Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
250 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

At 2 PM, watching a thunderstorm bow (associated with a mesoscale
convective vortex moving out of northwest Iowa) over north-
central Iowa. While there has been several Severe Thunderstorm
Warnings issued with bow, there has not been any reports of severe
weather at this time. This bow is expected to continue to move
northeast through our area this afternoon and early evening. ML
CAPES are currently in the 1 to 2K J/kg along and south of
Interstate 90 and they are expected to climb into the 1500 to 3000
J/kg range later on this afternoon. The effective shear is
favorable for marginal supercells to develop along Interstate 90
through mid afternoon and then it moves off to the east.
Meanwhile, the 0-3 km shear will remain in the 25 to 30 knot range
along and south of Interstate 90. Due to this, storms should be
mainly linear in nature. Bowing segments will be of greatest
concern along the line for damaging winds. In addition, there
could be some large hail with the initial development. The 0-1 km
shear looks a little weak for tornadoes. However, it is a bit
concerning seeing an easterly flow near the Interstate 90
corridor. Fortunately, the wind speeds are not that strong. Just
something to watch this afternoon. Speaking of watches, SPC is
currently monitoring the area for a watch. It continues to look
like the severe weather threat will quickly wane by 14.01z.

With precipitable water values running into the 2 to 2.3 inches
and warm cloud layer depths around 4 km through this evening, any
showers and storms will be highly efficient rain producers. As a
result, we will have to watch for the potential of localized
flooding with any training cells this afternoon and early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

On Sunday night and Monday, a longwave trough will move southeast
through area. The greatest lift associated with this wave will be
remain across Ontario, northern Minnesota, and Upper Michigan. The
associated cold front with this system will move the area on
Sunday night. With ML CAPES running in the 1 to 2K J/kg range and
weak 0-3 km and 0-6km shear, the severe chances look to be
marginal.

From Wednesday afternoon into Friday, another longwave trough will
move slowly east through the region. This will bring another round
of showers and storms to the area. With ML CAPES running up to 1K
J/kg range and weak 0-3 km and 0-6km shear, not anticipating any
severe weather with this system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

A line of storms is expected to initially develop across northeast
Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and north of Interstate 90 in western
Wisconsin somewhere 13.18z and 13.20z and then move southeast
through the region. At this time the best chance of thunderstorms
for KRST will be from 13.19z through 13.22z and at KLSE from
13.20z through 14.01z.

There is some hints in the models that the ceilings may become
MVFR toward sunrise at the TAF sites. Confidence was not high
enough to include them at KRST, but did include it for KLSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...Boyne

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1125 AM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-141200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
1125 AM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into early this evening.
Some of the storms may become severe with damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall, mainly along and south of Interstate 90.
The main timeframe for severe storms will be between 1 PM and 8
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periods of thunderstorms are possible this weekend. Severe
weather is not expected at this time. Additional thunderstorms
are possible Wednesday into Thursday. It is too early to determine
the severe threat for any thunderstorms later next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Localized spotter activation may be needed between 1 PM and 8 PM
over portions of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

Wetenkamp

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
506 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HEAVY RAIN       DECORAH                 43.30N 91.79W
07/13/2018  M2.16 INCH       WINNESHIEK         IA   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DECRH, DECORAH. THE DURATION
            OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 1 HOUR.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
518 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

IAZ029-030-132315-
Clayton-Fayette-
518 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLAYTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES...

At 516 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Strawberry
Point, or 14 miles northwest of Manchester, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Guttenberg, Strawberry Point, Arlington, Volga, North Buena Vista,
Garber, Osterdock, Elkport, Millville, Mederville, Turkey River,
Bixby State Park and Joy Springs County Park.

LAT...LON 4264 9174 4282 9173 4282 9108 4274 9105
      4274 9104 4272 9102 4269 9095 4268 9090
      4265 9090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 266DEG 35KT 4267 9159

Baumgardt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
525 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PRAIRIE DU CHIEN  AIRPO 43.02N 91.12W
07/13/2018  M52 MPH          CRAWFORD           WI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION PDC, PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AIRPORT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
525 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     PRAIRIE DU CHIEN  AIRPO 43.02N 91.12W
07/13/2018  M52 MPH          CRAWFORD           WI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION PDC, PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AIRPORT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
549 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

MNZ096-WIZ041-053-132315-
Houston-Vernon-La Crosse-
549 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...A AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD THE GREATER LA
CROSSE LA CRESCENT AND STODDARD AREAS...

At 546 PM CDT, radar indicated weakening but strong thunderstorms
were located along a line extending from near Hokah to near
Stoddard. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph are expected as these storms move
in through 7 pm.

Locations impacted include... La Crosse, La Crescent, Onalaska,
West Salem, Bangor, Stoddard, Coon Valley, Hokah, Brownsville,
and French Island.

This will likely affect those outdoors at Country Boom.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4371 9092 4363 9109 4372 9154 4385 9138
      4385 9128 4387 9131 4389 9132 4391 9130
      4392 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 233DEG 24KT 4374 9143 4364 9114

Baumgardt