Wind Advisory 5, NWS Binghamton, NY

017 
WWUS71 KBGM 101623
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1123 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

NYZ046-057-110300-
/O.CON.KBGM.WI.Y.0005.181110T1700Z-181111T0300Z/
Otsego-Delaware-
Including the cities of Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton
1123 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Gusts at 
  highest elevations may reach 50 mph.

* TIMING...This afternoon through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wind advisories are issued when sustained wind speeds of at
greater than 30 mph and/or wind gusts over 45 mph are expected.
Winds of this magnitude could cause minor damage to trees, power
lines and weaker structures. Persons in the advisory area should
secure all loose objects. If you are traveling through the
advisory area keep a firm grip on the wheel, especially for those
driving high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

583 
WWUS71 KBGM 102006
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
306 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

NYZ046-057-110300-
/O.CON.KBGM.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-181111T0300Z/
Otsego-Delaware-
Including the cities of Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton
306 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Gusts at 
  highest elevations may reach 50 mph.

* TIMING...Peak winds during the early evening hours. Winds 
  diminish by late evening and overnight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wind advisories are issued when sustained wind speeds of at
greater than 30 mph and/or wind gusts over 45 mph are expected.
Winds of this magnitude could cause minor damage to trees, power
lines and weaker structures. Persons in the advisory area should
secure all loose objects. If you are traveling through the
advisory area keep a firm grip on the wheel, especially for those
driving high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

238 
WWUS71 KBGM 110222
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
922 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

NYZ046-057-110330-
/O.CAN.KBGM.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-181111T0300Z/
Otsego-Delaware-
Including the cities of Oneonta, Delhi, and Walton
922 PM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
101 AM EST Sat Nov 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be much colder through the weekend, as gusty west winds
produce scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries from
the Twin Tiers northward. Accumulating lake effect snow is
expected late today into Sunday for parts of Onondaga, Madison,
and Oneida Counties. After dry weather Monday, another large
system will bring rain or snow Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10 pm update...
Minor changes again this evening to make timing adjustments to
the rain area and temperatures. Changeover was timed well.
Temperatures on the rise now to the upper 30s and lower 40s, but
front just upstream. This will come through in the next few
hours dropping temperatures again.

Rainfall amounts have been over an inch in the far south. Rises
on streams and rivers have been the most there but still minor
and nothing to worry about.

315 pm update... A band of steady, occasionally heavy
precipitation, continues to translate across CNY/NEPA this
afternoon, owing to a vigorous short-wave, favorable upper jet
dynamics, and deepening moisture. Effects from wet bulb cooling
and melting in the lower levels of the atmosphere have cooled
boundary layer temperatures enough for a snow/sleet mix in many
locations, particularly the higher elevations, where slippery
travel conditions have been reported in spots. A Special Weather
Statement (SPS) has been issued to address this situation.
Travel could remain locally tricky into the evening commute
period, particularly elevated spots and areas near and east of
the I-81 corridor. We continue to advertise snowfall
accumulations in the higher terrain of 1-2", with locally 3-4"
in the Catskills and southern Tug Hill region. Meanwhile, in our
far southern zones (mostly along and south of I-84),
temperatures have been warm enough for all rain thus far.

Based on upstream temperatures to the west and south and
continued low-level warm advection into the evening, we still
anticipate a slow rise in readings, leading to a change over to
all rain, before precipitation tapers off and becomes more
showery later this evening.

During the pre-dawn hours, an increasing westerly flow and the
beginnings of low-level cold advection may cause any residual
showers to begin mix with snow. A developing lake-effect band
off Lake Erie could briefly extend into western Steuben/Yates,
with somewhat more persistent rain/snow showers. The Lake
Ontario band should stay north of Oneida County overnight.

Lows by daybreak should range from the upper 20s-mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 pm update... A cold west-southwest flow will prevail
Saturday, as a powerful cyclone tracks across the Canadian
Maritimes. Although a few flurries or light snow showers are
anticipated from time to time, much of the day should be dry,
under partly sunny-mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures are not
likely to move much, owing to the low-level cold advection, with
highs only in the low-mid 30s.

Saturday night-Sunday morning, veering of the low-level winds
into the west-northwest (280-290 vector) should shift the Lake
Ontario snow band southward, first into northern Oneida, then to
near the Thruway corridor (northern Onondaga, northern Madison,
and central-southern Oneida). Persistence of the band points to
potential accumulations of 2-4". One detractor is less than
optimal microphysics, with the best lift below the dendrite
growth zone. At least at this early vantage point, accumulations
are expected to stay just below advisory criteria.

Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and Monday, the flow should
slowly back again into the west and then southwest, as a low
level ridge axis crosses CNY/NEPA. Thus, lake-effect bands
should lift north and weaken over time. By Monday, weak warm
advection forcing may produce some additional light rain/snow
showers over parts of upstate NY.

Cold air Sunday and Sunday night (highs Sunday only in the 30s,
with lows Sunday night in the 20s), should moderate Monday into
the upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended period begins with an interesting system that
tracks from the Gulf States northeast along the coast to New
England by Tuesday afternoon. The GFS continues to show a more
eastward track including the ensemble members which would imply
a colder/snowier forecast while the operational ECMWF is more
westward/warmer with the 850mb low tracking to our west. Best
chance for accumulating snow is late Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Still much to be decided but several inches of snow is
a possibility.

Behind this system much colder air will dominate the rest of
the extended forecast with temperatures running 10 to 15
degrees below seasonal levels.

Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, accumulating lake
effect snow looks likely southeast of Lake Ontario that will
shift east of the lake by Wednesday night. For the remainder of
the area scattered flurries or snow showers.

Thursday looks primarily dry with high pressure in the mid
Atlantic region and low pressure in the western Great Lakes.
This system may impact our weather on Friday with mixed
rain/snow showers.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z Update...
With a system departing prior to dawn, general improvement to
VFR is expected for all terminals but with lake effect caveats.
Scattered snow showers will intermittently cause fuel alternate
restrictions at KSYR-KRME before dawn, and then minor
restrictions at KELM-KITH-KBGM later this morning. The more
significant lake effect snow banding is expected to wait until
late afternoon into evening for KSYR-KRME, when 1-2 mile
visibility can be anticipated, but other terminals should
remain VFR. Winds will become westerly while increasing into the
teens knots range during the daytime, with gusts into 20s and
perhaps around 30 knots at times this afternoon for at least the
NY terminals.

Outlook...

Late Saturday night through Sunday...Lake effect snow
restrictions expected for KSYR-KRME, otherwise VFR.

Sunday night through Monday...Mainly VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday...Restrictions in rain or snow.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Intermittent restrictions in
snow showers, especially KSYR-KRME.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...MDP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
347 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

NYZ015>017-022>025-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-102100-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-
Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-
Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-
347 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Locally slick roads are still possible late this afternoon and early
evening, due to a wintry mix of snow and sleet, particularly over the
higher terrain. Precipitation should change to all rain and taper off
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ009-018-036-037-102100-
Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida-
347 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Locally slick roads are still possible late this afternoon and early
evening, due to a wintry mix of snow and sleet, particularly over the
higher terrain. Precipitation should taper off this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Much colder air will plow across the region over the
weekend, producing accumulating lake effect snow late Saturday
through Sunday morning. The best chance for more persistent lake snow
will be along and north of the Thruway corridor. Monitor the
forecast for the latest updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ043-044-047-048-072-102100-
Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
347 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Rain will continue into this evening, heavy at times. Leaf-clogged
drains, roadways, and other areas of poor drainage may experience
ponding of water.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Jurewicz