Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
407 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms
likely, as a cold front passes this afternoon and evening.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible. The weekend will be less
humid but still unsettled with scattered showers, mainly from
the Twin Tiers southward. Rain chances will be more areawide by
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon and
consolidated into a NE to SW line across the eastern Finger
Lakes. This line will drop south through the area the rest of
today. Intensity will be best during the daylight hours. Models
show a decrease for NEPA. Movement has been slow. Rain has been
heavy with flood advisories being issued. A moist unstable and
warm airmass is over the area. Instability is high but wind
shear and winds are light. PWATs are around 1.5". Cold front
remains well northwest of the area over Lakes Erie and Ontario
but should move through the area late this afternoon and early
evening. A few showers will linger across mostly the southern
areas late tonight. Severe thunderstorm chances are low but
flash flooding is possible. Hourly rainfall rates over an inch.

Temperatures in the 80s this afternoon will drop mostly into the
low 60s late tonight. This mostly due to cold air advection at
low levels. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy.

Saturday clouds and scattered showers linger across NEPA as the
front stalls in southeast PA. Some humidity still exists but not
as much as today. Chances finally diminish to almost nothing
Saturday night as the short wave passes and the front drops
further south.

With the drier air highs mostly in the 70s Saturday and lows in
the 50s Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Low pressure will be forming near Norfolk,VA during the morning
hours Sunday with another trough and area of low pressure
approaching our region from the Great Lakes. This second low
will move eastward through this period with the low along the
coast tracking northeast.

Both of these features will lead to moist southeast flow.
Showers should be fairly widespread ahead of these features as
well with the timing in the Sunday night and Monday morning
timeframe. We should be able to squeeze out a decent Sunday with
increasing clouds and highs in the 70's. The uncertainty in the
forecast involves any clearing Monday afternoon and the
resulting high temperature forecast. Right now a 5 SD spread is
present with ensemble data with the 12Z GFS being a cold
outlier damming the cold across the Catskills and keeping highs
in the 40's. Models and ensembles which clear out the rain by
Monday afternoon get highs into the 70's. For now, it looks like
western portions of the area clear out in the Finger Lakes with
the Poconos and southern Catskills seeing the showers linger
longer with cold air damming potential. Lows to start Monday
should be around 50 with quite the range in highs from the 50's
to upper 60's. Total rainfall should range from a quarter to
half inch on average.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Monday night through Wednesday night:

A possible lull in more concentrated showers is possible Monday
night. However, the trough of low pressure will continue to
swing southeast through the region on Tuesday. Some additional
showers should form ahead of this trough centered on the
afternoon and evening hours Tuesday as lapse rates steepen some.
A cooler pattern should continue with highs in the 60's after
morning lows in the upper 40's and 50's through Wednesday night.
Ensembles in general do not rule out the possibility lingering
into Wednesday as well so will continue with a low chance in
this period.

Thursday through Friday:

High pressure builds eastward into the region with more in the
way of sunshine and warmer temperatures. Highs should get into
the 70's with lows in the 50's.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
130 pm Update...

Showers and thunderstorms have started in the Finger Lakes and
should affect SYR with MVFR conditions mostly due to heavy rain.
A 2 to 3 hour period of MVFR is expected at all sites from north
to south up to 00z in NY and 23 to 02z at AVP. Otherwise VFR
with light southwest winds.

Tonight a repeat of last night. Ceilings fall behind a cold
front to IFR at ITH/BGM, fuel alternate MVFR RME/ELM/AVP and
high end MVFR at SYR late tonight. IFR ceilings could be
accompanied by MVFR vsbys. A NW wind will bring moist cool air
off of Cayuga Lake into ITH late tonight causing lower
conditions. Winds tonight light and variable or out of the NW.

Saturday ceilings slowly rise with the best conditions in the
north where drier air will be moving in. At 16z VFR at RME/SYR
and high end MVFR for the rest of the sites. North winds at 7
to 10 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...VFR NY. possible ceiling
restrictions/brief showers KAVP.

Sunday night through Monday...Periods of showers and at times
restrictions.

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
328 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-021930-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
328 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into evening.
Some thunderstorms could produce heavy rain and perhaps isolated
flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report localized heavy rainfall amounts
or flooding impacts should they occur this afternoon into evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
622 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FLOOD            COHOCTON                42.50N  77.50W
06/01/2018                   STEUBEN            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL BASEMENTS AND STREETS FLOODED. OVER 2 INCHES OF
            RAIN FELL (ESTIMATED) IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

BJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
635 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLOOD            BATH                    42.34N  77.32W
06/01/2018                   STEUBEN            NY   PUBLIC

            ABOUT 1 INCH OF WATER IN BASEMENTS IN THE BATH AREA.

&&

BJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
640 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HEAVY RAIN       NORTH THURSTON          42.27N  77.28W
06/01/2018  M0.74 INCH       STEUBEN            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.74" RAIN FELL IN 20 MINUTES (4:13PM-4:33PM)

&&

BJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
642 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BATH                    42.34N  77.32W
06/01/2018  M2.20 INCH       STEUBEN            NY   PUBLIC

            2.20" RAIN FELL SINCE STORM STARTED JUST AFTER 4PM.

&&

BJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
648 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FLOOD            COHOCTON                42.50N  77.50W
06/01/2018                   STEUBEN            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING DOWN REYNOLDS CREEK ROAD.

&&

BJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
655 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

NYZ015>017-023-025-020000-
Southern Cayuga NY-Seneca NY-Yates NY-Schuyler NY-Tompkins NY-
655 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT...SOUTHERN SENECA...
NORTHERN SCHUYLER...EASTERN YATES...SOUTHWESTERN CAYUGA AND
NORTHWESTERN TOMPKINS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 653 PM EDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms was located along a
line from near Dresden, to near Himrod, to near Pulteney. Movement
was east at 20 mph.

Strong wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph will be possible with these
storms. A wind gust around 30 mph was recently report by weather
observation equipment near Penn Yan.

Locations impacted include...
Ithaca, Penn Yan, Hector, Romulus, Cayuga Heights, Starkey, Lansing,
Enfield, Covert and Locke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.

&&

LAT...LON 4259 7706 4276 7705 4276 7698 4277 7697
      4273 7640 4246 7642 4235 7670 4247 7711
      4251 7711 4249 7713 4250 7715 4256 7715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 285DEG 18KT 4270 7699 4258 7700 4254 7710

DAB