY      47.78N 103.29W
07/10/2018                   MCKENZIE           ND   NWS STORM SURVEY

            *** 1 FATAL, 28 INJ ***
            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR AND EYE
            WITNESS REPORTS. EXTENSIVE AND SEVERE DAMAGE
            AT AN RV / TRAILER PARK ON THE SOUTHWEST
            SIDE OF WATFORD CITY. NWS DAMAGE SURVEY
            CONFIRMS EF2 TORNADO AND BASED ON THAT
            ESTIMATES WIND SPEEDS AROUND 127 MPH. MANY
            SINGLE WIDE MANUFACTURED HOMES AND RVS
            DESTROYED. POWER POLES SNAPPED. STORAGE
            BUILDINGS AND VEHICLES DESTROYED.
            WEATHER.GOV/BIS HAS MORE DETAILS. INJURIES
            AND FATALITY BASED ON NEWS REPORTS.

&&

JP MARTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
951 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALKABO                  48.87N 103.89W
07/10/2018  M50 MPH          DIVIDE             ND   PUBLIC

            50 MPH WINDS LASTED FOR 5-7 MINUTES. 1 INCH
            OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

JV