Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
428 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will taper off this evening with
another warm and muggy night in store for the region. On
Wednesday, the warm and humid air will combine with an upper
level disturbance and produce another round of showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday
night and bring less humid air to the region with seasonable
temperatures for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Radar continues to show scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms from the highlands of central NY southward to
northeast Pa. Farther north and west, there were more isolated
showers at this time. SPC mesoanalysis page shows mixed layer
CAPEs at or above 1000 J/kg streaming northeast into northeast
PA/Catskills. North and west of these areas across the Finger
Lakes, Syracuse and Upper Mohawk Valley area mixed layer CAPEs
were less than 1000 J/kg. Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level
short wave moving east into southern Quebec. This combined with
strong diurnal heating was supporting the shower and storm
activity in our forecast area at present. As the wave moves
east and we lose the heating, activity will wane and our POPs
for showers and thunderstorms reflect this. We are mentioning
locally heavy rainfall into the evening given the high
precipitable water values, decent low- level wind fields and
deep warm cloud depth which is over 10,000 feet. We wind this
activity down by this evening with just a few lingering showers
into the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, a more significant short wave moves into the
eastern Great Lakes and induces a 20-25 knot low-level jet up
into PA and central NY from the south by afternoon. This will
feed moisture and lead to significant instability with diurnal
heating. Surface based CAPES could exceed 2000 J/kg. 0-6 km bulk
shear will range from in the mid-upper 20s knots and is hence
low for significant thunderstorm organization. Model soundings
indicate highest mixed layer instability will be in northeast
Pa but all of central NY will likely have mixed layer CAPEs over
1000 J/kg. The low-level jet is around 20 knots, mid level
winds around 25 to 30 knots, and precipitable water values will
be over 2 inches. The warm cloud depth will be over 10,000 feet.
SPC day 2 outlook looks on track with a marginal risk for SVR.
WPC flash flood outlook also is a marginal risk which looks on
track. Will mention potential for severe and flash flood threat in
HWO. Activity will wane Wednesday night with loss of day's
heating and the passage of the short wave to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
425 PM Update...
Medium range models continue to advertise an amplifying trough
over the western Great Lakes cutting off into a closed low
somewhere over the western Lakes and Ohio Valley during the
weekend. There is still indication in some of the guidance for
eastward movement of the system early next week. This area will
be on the eastern side of the system in an environment with
ample moisture and unsettled conditions at times, particularly
driven by weak upper level features ejecting around the closed
low and diurnal trends.

A cold front moving through early Thursday will be the focus for
showers and thunderstorms, then it takes residence over central
PA and southern New England in response to the digging and
slowing upper features. Chances for showers/thunderstorms will
continue for much of the period, particularly focused toward our
southern zones, while chances may erode across the north where
there will be a stronger influence of surface high pressure.
Friday and Saturday may turn out to be the relatively driest
days during this period before deep moisture returns and forcing
increases if the low drifts eastward into the area from Sunday-
Tuesday.

As is typical with verically stacked systems, the uncertainty in
the forecast is high and this forecast could easily go awry if
the system fails to eject out of the Midwest. Stay tuned.

Temperatures will be generally seasonable in the upper 70s to
mid 80s with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of this TAF
period. A period of MVFR w/ brief IFR thunderstorms are likely
between with a passing mid level trough. The timing for this
activity 18Z-20Z at KRME/KSYR, 18Z-22Z at KITH/KELM/KBGM and
20Z-22Z at KAVP. Late tonight IFR conditions are possible at
KELM/KBGM with more widespread MVFR at KITH/KRME but confidence
is low.

Southerly at 5-10 knots this afternoon then light and variable
this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Restrictions likely at times in scattered showers
and t'storms.

Thursday...Mainly VFR expected.

Friday-Sunday...Restrictions possible at times in scattered
showers and t'storms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
405 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-082015-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
405 PM EDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely with a few storms possibly becoming severe.
The main threat would be strong winds and brief heavy downpours. The
thunderstorm activity will die down early this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are likely again on Wednesday especially from the
southern tier in central New York south through northeast
Pennsylvania. A few of these storms could also be severe with strong
winds and brief heavy downpours the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday afternoon.

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
523 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     FLOOD            1 NW EVERGREEN          41.63N  76.43W
08/07/2018                   BRADFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER OVER ROADWAY NEAR ROUTE 220 AND MEAS RD.

&&

BJG/CJH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
527 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     FLOOD            1 WSW DEPOSIT           42.05N  75.45W
08/07/2018                   BROOME             NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER ROADWAY ON OLD ROUTE 17

&&

BJG

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