Special Weather Statement, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
648 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Fun little "surprise" earlier today in the form of convection
spreading a few counties farther south than expected at this time
yesterday. We can thank robust outflow interacting with weak low
level jet forcing/moisture transport for the maintenance of
convection farther south, with that outflow having overtaken the
entire CWA as of midday, resulting in pronounced CIN given a
shallow cool pool in place. Earlier clouds are now history,
leaving plenty of sunshine and rapid warming, with deep mixing
into a slightly more moist airmass producing a bit higher humidity
levels this afternoon compared to yesterday, though we remain
shy of Heat Advisory criteria despite actual air temps well into
the 90s. Simply put...it's just plain hot out there!

For the remainder of the afternoon and evening, will be watching
an axis of convergence out toward the I-35 corridor where earlier
outflow (southeast winds) are meeting up with background
southerly flow. Actually starting to see some convection fire out
that way as of 2 pm, with plenty of juice to deliver 2500-3000
J/kg MLCAPE but in the presence of very weak shear, suggesting
that storms that continue to percolate this afternoon and evening
will be pulse in nature and highly outflow-dominated. Inverted-V
look to forecast soundings suggests some stronger wind gusts but
per instability trends, appears most of the activity may well
skirt right around our CWA border, maybe just clipping northwest
and northern counties.  Can't totally rule out a rogue severe
storm or two in that environment, with likely a tendency for any
storms to propagate slowly east/northeast and perhaps re-congeal
into another axis of weaker convergence pegged near/north of I-94
per recent guidance trends this evening. Unfortunately, weak
background forcing mechanisms make this a low confidence forecast.

Tuesday afternoon's convective forecast isn't much higher
confidence, though some better chances should arrive during the
afternoon across western areas with hints of slightly better upper
forcing ahead of a stronger shortwave lifting through eastern
South Dakota. Low/mid level shear even on Tuesday remains fairly
week, with any better severe weather risk situated farther west
and closer to the better forcing. Also can't rule out a pop-up
shower or storm farther east toward the Mississippi River, with
even some hints that convection may propagate northward from
northern Illinois during the afternoon into southern areas. Looks
a little cooler temperature-wise with 925mb temps "cooling" to
25-28C on a low level gusty southeast flow, but still envision a
bunch of lower 90s across the board.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Tuesday night into Thursday: upper level ridge breaks down...as
pieces of energy eject out of upper level trough over the Rocky
Mountains into the Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes Region. With
vertical motion/moisture convergence across the much of the
forecast area in associated with each piece of energy moving over
the region. This will increase shower and thunderstorm chances
across much of the forecast area from Tuesday night into
Wednesday. As the upper level trough tracks into the Great Lakes
Region...impulses wrap around the upper level trough and into the
forecast area...producing scattered showers and thunderstorms
mainly east of the Mississippi River Thursday. At this
time...severe potential for Wednesday looks to be low...based on
ongoing convection and clouds from upstream convection will limit
instability across the forecast area. Cooler air filters into the
region Wednesday into Thursday...with high temperatures cooling
into the upper 70s to middle 80s.

Main forecast concerns from Thursday night into Monday are
precipitation chances Saturday into Sunday. The 28.12z GFS/GEM/ECMWF
are in decent agreement in building shortwave ridge into the Upper
Great Lakes Region Thursday night into Friday...then break down
ridge and move shortwave trough into the the Great Lakes Region
Saturday into Sunday. The 28.12z deterministic begin to diverge on
strength of upper level trough over the Great Lakes Region and the
upper level ridge building into the Northern Plains States Sunday
into Monday. This will have impacts on timing of shower/thunderstorm
chances Saturday into Sunday...possibly Monday. Temperatures Friday
through Monday will be cooler with highs mainly in 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Narrow line of strong (isolated severe) storms between KAEL and
KAUM will continue to drift northward this evening. Should stay
west of KRST, but will monitor closely and amend if necessary.
Additional showers/storms possible Tuesday afternoon, but not
enough confidence to include in 00Z TAFs. In general, VFR
conditions will be the rule at TAF airfields through the period
with mainly periods of cirrus. Winds will be light from the
south-southeast.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lawrence
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...Rogers

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
545 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-291100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
545 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heat indices around 100 are expected this afternoon.

Thunderstorms will be found this morning over portions of western
and central Wisconsin. More thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening generally along and north of Interstate 90.
Lightning and gusty winds will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There will be periodic chances for thunderstorms from Tuesday
through Thursday evening and again Saturday night. The main
threats will be lightning and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

No action is needed.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

04/Boyne

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
701 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

MNZ094-290045-
Mower-
701 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MOWER
COUNTY...

At 700 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Grand Meadow,
or 17 miles east of Austin, moving north at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Meadow, Le Roy, Adams, Racine, Dexter, Elkton, Sargeant,
Taopi, Renova, Lake Louise State Park, and Hamilton.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4385 9269 4383 9269 4383 9245 4364 9245
      4350 9252 4350 9276 4385 9280
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 190DEG 20KT 4365 9263

Hollan

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