Wind Advisory 3, NWS Binghamton, NY

042 
WWUS71 KBGM 041656
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1256 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044>046-057-050600-
/O.CON.KBGM.WI.Y.0003.180504T2100Z-180505T0600Z/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Delaware-
Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, 
Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, 
Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi,
and Walton
1256 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Most of central New York, including Steuben, 
  Schuyler, Yates, Seneca, Tompkins, Cortland, southern Cayuga, 
  Onondaga, Oneida, Madison, Chenango, Otsego, and Delaware 
  Counties.

* HAZARDS...Strong gusty winds.

* WINDS...Southwest to west 15 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 
  mph.

* TIMING...Late this afternoon into tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wind advisories are issued when sustained wind speeds of at
greater than 30 mph and/or wind gusts over 45 mph are expected.
Winds of this magnitude could cause minor damage to trees, power
lines and weaker structures. Persons in the advisory area should
secure all loose objects. If you are traveling through the
advisory area keep a firm grip on the wheel, especially for those
driving high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

Jurewicz

109 
WWUS71 KBGM 050127
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
927 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044>046-057-050600-
/O.CON.KBGM.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180505T0600Z/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Delaware-
Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, 
Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, 
Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi,
and Walton
927 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...Most of central New York, including Steuben, 
  Schuyler, Yates, Seneca, Tompkins, Cortland, southern Cayuga, 
  Onondaga, Oneida, Madison, Chenango, Otsego, and Delaware 
  Counties.

* HAZARDS...Strong gusty winds.

* WINDS...West 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* TIMING...Late this evening into tonight.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Wind advisories are issued when sustained wind speeds of at
greater than 30 mph and/or wind gusts over 45 mph are expected.
Winds of this magnitude could cause minor damage to trees, power
lines and weaker structures. Persons in the advisory area should
secure all loose objects. If you are traveling through the
advisory area keep a firm grip on the wheel, especially for those
driving high profile vehicles.

&&

$$

469 
WWUS71 KBGM 050251
NPWBGM

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1051 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044>046-057-050400-
/O.CAN.KBGM.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180505T0600Z/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Delaware-
Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, 
Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, 
Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, Cortland, Norwich, Oneonta, Delhi,
and Walton
1051 PM EDT Fri May 4 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has cancelled the Wind
Advisory.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
156 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary, will remain draped across the region early
this morning with a few showers, especially for central New
York. A cold front, will push across the area late today with
more showers and thunderstorms. Saturday looks rain free, with
high pressure in control.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
835 PM UPDATE...Ripples moving through the dirty ridge will set
off showers at times overnight, with perhaps a rumble of
thunder. Updated the pop grids to be more general with the
distribution of the showers overnight, but tried to keep some
timing in with higher pops as the ripples raced through.
Otherwise just some minor adjustments to the temps and winds
overnight into early Friday.

2 pm update... An area of showers and thunderstorms, tied to an
upper-level wave, along with a weak frontal boundary draped
just to our north, will push across mainly NY's southern tier
and NEPA late this afternoon into the early evening. Given ML
CAPE increasing to 500-1000 j/kg, steep low-level lapse rates,
and deep-layered shear, a few storms could produce strong, gusty
winds.

Later this evening, showers should temporarily decrease in
coverage, before blossoming again in the pre-dawn period, as the
above mentioned W-E oriented frontal boundary lurks near the
PA/NY border, and upper-level forcing begins to increase from
the west late at night. Probabilities for showers will increase
into the likely range for our CNY zones, with chance/scattered
values by the time you get down into the Wyoming/Lackawanna
Valleys and the southern Poconos.

Temperatures will be mild again tonight, with lows by daybreak
only in the upper 50s-mid 60s for most locales.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
210 pm update... The above mentioned frontal zone should move
quickly northward Friday morning as a warm front, in response to
strengthening SW flow, ahead of the main upper-level trough and
surface cold front back to the west.

Despite CNY/NEPA emerging into the warm sector during the day,
instability is still somewhat in question, with diminishing
mid-level lapse rates from the west during the afternoon/early
evening, and uncertainty in cloud cover. Right now, areas with
the best chance to see breaks of sunshine and more
destabilization are NY's southern tier and NEPA. What looks very
likely is a strongly sheared environment, as the wind fields
significantly strengthen during the day Friday. Again, stability
is the main question, and we'll monitor this situation in future
updates.

After showers initially diminish from S-N in the morning with
the lifting warm front, convection will likely increase ahead of
the main cold front by mid-late afternoon. Recent model runs
have slowed the progress of the front down, with frontal passage
not likely to occur until early evening across our eastern
zones. Highs Friday afternoon should range from the mid 70s in
our far northern and western zones, to the low-mid 80s across
portions of NEPA.

Later Friday night, once the cold front pushes off to our south
and east, showers/storms will quickly exit. Skies are likely to
clear overnight, with a fresh push of cooler and drier air
nudging temperatures down into the 40s and lower 50s by
daybreak Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 PM Update...
High pressure is expected over the region on Saturday with an
abundance of sunshine and light winds. Temps from the upper 60s
to low 70s look reasonable.

A weak cold front enters New York later Saturday night as a wave of
low pressure develops over the southeastern states. The combination
of these two features will bring a chance for inclement weather for
much of Sunday, with the highest probability for rain across NEPA
and our SE NY zones. Once these features exit into the Atlantic on
Sunday night...the model consensus suggests that much of next week
will be fair and seasonable under sprawling high pressure. A cold
front approaches for next Thursday with a good chance for more
showers. Timing is still up for grabs with that system as models
diverge a bit.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 am update...

A warm front along the NYS thruway is providing some IFR
conditions early this morning. SYR has fallen to IFR cigs and
vsbys. RME is MVFR now but shows signs of falling to IFR too.
These conditions here will continue until around 12z when the
front lifts back north and surface winds increase. MVFR rises to
VFR midday.

Further south in NY conditions will fall to MVFR. Fuel alternate
MVFR at ITH likely and maybe ELM/BGM. Conditions rise to VFR
midday.

AVP stays mostly VFR today. Some showers 11 to 14z could drop
them to MVFR.

This afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms
will move through but will be short lived so did not add tempos
yet.

Early this morning light and variable winds. Around 13z
southwest winds increase to 10 kts then increase further to 10
to 15 with higher gusts midday. Wind shift to west between 00
and 02z with cold front. Winds stay strong and may increase.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR. Risk of some restrictions in
occasional rain on Sunday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...DGM/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
342 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

NYZ024-055-056-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-050745-
Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-
Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
342 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon and
evening. A few of the storms could become severe with damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044>046-057-050745-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-
Delaware-
342 AM EDT Fri May 4 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected again during this afternoon and
evening. A few of the storms could become severe with damaging
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.