Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Warnings in 2018
Winter Storm Warning 9, NWS Binghamton, NY
NWS Binghamton, NY issued this winter storm warning at Nov 27, 2018, 10:59 AM EST for 8 counties in New York. It was in force for 16 hr. 23 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 27, 2018, 10:59 AM EST (15:59 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 28, 2018, 3:19 AM EST
- In force
- 16 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Binghamton, NY
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Madison County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 67 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 11:18 AM EST | SNOW 4.5 | Hartwick, NY | 1550FT |
| Nov 27, 1:24 PM EST | SNOW 3.8 | Holland Patent, NY | |
| Nov 27, 3:52 PM EST | SNOW 6.3 | Milford, NY | HIGHER ELEVATION/HILLS |
| Nov 27, 5:00 PM EST | SNOW 0.5 | 2 Ene Hinsdale, NY | SYRACUSE OBSERVER |
| Nov 27, 5:10 PM EST | SNOW 10.2 | Sauquoit, NY | 1411 FEET |
| Nov 27, 5:30 PM EST | SNOW 6.4 | Franklin, NY | |
| Nov 27, 5:50 PM EST | SNOW 2 | Tully, NY | |
| Nov 27, 6:00 PM EST | SNOW 4 | Cazenovia, NY | |
| Nov 27, 6:00 PM EST | SNOW 4 | Oneonta, NY | ~1500 FEET ELEVATION |
| Nov 27, 6:02 PM EST | SNOW 3.5 | Mcdonough, NY | |
| Nov 27, 6:22 PM EST | SNOW 5 | Unadilla Center, NY | ABOVE 1500 FT ELEVATION |
| Nov 27, 6:44 PM EST | SNOW 7 | Walton, NY | 2200 FT. ELEVATION |
| Nov 27, 7:00 PM EST | SNOW 2.9 | Marcy, NY | |
| Nov 27, 7:41 PM EST | SNOW 4.3 | Skaneateles, NY | ~900 FT. ELEVATION |
| Nov 27, 7:58 PM EST | SNOW 0.5 | Cicero, NY | |
| Nov 27, 8:19 PM EST | SNOW 7 | Barneveld, NY | 801 FT. ELEVATION |
| Nov 27, 9:55 PM EST | SNOW 1.5 | Fishs Eddy, NY | 1000 FT. ELEVATION |
| Nov 27, 10:00 PM EST | SNOW 2 | Delhi, NY | |
| Nov 27, 10:10 PM EST | SNOW 1 | 2 Ene Hinsdale, NY | SYRACUSE OBSERVER |
| Nov 27, 10:54 PM EST | SNOW 8 | Hamden, NY | AT 2100 FT ELEVATION OUTSIDE OF TOWN. VIA WBNG-TV. |
| Nov 27, 11:00 PM EST | SNOW 1.7 | New Hartford, NY | TOTAL 5 PM TO 11 PM |
| Nov 28, 2:30 AM EST | SNOW 5 | Whitesboro, NY | 24 HOUR TOTAL. |
| Nov 28, 3:07 AM EST | SNOW 6 | Locke, NY | REPORTED TO NWS BGM VIA FACEBOOK. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 153 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 598 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -33 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 197 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
930 WWUS41 KBGM 271559 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 NYZ017-018-036-037-044-281600- /O.UPG.KBGM.WW.Y.0032.181127T2000Z-181128T2300Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0009.181127T1559Z-181129T0000Z/ Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Including the cities of Auburn, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, and Cortland 1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in the valleys and 6 to 12 inches in the higher elevations. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Madison, Southern Oneida and Cortland Counties. * WHEN...Snow will continue through the afternoon with heavier snow expected tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities will be less than 1 inch per hour during the afternoon with between 1 and 2 inches per hour tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible mainly over the higher terrain areas. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Interstate 81 between Syracuse and Marathon could become very dangerous especially over the higher terrain. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible especially in the higher terrain areas. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ045-046-057-281600- /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0009.181127T1559Z-181129T0000Z/ Chenango-Otsego-Delaware- Including the cities of Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton 1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in the valleys and 5 to 10 inches over the higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Chenango, Otsego and Delaware Counties. * WHEN...Snow will continue through the afternoon with heavier snow expected tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities will be less than 1 inch per hour during the afternoon with between 1 and 2 inches per hour tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult especially over the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Interstate 88 could become very dangerous in the higher terrain areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible, mainly over the higher terrain areas. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ009-281600- /O.EXT.KBGM.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ Northern Oneida- Including the city of Boonville 1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches expected with locally up to 10 inches in the far northeast part of the County. * WHERE...Northern Oneida County. * WHEN... Periods of light snow will continue through the afternoon with a steadier snow expected tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities will be less than 1/2 inch per hour during the afternoon and up to 1 inch per hour tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially over the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ016-025-281600- /O.EXT.KBGM.WW.Y.0032.181127T1559Z-181129T0000Z/ Seneca-Tompkins- Including the cities of Seneca Falls and Ithaca 1059 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Seneca, Tompkins and Cortland Counties. * WHEN...Periods of light snow will continue through the afternoon with a steadier snow expected tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities will be less than 1/2 inch per hour during the afternoon and up to 1 inch per hour tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially over the higher terrain and during the night time hours. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact commutes this evening and Wednesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NICOSIA
3 follow-up statements
568 WWUS41 KBGM 272036 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 336 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 NYZ017-018-036-037-044>046-057-282045- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Chenango-Otsego-Delaware- Including the cities of Auburn, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton 336 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in the valleys and 5 to 10 inches over the higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Onondaga, Southern Cayuga, Chenango, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland, Otsego and Delaware Counties. * WHEN...Snow will continue into the evening hours with heavier snow expected overnight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities will be less than 1 inch per hour this evening with between 1 and 2 inches per hour overnight and Wednesday morning. Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be difficult especially over the higher terrain. Interstates 81 and 88 could become dangerous in the higher terrain areas especially between Syracuse and Cortland on I-81 and northeast of Oneonta on I-88. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. For this storm, the severe winter conditions will be over the higher terrain areas. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ009-282045- /O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ Northern Oneida- Including the city of Boonville 336 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches expected with locally up to 10 inches in the far northeast part of the County. * WHERE...Northern Oneida County. * WHEN... Periods of snow will continue tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities will be between 1/2 inch and one inch per hour tonight and Wednesday morning. Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially over the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ016-025-282045- /O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ Seneca-Tompkins- Including the cities of Seneca Falls and Ithaca 336 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph. * WHERE...Seneca, and Tompkins Counties. * WHEN...Periods of light snow will continue through the evening with a steadier snow expected overnight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities will be less than 1/2 inch per hour during the evening and up to 1 inch per hour overnight and Wednesday morning. Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially over the higher terrain and during the night time hours. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact commutes especially Wednesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NICOSIA
806 WWUS41 KBGM 272337 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 637 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 NYZ017-018-036-037-044>046-057-282345- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Chenango-Otsego-Delaware- Including the cities of Auburn, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton 637 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in the valleys and 5 to 12 inches over the higher terrain. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow especially over the higher terrain. * WHERE...Onondaga, Southern Cayuga, Chenango, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland, Otsego and Delaware Counties. * WHEN...Snow will continue for the overnight hours with heavier snow expected. Snow will increase to between 1 and 2 inches per hour overnight and last into Wednesday morning. Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be difficult especially over the higher terrain. Interstates 81 and 88 could become dangerous in the higher terrain areas especially between Syracuse and Cortland on I-81 and northeast of Oneonta on I-88. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. For this storm, the severe winter conditions will be over the higher terrain areas. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ009-282345- /O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ Northern Oneida- Including the city of Boonville 637 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches expected with locally up to 10 inches in the far northeast part of the County. * WHERE...Northern Oneida County. * WHEN... Periods of snow will continue overnight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities will be between 1/2 inch and one inch per hour. Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially over the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ016-025-282345- /O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ Seneca-Tompkins- Including the cities of Seneca Falls and Ithaca 637 PM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow late tonight and Wednesday. * WHERE...Seneca, and Tompkins Counties. * WHEN...Snow will continue overnight and Wednesday morning. Snow intensities will be between 1/2 and 1 inch per hour at times. Snow will taper in intensity Wednesday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially over the higher terrain. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility later tonight. The hazardous conditions could impact the commute Wednesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NICOSIA
935 WWUS41 KBGM 280819 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 319 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2018 NYZ017-018-036-037-044>046-057-290000- /O.CAN.KBGM.WS.W.0009.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KBGM.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Chenango-Otsego-Delaware- Including the cities of Auburn, Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton 319 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, especially at higher elevations. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Madison, Southern Oneida, Cortland, Chenango, Otsego and Delaware Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially over the higher terrain. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility at times. The hazardous conditions could impact the commute this morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ009-290000- /O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ Northern Oneida- Including the city of Boonville 319 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Additional accumulations of 3 to 4 inches possible. * WHERE...Northern Oneida County. * WHEN... Periods of snow will continue today with areas of blowing snow. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially over the higher terrain. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ016-025-290000- /O.CON.KBGM.WW.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-181129T0000Z/ Seneca-Tompkins- Including the cities of Seneca Falls and Ithaca 319 AM EST Wed Nov 28 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Ocassional snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches possible, especially over the higher elevations. Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will lead to considerable blowing snow. * WHERE...Seneca, and Tompkins Counties. * WHEN...Snow will continue today, tapering off late. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions especially over the higher terrain. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Nov 27, 6:53 AM EST, 4 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 27, 6:53 AM EST, 4 hours 6 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
653 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A large system will stall over the northeast through Wednesday.
Rain will mix with and change to snow showers this morning. A
combination of snow and lake effect snow will persist today
through Wednesday, with brisk winds. Many inches of snow will
fall primarily east and southeast of Lake Ontario, but a few
inches are possible into the Southern Tier of New York as well,
and lighter amounts in Northeast Pennsylvania.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
415 AM Update...
A large low pressure system will get hung up for a time over
the Northeast, with both cold air and moisture wrapping around
it to produce combined synoptic snow and lake enhanced snow for
our region, especially in Central New York. Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to many of our New York Counties
starting 3 PM, to join the one already in effect for Northern
Oneida County.
Transfer of energy is occurring from a low now near Toronto, to
a deepening second low making its way into Southern New England.
The second low is tracking further east than had been expected,
and the energy transfer is also progressing quickly, which has
allowed cold air advection to ensue a bit faster. Thus, the cold
rain is changing to wet snow fairly quickly this morning. Many
valley locations still have rain but hilltops have picked up a
skiff of wet snow and it continues. The New York Mesonet
suggests that Woodgate in far northeastern Oneida County might
have received about a couple inches, whereas at NWS Binghamton
1600 ft elevation as of 4 AM we have about a half inch so far.
Meanwhile aloft, upper low is pulling directly over us right
snow as another one is dropping into the Northwest Great Lakes.
That second one gradually catching up with the first, will cause
a merged upper low stalling out over the interior Northeast
late today through Wednesday. We will be in cyclonic flow, with
plenty of time for deeper Atlantic moisture to continue wrapping
around the system.
This scenario, with a stuck upper low and Atlantic moisture
infusion, is a marker of other significant lake effect events in
the past, and indeed if temperatures were just a bit colder
then snow accumulation expectations would ramp up considerably.
For this event, gradual cold air advection will occur, dropping
850mb from the current few degrees below zero Celsius, to more
like 6-8 degrees below tonight into Wednesday. Wet snow will
continue today with little additional accumulation at first,
with temperatures hovering around or even a few degrees above
freezing. However, synoptic moisture on the back side of the
low, and lake enhancement, will get snow to accumulate more
later today through midday Wednesday. Snow will also start
taking on a drier texture, more prone to blowing around as winds
significantly pick up out of the west with gusts 25-30 mph this
afternoon through tonight, and then even to 35 mph on
Wednesday. Most of the Winter Weather Advisory thus focuses on
mid afternoon today through Wednesday. One point of potential
concern, is that the models and especially several runs now of
the Canadian regional model, suggest a deeper combined
synoptic/lake enhanced band shooting roughly along the NY
Thruway late today into this evening, edging a bit southward
overnight. We have 5-8 inches snow totals forecast there
combining today through Wednesday, but if band materializes a
bit stronger, it is not out of the question that locally more
could occur.
As the better synoptic push of moisture comes in tonight-early
Wednesday, we may find accumulating snows pressing further south
across the Twin Tiers as well; perhaps 1-3 inches. Steuben-Yates
counties may be prone to getting more, especially western/higher
terrain portions of those counties where several inches are not
out the question. It is possible that Steuben-Yates, and on the
flip side Chenango-Otsego, may potentially need to be added to
the Advisory but confidence in higher snow totals is not high
enough yet. Regardless, at least light accumulations can be
expected for those zones and even crossing a bit into Northern
Pennsylvania. As is the case further north, winds will also get
pretty gusty with blowing snow where it falls.
Highs today will be lower to mid 30s; even upper 30s in lower
elevations of Northeast PA. Lows tonight will be upper 20s-lower
30s, then highs little changed from today for Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A fairly deep mid-level trough will continue to be in place across
the central and eastern United States. Our winds look to be still
around 300 degrees. This will allow lake moisture to move off lake
Ontario into areas northeast of Ithaca and south of Syracuse
eastward into Cortland and Chenango counties Wednesday morning before
pulling back into the Finger Lakes by the afternoon. The mid-level
trough will start to depart by Thursday lowering the precipitation
chances. Generally used a blend of national guidance along with
mesoscale models to determine the locations favored for lake effect.
Additional accumulations Wednesday and Wednesday night look to range
from the Southern Tier and points northward. Surface temperatures
above freezing will likely limit accumulations in the daytime across
a good portion of the area.
Highs will generally be in the 30's with lows in the 20's. A few
wind gusts Wednesday afternoon with mixing could reach 20-25 mph.
the pressure gradient will relax some on Thursday but a gust or two
to 20 mph can not be ruled out.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
220 AM UPDATE...
Weak wave passes through on Friday bringing light
precipitation. Far more important system approaches on the
weekend as a low closes off over the upper mid west. Warm
advection rain breaks out late Saturday and continues into
Sunday. Mild weather continues into Monday with a broad upper
ridge and southwest flow.
Updated the long term to reflect the latest model timing and
thermal profiles. Previous discussion continues below.
Friday and Friday night:
A mid-level shortwave will gradually become sheared out and weekend
as it moves into our region from the Great Lakes. This shortwave
will also have to overcome a drier airmass at the surface as well. A
fair cluster of ensemble members still keep this feature strong
enough for some scattered rain and snow showers. Little in the way
of precipitation and snow accumulations are expected. Highs will be
in the 30's with overnight lows in the 20's to around 30.
Saturday through Sunday night:
A much stronger low will track from the Southern plains into the
Great Lakes bringing with a strong shot of moisture and warm air
advection. As with several recent systems, models continue to trend
a little bit faster with the timing. Overrunning moisture ahead of it
should bring a fairly expansive area of rain through the region
Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Potential is then present for the
rain to become more showery on Sunday as we briefly enter the warm
sector as the low tracks to our west. At this time, it appears any
low level cold should scour out to prevent freezing rain.
Temperatures will likely rise into the 40's Saturday then stay
rather steady Saturday night before toping out closer to 50 on
Sunday. The temperature trend is still diurnal at this time given
the potential for exact timing of this system to change slightly.
Heavy rainfall is possible with this system is possible as well.
With possible snow melt, some nuisance flooding along with some
rises on creeks and streams could occur. Winds will pick up again
from the south ahead of the low with gusts around 15 mph on Sunday.
Monday: Perhaps we see something called the sun here? The low
pressure system will be well east of the region dragging a cold
front through by early Monday. Some lake effect precipitation as you
get further north and west but locations in NE PA into the Southern
Catskills may dry out briefly.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z update...
Restrictive conditions continue as cool air wraps into large
system progressing through the region, which changed rain to
snow prior to 12Z. This system will stall out over the Northeast
to keep moisture and snow, enhanced by lake effect at times,
through pretty much the entire TAF period for the NY terminals.
Fuel alternate required to IFR conditions will dominate the TAF
period for the NY terminals, and even LIFR at times KBGM-KSYR-
KRME. KAVP meanwhile will see lighter scattered snow showers
early yet with an MVFR ceiling persisting, then a resurgence of
moisture late tonight will probably cause some more visibility
restrictions. Winds are now in process of flipping to westerly,
and will increase to 10-14 knots midday through tonight with
gusts 18-22 knots. Direction will veer slightly to west-
northwest with time.
Outlook...
Wednesday through Thursday...Lake enhanced snow showers for
KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM, but KELM-KAVP cannot be ruled out from
brief flurries/restrictions. Lake effect diminishes Thursday.
Thursday night through early Saturday...Primarily VFR.
Late Saturday through Saturday night...System moves into the
area with rain and restrictions becoming likely.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ009.
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EST
Wednesday for NYZ016>018-025-036-037-044.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM/MWG
AVIATION...MDPHazardous weather outlook, Nov 27, 3:58 AM EST, 7 hours 1 minute before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 358 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 NYZ024-055-056-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-280900- Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne- Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne- 358 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NYZ009-280900- Northern Oneida- 358 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NYZ016>018-025-036-037-044-280900- Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida- Cortland- 358 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. Also, before the Advisory takes effect, rain changing to wet snow may cause some slick spots on roads this morning mainly at higher elevations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Weather Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NYZ015-022-023-045-046-057-280900- Yates-Steuben-Schuyler-Chenango-Otsego-Delaware- 358 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Rain changing to wet snow this morning, and then additional snow late today through Wednesday, could add up to a few to several inches total snow accumulation especially at higher elevations. This could result in slick roads for some locations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Nov 27, 7:22 AM EST, 3 hours 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
722 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0720 AM SNOW LEONARDSVILLE 42.81N 75.25W
11/27/2018 M4.0 INCH MADISON NY TRAINED SPOTTER
HEAVY, WET SNOW
&&
HLCLocal storm report, Nov 27, 7:24 AM EST, 3 hours 35 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
724 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM SNOW MILFORD 42.59N 74.95W
11/27/2018 M4.0 INCH OTSEGO NY SOCIAL MEDIA
1700FT
&&
HLCLocal storm report, Nov 27, 7:27 AM EST, 3 hours 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
727 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0726 AM SNOW SAUQUOIT 43.00N 75.25W
11/27/2018 M6.2 INCH ONEIDA NY TRAINED SPOTTER
1411FT
&&
HLCLocal storm report, Nov 27, 8:31 AM EST, 2 hours 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
831 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 AM SNOW NEW HARTFORD 43.07N 75.29W
11/27/2018 M2.0 INCH ONEIDA NY TRAINED SPOTTER
900FT
&&
HLCLocal storm report, Nov 27, 8:32 AM EST, 2 hours 27 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
832 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0831 AM SNOW PARIS 43.00N 75.32W
11/27/2018 M5.6 INCH ONEIDA NY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
HLCLocal storm report, Nov 27, 10:33 AM EST, 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1033 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1033 AM SNOW CORTLAND 42.60N 76.18W
11/27/2018 M1.9 INCH CORTLAND NY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
HLCNearby
Winter Storm Warnings in New York, 2018Every winter storm warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.