Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
240 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Late Afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Ready for relief from the heat? We can see it not that far away, in
the wake of a cold front currently draped from the western U.P of
Michigan down through northwest Iowa as of early afternoon, though
in spots "augmented" by remnants of outflow from earlier upstream
convection. That boundary is the main focus for convective chances
through tonight, combined with added forcing from a stronger upper
wave working east out of Wyoming at the moment and expected to lift
just to our west on Sunday. Plenty of heat and humidity in place
ahead of that cold front right now, with the current Heat Advisory
for western areas and Excessive Heat Warnings farther east working
out quite well. That heat/humidity is also contributing to 2500-
3500+ J/kg MLCAPE, though held back for the moment by lingering low
level inhibition per current satellite trends and forecast soundings.

Things should change roughly 20-21Z with persistent hints we'll
erode the remaining cap. Overall shear honestly isn't terribly
great, with recent RAP runs backing away even more from 0-3km shear,
only showing around 20-25 knots and limited deeper layer shear.
However, with modest mid level lapse rates, the noted degree of
instability, and impressive DCAPE profiles of 1500+ J/kg, still
think we're in line to see at least a handful of stronger line
segments with a good wind threat. Despite overall storm motion to
the north/northeast, get the feeling that outflow will help
propagate storms farther east a bit quicker than earlier expected,
so will have to watch near-term trends as any "stalling" will
result in training convection and possible flooding concerns.

Do have some concerns for additional convection developing this
evening and tonight on the nose of a strong low level jet/moisture
transport signal pointed into northeast Iowa and southern
Minnesota ahead of the above-mentioned approaching upper wave.
Exactly where and how widespread additional convection becomes
remains in question, but have "upped" our messaging in that
fashion given PWAT values around 2 inches or better and warm cloud
depths pushing 4km or better (great heavy rain indicators). At
the moment, confidence honestly still not high enough to warrant
any time of Flash Flood Watch given the remaining uncertainties
about how widespread any flood threat would be, but will watch
trends this evening closely.

The upper wave should lift north of the area by Sunday afternoon,
swinging a cold front through the area. 12Z guidance looking just a
touch slower getting that boundary out of our eastern areas, so will
have to watch that we don't end up with a sneaky stronger storm or
two given much more robust low and deep layer shear. That risk is
certainly much higher just east of our area into eastern Wisconsin,
with the bigger story being a return to notably cooler conditions
(though still quite a bit humid) with added clouds and occasional
showers.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Most of the rain should be out of the area by Sunday night, but
could see a few lingering showers in far eastern portions of the
forecast area. Otherwise, models remain in good agreement regarding
the general pattern through the work week with upper level ridging
working back into the area and various weak shortwave troughs
bringing precip chances. Unfortunately, very little model agreement
on timing and placement of these shortwaves, so confidence in
precipitation forecast for the work week is rather low, though given
weak nature of the shortwaves, not expecting any periods of
widespread rain. Looking at temperatures, we'll be heating back up
as the ridging builds in. At this point, 925 mb temperatures look to
be the warmest on Wednesday (around 25-27 C), so could see highs
back into the 90s in many spots, pending clouds and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

VFR at the moment, but we'll be awaiting showers and storms to
develop later this afternoon. Based on current expectations,
storms should develop just west or very near RST roughly 21-22Z
and then spread east toward LSE by 00Z. Any storms could produce
strong wind gusts to 40 knots or perhaps even higher for a brief
period, along with IFR conditions in very heavy rainfall rates of
2-3 inches per hour. Confidence in what happens after the initial
round of storms for late evening and much of tonight is on the
lower side, but it's possible that most areas remain dry and VFR
until late tonight as low pressure approaches, which should
provide another shot at some showers and maybe a few storms,
though nothing like what's expected this afternoon. Things improve
from west to east on Sunday as cooler air somewhat drier air
arrive.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Watching convective trends the next handful of hours with slower
storm motions anticipated as low level shear vectors support some
potential training of storms out ahead of a slow-moving cold
front. Confidence still not high enough to warrant a Flash Flood
Watch just yet, but can't rule out some localized flash flooding
where/if any storms train over the same areas. The atmosphere is
quite juicy, and rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour or even
more are possible with any storms. Have maintained the ESF and web
graphics to highlight the rain potential and will watch near-term
trends closely into the evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ017-029-032-033.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ034-
     041>044-053>055-061.

MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ079-086>088-094-
     095.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ096.

IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ008-009-018-019.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ010-
     011-029-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lawrence
LONG TERM...Lawrence
AVIATION...Lawrence
HYDROLOGY...Lawrence

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
544 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

IAZ010-011-029-030-MNZ096-WIZ034-041>044-053>055-061-011100-
Winneshiek-Allamakee-Fayette-Clayton-Houston-Jackson-La Crosse-
Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
544 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa...southeast Minnesota...central Wisconsin...southwest
Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect through 7 pm. Heat
indices will top out between 100 and 110 this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to move into the area west of the
Mississippi River by the middle of the afternoon and spread east
across the area through the evening. Some of these storms could be
severe between 3 and 10 pm with damaging winds, heavy rains
causing some flash flooding and possibly some large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

More thunderstorms will be possible Sunday but severe weather is
not expected.

There will be on and off storm chances Tuesday through Friday. It
is too early to determine if there is a severe threat with this
activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Some spotter groups may be needed late this afternoon into the
evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ079-086>088-094-095-WIZ017-029-032-033-
011100-
Mitchell-Howard-Floyd-Chickasaw-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-
Mower-Fillmore-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-
544 AM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...central Wisconsin...
north central Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 pm. Heat indices will
top out between 95 and 105 this afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to move into the area west of the
Mississippi River by the middle of the afternoon and spread east
across the area through the evening. Some of these storms could be
severe between 3 and 10 pm with damaging winds, heavy rains
causing some flash flooding and possibly some large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

More thunderstorms will be possible Sunday but severe weather is
not expected.

There will be on and off storm chances Tuesday through Friday. It
is too early to determine if there is a severe threat with this
activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Some spotter groups may be needed late this afternoon into the
evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

04/DAS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
529 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S BLACK RIVER FALLS   44.26N 90.85W
06/30/2018  M53 MPH          JACKSON            WI   AWOS

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             2 NW SPARTA             43.97N 90.84W
06/30/2018  M0.50 INCH       MONROE             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LAWRENCE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
544 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

WIZ017-029-010045-
Taylor-Clark-
Including the cities of Medford and Neillsville
544 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

...Storms This Evening In North-Central Wisconsin...

At 540 PM CDT, radar indicated scattered storms in north-central
Wisconsin.

Stronger storms are possible producing wind gusts to 50 mph and
penny sized hail.

There is a small possibility of severe storms with damaging winds.
Warnings would be issued for those by the National Weather
Service if needed.

The storms will shift east by 8 pm. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is in effect.

Baumgardt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
546 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOLDIERS GROVE          43.39N 90.77W
06/30/2018                   CRAWFORD           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

SHEA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
548 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

IAZ008-009-018-019-MNZ086-087-094-302345-
Floyd-Chickasaw-Howard-Mitchell-Olmsted-Dodge-Mower-
548 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2018

...MORE STRONG STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA...

At 544 PM CDT, radar indicated another round of strong thunderstorms
located along a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Owatonna to
8 miles south of Rice Lake. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Through 7 pm, locations impacted include...
Rochester, Austin, Charles City, Osage, Dodge Center, Mantorville,
Kasson, Byron, Nashua, Hayfield, Oronoco, Grand Meadow, St. Ansgar,
and Rockford.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
the area. It is possible these storms could strengthen over the
next hour.

LAT...LON 4420 9304 4419 9252 4291 9254 4291 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 263DEG 39KT 4401 9335 4327 9344

Lawrence