Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1226 AM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Severe storms across northwest North Dakota continue. Latest
guidance indicates these storms will maintain intensity and
continue shifting off to the southeast for the next couple of
hours at least.

UPDATE Issued at 849 PM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1 am CDT for
northwest and parts of north central ND.

Discrete supercells moving southeast out of Saskatchewan, along with
expected development ahead of the cells with time this evening are
the main concerns tonight - as well as a severe thunderstorm watch
in effect until 1 am CDT for all of northwest and parts of north
central North Dakota. There is an upper level impulse moving along
the apex of the upper level ridge, mainly along the US/Canada
border. A strong southeasterly low level jet at h925/h850 feeding
plenty of low level moisture over the western Dakotas into
Saskatchewan and more westerly flow at h700 and above...plenty of
low level and 0-6km bulk shear.

The discrete supercells have held together for quite some time as
they move southeast out of Saskatchewan. History of tornado warnings
in Saskatchewan as well as in Sheridan County, Montana. Large hail
and straight line wind damage as well. Short term high res models
continue to show discrete cells entering the watch area through the
evening hours. Then scattered showers and thunderstorms developing
in central ND with the strengthening low level jet and more upper
level impulses over Wyoming/southeast Montana moving into western
and central ND...east of the main h700 thermal ridge (where the
thermal cap is weaker).

UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018

Storm Prediction Center has issued a Mesoscale Discussion
regarding severe potential for northwestern North Dakota.
Supercells in Saskatchewan likely headed southeast and we may see
more development in addition. Tornado threat possible as
well...with tornado warnings in Saskatchewan. Watch possible at
this point.

UPDATE Issued at 514 PM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018

Raised chances of thunderstorms this evening beginning around 10 pm
CDT in northwestern ND. Supercells in Saskatchewan seem well-handled
by the high res HRRR, bringing the scattered to isolated
thunderstorms into the northwest, expanding eastward overnight.
Also, the latest iterations of the high res models agree on
convection developing across much of central North Dakota after
midnight. Thus expanded the area of chance/slight chance of
thunderstorms to include all of central North Dakota late tonight
into Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be thunderstorm
chances tonight and hot and humid conditions returning for
Tuesday.

Currently, broad upper level ridge across the central United
States with sfc high pressure to our east and developing low
pressure to our west. Embedded S/WV moving through the ridge has
resulted in an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving
east across the I94 corridor the past several hours. This activity
will continue east and eventually south before moving out of my
area within the next few hours.

For tonight, another embedded impulse or two will move across the
Northern Plains. Models somewhat inconsistent for this evening,
but seem in agreement developing convection over central ND
overnight as the low level jet ramps up a combines with forcing
aloft with the mid level waves. Instability is not too impressive,
but 0-6km bulk shear is on the order of 40-50 kts so there is a
marginal threat for severe weather overnight to around or even a
bit after sunrise Tues morning. With the marginal threat will
leave T+ out of the grids, but will put in the state and HWO.

Still on track for mid/upper 90s across western and south central
ND for Tuesday afternoon. Heat index values are sub-advisory so
no plans on heat headlines at this time. Dry and capped tomorrow
daytime so will keep the late morning-afternoon dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018

The main concern for the extended period remains the threat for
severe storms across northern ND Tuesday evening and night.

Afternoon/evening convection will fire off across Montana
Tuesday, with models suggesting a line of strong to severe storms
then moving east/northeast with a surface cold front Tuesday
evening. Some models take all the storms into Canada, while some
still impact northwest and north central ND. Will maintain T+ and
severe wording in the other products for this. If these storms
materialize and the environmental setup becomes more favorable,
there could be a significant damaging wind threat.

Expect quiet weather behind the departing cold front/upper low for
mid to late week as weak ridging and a slightly drier air mass build
in. A return to active weather may be in store for the upcoming
weekend as a deepening trough moves down from Canada, but there are
model differences on the timing and placement of this feature. There
are also hints of a significant cool-down for the weekend, with
highs returning to the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 10 2018

Mainly VFR conditions expected, though in and near thunderstorms
brief MVFR cigs and vsbys with strong gusty winds and heavy rain
are likely.Thunderstorms will end are expected to develop further
across central North Dakota, mainly affecting KMOT, KBIS, KJMS.
Again, mainly VFR cigs except some MVFR cigs and vsbys in and near
thunderstorms with brief heavy rain and gusty winds.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018

NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046-102015-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-
Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-
Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018 /211 PM MDT Mon Jul 9 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms this evening
and overnight across all of western and much of central North
Dakota. Large hail up to quarter size, damaging wind gusts to 60
mph, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across all of western and central North Dakota. Some of
these storms may be strong to severe. The most favorable area for
severe weather is across northwest and north central North
Dakota, with damaging winds the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051-102015-
Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Kidder-
Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across all of western and central North Dakota. Some of
these storms may be strong to severe. The most favorable area for
severe weather is across northwest and north central North
Dakota, with damaging winds the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HAIL             ALEXANDER               47.85N 103.64W
07/10/2018  E1.00 INCH       MCKENZIE           ND   PUBLIC

            RELAYED THROUGH BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

JV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     TSTM WND GST     ARNEGARD                47.81N 103.44W
07/10/2018  E60 MPH          MCKENZIE           ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JV