Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
745 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
This afternoon will be hot and humid with isolated
thunderstorms. The best chance for thunderstorms will be late
tonight and Tuesday as a cold front moves through the region.
High pressure will bring cooler and less humid weather for
Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
250 pm update...

Only minor adjustments made to the forecast. Heat and humidity
today will break Tuesday with a cold front. So far today terrain
causing enough lift to create showers and thunderstorms. This
convection across the Poconos north through the Catskills to the
Upper Susquehanna Region. With light winds these storms are
moving little so heavy rain of over an inch has fallen in the
Poconos. Precipitable water amounts around 2 inches will
continue until the front goes through. Storms will continue to
back build creating a slow forward movement.

A weak short wave will move through the Finger Lakes this
evening helping to trigger some slow moving scattered showers
and thunderstorms. This area is in a drought so 1 to 2 inches of
rain shouldn't do much. This will act to prime the area for the
rain ahead of the front later.

With the humid air mass low temperatures will only fall to the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

The bigger show will be late tonight through Tuesday ahead of
the cold front. This will provide the forcing for the moisture
that is in place. Showers and thunderstorms will become
widespread late tonight in the Finger Lakes then move southeast
through the rest of the area by noon. Ending times will be
afternoon in western sections of CNY to early evening in the
Poconos.

Severe threat low but instability will be good with about 30 kts
of shear. Clearing is in question which will hinder heating.
Despite this some advection will get highs into the lower 80s.

Tuesday night will become mainly clear with dry advection from
the northwest behind the front. Temperatures will fall back to
closer to average with upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build into the region Wednesday then move
over the region on Thursday. Both days look rather sunny. The
airmass also will be quite cool and comfortable with highs in
the 70's after morning lows generally in the 50's. With the high
pressure over the region it will be a favorable setup for
radiational cooling so it would not be surprising for some
locations to fall into the mid and upper 40's. Thursday looks to
be only slightly warmer during the day than Wednesday.
Northwest winds Wednesday around 10 mph will decrease by
Thursday with the high pressure overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday through Saturday:

Our region is on the backside of the high pressure which means
once again a warm and moist flow will advect into the region
with humidity and temperatures slowly on the increase. Lows will
creep into the 60's Friday night with highs Friday back into
the 80's. Bumped the high temperatures upward a bit on Friday
given 925 mb temperatures modeled around 22-24C. Overall, the
pattern continues to slow slightly leading to a higher
probability of dry weather through Saturday but some high
clouds should be increasing during the day.

Saturday night through Monday:

The overall synoptic pattern is one that can produce several
rounds of showers and storms with a heavy rain threat. At 500
mb, a low pressure system will slow and attempt to dig and
cutoff across the Ohio Valley with ridging off the east coast.
This would result in a very aggressive stream of moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coming northeast into the
region. The ECMWF and CMC runs and a fair cluster of ensemble
members from those models actually have this trough become
neutral to negatively tilted by Sunday which would raise the
possibility for development of a coastal low in addition to the
upper level low over the Ohio Valley. Another question is if the
low forming along the coast will have any tropical
characteristics. Right now model tracks of any coastal low are
generally up the Mid-Atlantic coast in the Sunday and Monday
timeframe with several members showing a left turn into our
region as the ECMWF 12Z 7/16. Still a lot of model runs to sort
the details for next weekend. Clouds and rain should knock
highs down closer to 80 with muggy lows in the 60's each day.
This forecast undercut the blended guidance by a couple of
degrees each day with the highs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Challenging forecast tonight with the scattered thunderstorms
ongoing and the potential for more widespread showers and storms
later tonight and Tuesday morning along the front...with
potentially additional storms around KAVP lingering into the
late morning and early afternoon hours. Conditions will likely
remain VFR this evening except in TS where brief periods of IFR
vsbys and MVFR cigs are possible. Showers and storms later
tonight and Tue morning will also bring flight conditions to
IFR-MVFR at times. Timing will be difficult to nail down...so
kept with the broad 06Z to about 16Z time frame. A few hours
later in KAVP. Conditions return to VFR Tue afternoon behind the
front with winds gusting to around 20 kt from the NW.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Maybe restrictions
in showers and thunderstorms late Saturday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-015>018-
     036-037.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...BJT/TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
836 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-180045-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
836 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms tonight may produce gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall leading to localized poor drainage flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of thunderstorms on Tuesday may produce gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

Hazardous weather is not expected from Wednesday to Sunday at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
906 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

NYZ044-045-170145-
Chenango NY-Cortland NY-
906 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...SOUTHERN CORTLAND AND
WEST CENTRAL CHENANGO COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

At 906 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Taylor to near Virgil. Movement was
southeast at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cortland, Solon, Cincinnatus, McGraw, Marathon, Pitcher, Lapeer,
Pharsalia, Taylor and Lincklaen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Binghamton.

&&

LAT...LON 4257 7568 4243 7610 4259 7623 4268 7584
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 317DEG 6KT 4265 7582 4251 7622

MWG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
931 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

NYZ022-024-170230-
Steuben NY-Chemung NY-
931 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHWESTERN CHEMUNG AND
SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

At 930 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westfield, or 11 miles northwest of Wellsboro, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Half inch hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Corning, Big Flats, Campbell, Caton, Lindley, Painted Post, Addison,
South Corning, Lawrenceville and Meads Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Binghamton.

&&

LAT...LON 4231 7714 4203 7684 4200 7693 4200 7744
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 234DEG 20KT 4189 7743

MWG

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