Alert archive / New York / Blizzard Warnings in 2018
Blizzard Warning 1, NWS Binghamton, NY
NWS Binghamton, NY issued this blizzard warning at Mar 2, 2018, 12:42 PM EST for Delaware County, Otsego County, Sullivan County, New York; Pike County, Wayne County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 12 hr. 26 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 2, 2018, 12:42 PM EST (17:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 3, 2018, 1:00 AM EST
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Binghamton, NY
Counties Delaware County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Pike County, PA, Wayne County, PA
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 1:00 PM EST | SNOW 24 | Hobart, NY | |
| Mar 2, 1:03 PM EST | SNOW 16.5 | Delhi, NY | |
| Mar 2, 1:05 PM EST | SNOW 10 | Beach Lake, PA | TREE DOWN ON RESIDENCE. 10 TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. |
| Mar 2, 1:39 PM EST | SNOW 10 | Callicoon Center, NY | |
| Mar 2, 1:39 PM EST | SNOW 15 | Cooperstown, NY | LOTS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. |
| Mar 2, 1:49 PM EST | BLIZZARD | Milford, PA | DOZENS OF TREES DOWN ALONG 1-84 NEAR MILFORD VIA TWITTER. WEIGHT OF SNOW PLUS WIND SUSPECTED TO CAUSE TREE FALLS. |
| Mar 2, 3:04 PM EST | SNOW 15 | 7 W Walton, NY | 10.4 SINCE 8 AM. |
| Mar 2, 5:52 PM EST | SNOW 12.1 | Kiamesha, NY | |
| Mar 2, 6:33 PM EST | SNOW 17.1 | Oneonta, NY | |
| Mar 2, 8:00 PM EST | SNOW 17 | Emmons, NY | |
| Mar 2, 8:00 PM EST | SNOW 23 | Davenport, NY | |
| Mar 2, 8:56 PM EST | SNOW 17 | Delhi, NY | |
| Mar 2, 8:56 PM EST | SNOW 19 | Cherry Valley, NY | |
| Mar 2, 8:57 PM EST | SNOW 12.5 | Edmeston, NY | |
| Mar 2, 8:59 PM EST | SNOW 18 | Meridale, NY | |
| Mar 2, 9:02 PM EST | SNOW 13 | Milford, NY | |
| Mar 2, 9:03 PM EST | SNOW 16 | Oneonta, NY | |
| Mar 2, 9:04 PM EST | SNOW 19 | Schenevus, NY | |
| Mar 2, 9:05 PM EST | SNOW 15.3 | Sidney, NY | |
| Mar 2, 9:06 PM EST | SNOW 13 | Unadilla, NY | |
| Mar 2, 9:06 PM EST | SNOW 19 | Stamford, NY | 24-HOUR SNOWFALL. |
| Mar 2, 9:07 PM EST | SNOW 17 | Davenport, NY | |
| Mar 2, 9:07 PM EST | SNOW 20 | Oneonta, NY | |
| Mar 2, 9:12 PM EST | SNOW 7 | Grahamsville, NY | |
| Mar 2, 9:12 PM EST | SNOW 14.8 | Masonville, NY | |
| Mar 2, 10:00 PM EST | SNOW 21 | 6 W Delhi, NY |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 538 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 389 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 670 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
683 WWUS41 KBGM 021742 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1242 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 NYZ046-057-062-PAZ040-048-072-030600- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.BZ.W.0001.180302T1742Z-180303T0600Z/ Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Damascus, Equinunk, Milford, and Honesdale 1242 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting of the snow is likely. Additional snow accumulations of 10 to 14 inches are expected, especially at higher elevations. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Wayne, Pike Counties. In New York, Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very dangerous to impossible. Tree damage and scattered power outages expected especially at higher elevations from weight of snow and gusty winds. Winds gusting as high as 40 to 50 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ015>017-022>025-030600- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins- Including the cities of Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, Auburn, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Elmira, and Ithaca 1242 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected. * WHERE...Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga, Steuben, Schuyler, Chemung and Tompkins Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree damage and scattered power outages expected especially at higher elevations from weight of earlier wet snow and gusty winds. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ018-036-044-045-055-056-PAZ039-030600- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Onondaga-Madison-Cortland-Chenango-Tioga-Broome-Susquehanna- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Cortland, Norwich, Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Hallstead, and Montrose 1242 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches are expected, especially at higher elevations. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna County. In New York, Onondaga, Madison, Cortland, Chenango, Tioga and Broome Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree damage and scattered power outages expected especially at higher elevations from weight of snow and gusty winds. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ009-037-030600- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Northern Oneida-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Boonville, Rome, and Utica 1242 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches are expected, especially higher elevations of southern Oneida County * WHERE...Oneida County. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree damage and scattered power outages expected especially at higher elevations from weight of snow and gusty winds. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ PAZ038-043-044-047-030600- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Bradford-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne- Including the cities of Sayre, Towanda, Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, and Wilkes-Barre 1242 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow with near blizzard conditions at higher elevations. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 7 inches at higher elevations east of Interstate 81. * WHERE...Bradford, Wyoming, Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree branches could fall. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$
2 follow-up statements
176 WWUS41 KBGM 030047 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 747 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 NYZ046-057-062-PAZ040-048-072-030600- /O.CON.KBGM.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Damascus, Equinunk, Milford, and Honesdale 747 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Winds gusting as high as 40 to 50 mph will cause whiteout conditions in blowing snow. Significant drifting of the snow is likely. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected before midnight, especially at higher elevations. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Wayne and Pike Counties. In New York, Otsego, Delaware, and Sullivan Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very dangerous to impossible. Tree damage and scattered power outages expected, especially at higher elevations from weight of snow and gusty winds. Winds gusting as high as 40 to 50 mph will cause substantial blowing and drifting of the snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ015>017-022>025-030600- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins- Including the cities of Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, Auburn, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Elmira, and Ithaca 747 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 inches or less before midnight. * WHERE...Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga, Steuben, Schuyler, Chemung, and Tompkins Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree damage and scattered power outages expected, especially at higher elevations from weight of earlier wet snow and gusty winds. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ018-036-044-045-055-056-PAZ039-030600- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Onondaga-Madison-Cortland-Chenango-Tioga-Broome-Susquehanna- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Cortland, Norwich, Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Hallstead, and Montrose 747 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected before midnight, especially at higher elevations. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna County. In New York, Onondaga, Madison, Cortland, Chenango, Tioga, and Broome Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree damage and scattered power outages expected, especially at higher elevations from weight of snow and gusty winds. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ NYZ009-037-030600- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Northern Oneida-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Boonville, Rome, and Utica 747 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected before midnight, especially over the higher elevations. * WHERE...Oneida County. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree damage and scattered power outages expected, especially at higher elevations, from weight of snow and gusty winds. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ PAZ038-043-044-047-030600- /O.CON.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Bradford-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne- Including the cities of Sayre, Towanda, Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, and Wilkes-Barre 747 PM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, especially over the higher terrain, before midnight. * WHERE...Bradford, Wyoming, Lackawanna, and Luzerne Counties. * WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Tree branches could fall. Winds gusting as high as 40 to 50 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Jurewicz
915 WWUS41 KBGM 030548 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1248 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 NYZ046-057-062-PAZ040-048-072-030700- /O.EXP.KBGM.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Oneonta, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Damascus, Equinunk, Milford, and Honesdale 1248 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 ...BLIZZARD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... Scattered snow showers will persist into the overnight hours, along with gusty northwest winds between 15 to 30 mph. Any additional accumulations will be 1 inch or less. The gusty winds could still cause localized blowing and drifting snow. $$ NYZ015>017-022>025-030700- /O.EXP.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins- Including the cities of Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, Auburn, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Elmira, and Ithaca 1248 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... Scattered snow showers will persist into the overnight hours, along with gusty northwest winds between 15 to 30 mph. Any additional accumulations will be 1 inch or less. The gusty winds could still cause localized blowing and drifting snow. $$ NYZ018-036-044-045-055-056-PAZ039-030700- /O.EXP.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Onondaga-Madison-Cortland-Chenango-Tioga-Broome-Susquehanna- Including the cities of Syracuse, Hamilton, Oneida, Cortland, Norwich, Owego, Waverly, Binghamton, Hallstead, and Montrose 1248 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... Scattered snow showers will persist into the overnight hours, along with gusty northwest winds between 15 to 30 mph. Any additional accumulations will be 1 inch or less. The gusty winds could still cause localized blowing and drifting snow. $$ NYZ009-037-030700- /O.EXP.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Northern Oneida-Southern Oneida- Including the cities of Boonville, Rome, and Utica 1248 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... Scattered snow showers will persist into the overnight hours, along with gusty northwest winds between 15 to 30 mph. Any additional accumulations will be 1 inch or less. The gusty winds could still cause localized blowing and drifting snow. $$ PAZ038-043-044-047-030700- /O.EXP.KBGM.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180303T0600Z/ Bradford-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne- Including the cities of Sayre, Towanda, Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, and Wilkes-Barre 1248 AM EST Sat Mar 3 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING... Scattered snow showers will persist into the overnight hours, along with gusty northwest winds between 15 to 30 mph. Any additional accumulations will be 1 inch or less. The gusty winds could still cause localized blowing and drifting snow. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this blizzard warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this blizzard warning went out at Mar 2, 11:21 AM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 2, 11:21 AM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1121 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
A complex, significant winter storm will impact the region area
today into tonight. This storm will bring periods of heavy snow
and very strong gusty winds to the area. Near blizzard
conditions possible at times over the higher elevations,
especially east of Interstate 81. Colder weather and scattered
snow showers will continue into the weekend. Dry and seasonable
weather is expected for Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1115 AM Update...
High impact winter storm will continue to affect the area
through this evening. As expected there is a huge difference in
valleys versus higher elevations in terms of snow amounts,
ranging from just a few inches to well over a foot so far. In
the northern zones including NY Thruway corridor, snow has been
more equal-opportunity with Syracuse already around 10 inches so
far.
We are transitioning into the second phase of this storm, where
heaviest snow axis is focused along and especially east of the
I-81 corridor, while winds have already picked up considerably
in the west and will continue to do so for the rest of the area
into the afternoon. Anomalously strong 850mb jet is surging
moisture from the Atlantic across New England and into our
region, especially Catskills-Poconos. However, models have the
convergence zone and warm air advection aloft, now reaching to
about I-81 through early afternoon, becoming more diffuse and
then edging eastward mid afternoon through evening. For now, 1-2
inches per hour snowfall rates have been common especially
higher elevations along and east of I-81, and a few snowfall
reports from trained spotters have even hit 2-3 inches per hour.
Snowfall-wise, the height of the storm is already past for west
of I-81 but is ongoing along and to the east. Winds-wise,
north-northwest gusts of 30-40 mph have been common west of I-81
and are starting to head across the rest of the area. They will
push into 35-45 mph range this afternoon before gradually
diminishing tonight, and highest elevations could approach 50
mph. This will lead to near blizzard conditions for our Poconos-
to-Catskills zones and into higher elevations of Chenango-
Otsego-southern Madison-southern Oneida. It remains a
possibility that the Winter Storm Warning could be upgraded to
Blizzard Warning; the only thing holding back Blizzard Warning
for those hardest hit zones in addition to winds barely hitting
criteria is the fact that the snow is fairly dense/much of it
has been wet, and thus not quite as free-flying as it could be.
Regardless of semantics/definitions, very difficult if not
impossible travel can be expected for those areas. With time,
top layer of snow/additional newfallen snow will take on a drier
texture and thus prone to blowing and drifting.
Previous discussion...
Steady to occasionally heavy precipitation has now overspread
the entire area. Precipitation is in the form of snow now for
most locations, except the lower elevations in NE Pennsylvania,
where the transition to all snow should happen prior to
daybreak. Have already received reports of heavy snow
accumulations (4-8"+) over the western and northern portion of
our forecast area. Heavy snow bands are already beginning to
setup along and East of I-81 as Atlantic moisture wraps into the
area.
Mid-level, 700mb low is evident over Central PA on the latest
GOES-E WV imagery. The primary surface low that was over western
PA yesterday evening is now quickly transferring energy to a
rapidly deepening coastal low just of the NJ coast. Latest
analysis has the surface low at 990mb as of 0300 LST. Leaned the
forecast toward the mesoscale models (4km NAM, RAP, HRRR) as
these were all in fairly good agreement...and seemed to potentially
have a better handle on the complex set up of this fast
evolving winter storm. The courser resolution global models
(GFS, CMC NH, ECMWF) seemed just a bit too far east with the
developing surface low...but were otherwise generally in line
with the mesoscale model guidance. By 0900 LST a 982mb surface
low is forecast to be located south of Long Island. The 700mb
low continues to strengthen as it slides off to the east, aided
by a 145kt jet at the 300mb level. The mid-level low then
captures the surface low basically in place (south of Long
Island) as the system becomes vertically stacked this afternoon.
The surface low may complete a small, counter-clockwise loop
deepening to around 975mb. The vertically stacked low pressure
system then slowly drifts off to the south and east, out to sea
by this evening.
Steady snow will fall at rates of 0.5-1.5" per hour across just
about the entire CWA through about 9 AM. Then, during the late
morning and afternoon hours the heaviest snowfall will become
focused basically along and east of Interstate 81...with lighter
snow and snow showers continuing west of an Auburn--Ithaca--
Towanda line. A strong influx of Atlantic moisture associated
with a highly anomalous 80-90kt jet at 850mb over New England
will allow heavy bands of snow to persist along and east of I-81
through this afternoon...and particularly intense bands could
periodically produce snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr. An intense area
of mid level frontogenetical forcing will allow a deformation
band of heavy snow to remain in place through much of the day
from Syracuse--Binghamton--Scranton and points east. Temperatures
will hold steady or even fall a few degrees through the
day...mainly 25-30F in the higher elevations and 28-33F in the
valleys. Snowfall rates begin to decrease after about 4 pm...but
snow showers and periods of light snow will persist into the
evening hours. Another aspect of this powerful storm system will
be the increasing winds. Winds shift out of the north-northwest
by mid to late morning....increase to 20-30 mph, with gusts
40-50 mph during the afternoon and early evening hours. This
will create areas of significant blow/drifting snow...with near
blizzard conditions possible at times over the higher terrain
today. Scattered power outages will also be a problem as the
initial snow is heavy/wet and will cling to the trees. Left
winter storm warnings in place as is for now. Did raise snow
totals to be more in line with what the mesoscale (4km NAM, RAP,
HRRR) models were indicating. In general this gives storm
totals of 10-18 inches east of I-81...with local amounts up to 2
feet in the Catskill mountains. West of I-81 snow totals will
be more in the 5-10 inch range...except 10-15 inches for the
higher elevations of Steuben and Yates counties. Chemung,
Bradford and Luzerne counties were a very tough forecast...as
these areas more or less missed out on the heavier snow band
associated with the primary low...and will also most likely miss
out on the heavier snow bands with the coastal low later today.
Also, surface temps are somewhat marginal for accumulating
snowfall in the valleys of these counties. For these
areas...snow totals will likely end up in the 3-8 inch range
(except far NE Luzerne county...which will see 8-12 inches).
Temperatures drop into the mid and upper 20s for tonight.
Northwest winds will remain gusty into the evening hours...but
then begin to decrease toward Saturday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper low continues to drift slowly east over the Western
Atlantic. This will keep a gusty northerly flow over the area
Saturday. Limited wrap around moisture will bring some scattered
snow showers and flurries into early Sunday. Air is not all that
cold so the lake contribution will be small. Best chance for
activity will be over the higher terrain of central NY. High
pressure builds in later Sunday bringing lighter winds and drier
air. Previous discussion continues below.
Major winter storm will be situated well off the east coast by
Saturday morning but wrap around moisture will still bring a
chance for snow showers and flurries especially across central
New York. Boundary layer temperatures warm enough by afternoon
for mixed rain/snow showers. High will range in the middle to
upper 30s.
Saturday night/Sunday...
Saturday night, scattered flurries still possible across
central New York primarily west of I81 with some moisture
enhancement from Lake Ontario. Otherwise a dry period with high
pressure in the western Great Lakes building into the region.
Lows will range in the mid to upper 20s with highs Sunday in the
mid to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Little change to the long term. Showers move in late Tuesday as
a mature low spins over the northern plains. Temperatures will
be marginal so mixed precipitation is expected. Overall, reading
will be above normal through the period. Previous discussion
below.
Medium range models are in fair agreement through the early part
of the forecast then diverge with the next system that comes out
of the mid west.
Sunday night through Monday night will be dry with seasonable
temperatures as an upper level ridge builds across the northeast
and surface high pressure noses down from eastern Canada.
Tuesday through Thursday will carry chance pops as low pressure
lifts into the eastern Great Lakes with a coastal system
developing near Delmarva along the triple point then tracking
northeast along the coast. Highs temperatures will gradually
cool down through the period but during the daylight hours
especially the precipitation will be a rain/snow mix.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Snow will continue for the next several hours bringing LIFR or
IFR to all sites with moderate to heavy snow, and eventually
blowing snow. Blowing snow will develop with wind gusts over 40
kts possible as the low deepens off the coast. Return to MVFR
is expected around or just after 00Z as the low moves off.
Outlook...
Saturday...VFR/MVFR in Scattered snow showers.
Sunday through Tuesday...VFR, though rain/mix and associated
incoming restrictions possible late Tuesday-Tuesday night.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MJM/MWG
NEAR TERM...MJM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DGM/RRM
LONG TERM...DGM/RRM
AVIATION...DGMHazardous weather outlook, Mar 2, 5:01 AM EST, 7 hours 41 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 501 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 NYZ018-036-044-045-055-056-PAZ039-031015- Onondaga-Madison-Cortland-Chenango-Tioga-Broome-Susquehanna- 501 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NYZ009-037-031015- Northern Oneida-Southern Oneida- 501 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NYZ015>017-022>025-031015- Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins- 501 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ038-043-044-047-031015- Bradford-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne- 501 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NYZ046-057-062-PAZ040-048-072-031015- Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-Northern Wayne-Pike-Southern Wayne- 501 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 2, 11:08 AM EST, 1 hour 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1108 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 AM SNOW ONEIDA 43.08N 75.66W
03/02/2018 M12.0 INCH MADISON NY TRAINED SPOTTER
12" OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. 2" OF SNOWFALL IN THE
PAST 90 MINUTES.
&&
CJPLocal storm report, Mar 2, 11:20 AM EST, 1 hour 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1120 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 AM SNOW MILFORD 42.59N 74.95W
03/02/2018 E14.0 INCH OTSEGO NY SOCIAL MEDIA
&&
CJPLocal storm report, Mar 2, 11:45 AM EST, 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1145 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1140 AM SNOW CLINTON 43.05N 75.38W
03/02/2018 M16.0 INCH ONEIDA NY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
CJPLocal storm report, Mar 2, 11:51 AM EST, 51 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1151 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 AM SNOW WALTON 42.17N 75.13W
03/02/2018 M18.0 INCH DELAWARE NY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
CJPLocal storm report, Mar 2, 11:59 AM EST, 43 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1159 AM EST FRI MAR 02 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM SNOW 1 E BINGHAMTON 42.10N 75.88W
03/02/2018 M8.0 INCH BROOME NY TRAINED SPOTTER
8.0" TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. 2" WITHIN THE PAST 2
HOURS.
&&
CJPLocal storm report, Mar 2, 12:30 PM EST, 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1230 PM EST FRI MAR 02 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1215 PM SNOW 2 SSW JOHNSON CITY 42.10N 75.98W
03/02/2018 M8.3 INCH BROOME NY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
CJPNearby
Blizzard Warnings in New York, 2018Blizzard Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2018Every blizzard warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.