Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS La Crosse, WI

279 
WGUS63 KARX 010235
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
935 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

...Heavy Rain Possible Overnight into Saturday Morning...

.Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
overnight and continue into Saturday morning, particularly across
northeast Iowa into far southwest Wisconsin. Heavy rainfall could
lead to localized flash flooding, especially with the wet ground 
and already high water levels in some areas. At this time, the
exact placement of the heaviest rainfall overnight remains in
question, and it is possible that the heaviest rains end up
occurring farther south of the area.

IAZ011-030-WIZ053>055-061-011200-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0004.180901T0300Z-180902T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allamakee-Clayton-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
Including the cities of Waukon, Elkader, Viroqua, 
Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, and Platteville
935 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, including 
  the following areas, in northeast Iowa, Allamakee and Clayton. 
  In southwest Wisconsin, Crawford, Grant, Richland, and Vernon. 

* Through Saturday evening

* Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible

* Ponding of water and eventual flooding are possible. Rivers and
  creeks will also be on the rise where heavy rain falls. In
  addition, there may be some mud slides in the bluff areas if
  enough rain occurs.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Lawrence

238 
WGUS63 KARX 010905
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
405 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Periods of Storms With Heavy Rain This Morning...

.Showers and thunderstorms this morning will bring heavy rain to
the area. This could lead to localized to potentially widespread flash
flooding, especially with the wet ground and already high water 
levels at some locations. 

The area will likely see a break from the rain later this
afternoon, but more showers and storms look to return overnight, 
again carrying a heavy rain threat and potential for flooding.

IAZ011-030-WIZ053>055-061-011715-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-180902T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allamakee-Clayton-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
Including the cities of Waukon, Elkader, Viroqua, 
Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, and Platteville
405 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, including 
  the following areas, in northeast Iowa, Allamakee and Clayton. 
  In southwest Wisconsin, Crawford, Grant, Richland, and Vernon. 

* Through this evening

* Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible

* Ponding of water and eventual flooding are possible. Rivers 
  and creeks will also be on the rise where heavy rain falls. In 
  addition, there may be some mud slides in the bluff areas if 
  enough rain occurs. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Rieck

705 
WGUS63 KARX 011542
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1042 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Temporary Break From The Heavy Rain Threat...

.The remaining showers and storms have been on a diminishing trend
this morning and this will continue into the afternoon. Additional
rainfall today looks to be rather light and less than a half inch.

The break from the heavy rain threat looks to be temporary though
with additional showers and storms expected tonight into Sunday
morning. There is still some uncertainty on the location of where
the heaviest rains will fall and adjustments to the flash flood
watch will likely be needed later today.

IAZ011-030-WIZ053>055-061-012345-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-180902T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allamakee-Clayton-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
Including the cities of Waukon, Elkader, Viroqua, 
Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, and Platteville
1042 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, including 
  the following areas, in northeast Iowa, Allamakee and Clayton. 
  In southwest Wisconsin, Crawford, Grant, Richland, and Vernon. 

* Until 7 PM CDT this evening

* Additional rainfall today will be a half inch or less. However,
  there is the potential for additional heavy rains overnight into
  Sunday morning.

* Ponding of water and eventual flooding are possible. Rivers 
  and creeks will also be on the rise where heavy rain falls. In 
  addition, there may be some mud slides in the bluff areas if 
  enough rain occurs. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should
Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

04

429 
WGUS63 KARX 011919
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
219 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...Heavy Rain Threat Has Temporarily Ended...

.The threat for heavy rain has temporarily come to an end across
the area. The rest of the afternoon and much of the evening now
looks to be dry. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
to occur overnight and into Sunday, but at this time, rainfall
amounts look to be an inch or less. This should not be enough to
produce any new flooding or aggravate the ongoing flooding.

IAZ011-030-WIZ053>055-061-012030-
/O.CAN.KARX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-180902T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allamakee-Clayton-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
Including the cities of Waukon, Elkader, Viroqua, 
Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, and Platteville
219 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast Iowa and
southwest Wisconsin has been cancelled. Additional heavy rain that
could produce new flooding or aggravate the ongoing flooding is
not expected to occur tonight or Sunday. The potential does exist
for more heavy rain into next week with renewed concerns for
flooding.

$$

04

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
238 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Still lots of unknowns in the forecast but short range models are
starting to give a somewhat clearer picture of what is expected to
occur. Early this afternoon there was a cold front from extreme
northwest Minnesota into North Dakota. A stationary front was
parked across central Missouri into northern Kansas. While both of
these features will be a player for the area, the front over
Missouri is expected to be more relevant as it lifts back north as
a warm front.

Water vapor satellite showing a weak short wave trough embedded in
the mean long wave trough over eastern Montana. This wave will
push east tonight and stay to the north while pushing the cold
front southeast across Minnesota. Showers and storms already
starting to develop across northwest Minnesota ahead of this
system and these will drop southeast toward the area this evening.
This activity is not expected to be near the area until about the
middle of the evening with the best chances expected to be across
the north closer to the short wave trough.

By late this evening and into the overnight, the front across
Missouri will start to lift back to the north into Iowa. However,
not sure how far north it will make it as it is currently be held
back by ongoing convection just north of it. It may not move much
until the low level jet kicks in late this evening. If the front
can get back into southern or central Iowa, a round of showers and
storms will develop along and north of it as the low level jet
runs into the boundary. There is also a short wave trough coming
across Nebraska that will provide additional forcing for the
showers and storms to develop. Looking at several runs of the RAP
and the 31.12Z NAM, the mid level frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb
layer looks to be focused right into the southern sections of the
forecast area. Expecting to see rapid growth of showers and storms
north of this boundary during the late evening into the early
overnight with this activity then persisting into Saturday morning
before diminishing as the low level jet veers off to the east and
weakens. The main threat from this activity will be the heavy
rain/flooding potential, see the hydrology section below for more
details. Some potential for large hail and damaging winds early in
the storm cycle until a transition over to mainly heavy rain
occurs overnight. The ML CAPE pool looks to primarily stay along
and west of the Mississippi River and into southwest Wisconsin and
looks to be in the 1000-2000 J/Kg range. The shear looks to
primarily be in the 0-3 km layer and on the order of 20 to 25
knots. The 0-1 km shear will increase as the low level jet forms
develops but this doesn't look to come into play as the storms
should be elevated above this layer north of the boundary. This
will leave some large hail and damaging winds then as the main
threats outside of the heavy rain.

The boundary will still be hanging around the area through
Saturday night with the continued threat of showers and storms
across the southern sections of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

An active period is expected with a continued heavy rain threat
through much of the week. A large mid/upper ridge will remain
anchored across the Mid-Atlantic region with west to southwest flow
aloft upstream over the Midwest. Various embedded shortwaves will
translate through the flow to produce occasional rounds of showers
and storms. The atmosphere will remain conducive to heavy rainfall
with precipitable water values exceeding 2.0 inches at times,
corresponding to +2 to 3 standard anomalies via the NAEFS. Mesoscale
details concerning surface boundary/upper wave placement and
consequently convective focus are uncertain, especially given the
messy surface pattern and potential contamination from storm
outflow. However, the overall pattern certainly suggests a heavy
rain/flood threat will continue during this time. Not expecting much
change in airmass through the week, with highs in the 70s to low
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Interesting scenario setting up across the area for tonight and
how this will impact the airports is still uncertain. Looking at a
short wave trough that will move across northern Minnesota tonight
that will push a cold front toward the area. Showers and storms
along this front will start to approach KRST during the evening
but not sure how much of this activity will impact the airport
before the low level jet kicks in and causes more widespread
convection to form north of a boundary that will be moving north
into Iowa. The bulk of this convection should stay to the south of
both airports but be close enough to produce at least a period of
thunder overnight and have include a tempo period for both
airports when those chances are the highest. MVFR/IFR conditions
will be possible with this convection. Plenty of low level
moisture will be in place behind this convection for MVFR ceilings
at both airports late tonight into Saturday morning. Could be some
IFR ceilings as well, but confidence is not high enough to include
at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

Will be issuing a flash flood watch for southwest Wisconsin into
northeast Iowa for tonight into Saturday. As noted above, as the
boundary lifts back north, rapid development of showers and storms
expected late this evening as the low level jet impinges on this
boundary. The precipitable water values will increase to around 2
inches near the boundary with warm cloud depths of 4 to 4.5 km.
Expecting the storms to be very efficient rain producers and
included a band of close to two inches of rainfall centered
roughly along the Wisconsin River in southwest Wisconsin and
expecting that localized amounts will be higher than this. Some of
this rain will fall on areas that are already dealing with
saturated ground and flooding from the rain earlier in the week
and cannot take much more water. For northeast Iowa into Grant
County, the ground is not as saturated but terrain is a concern
and this area known for mud slides with heavy rain. For now, will
include the areas where confidence is highest for a flash flooding
threat but the location of the boundary will have to be closely
monitored through the evening for possible adjustments to the
watch area.

Flooding continues along the Kickapoo River, but for the time
being, levels are going down. For more details see the latest
flood statement.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     evening for WIZ053>055-061.

MN...None.
IA...Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Saturday
     evening for IAZ011-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
257 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041>044-012000-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Wabasha-Dodge-
Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-
257 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Minnesota...central Wisconsin...
north central Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
evening and continue into the overnight hours, especially along
and south of I-90. During the evening some of the storms could
become severe, producing damaging wind and large hail. Frequent
lightning and heavy rain will be possible with all of the storms.
Depending on where it falls, heavy rainfall could lead to
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic rounds of storms are expected through next week. Additional
heavy rain is likely, which could result in more widespread
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of hail, wind damage, and rainfall amounts are
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ011-030-WIZ053>055-061-012000-
Allamakee-Clayton-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
257 PM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Iowa
and southwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
evening and continue into the overnight hours. During the evening
some of the storms could become severe, producing damaging wind
and large hail. Frequent lightning and heavy rain will be possible
with all of the storms. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding, especially with the wet ground and already high
water levels. A flood watch is in effect through Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periodic rounds of storms are expected through next week. Additional
heavy rain is likely, which could result in more widespread flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of hail, wind damage, and rainfall amounts are appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

DMD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
932 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

MNZ079-086>088-095-096-311530-
Wabasha-Olmsted-Dodge-Fillmore-Winona-Houston-
932 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WINONA...OLMSTED...SOUTHEASTERN
WABASHA...NORTHERN HOUSTON...EAST CENTRAL DODGE AND NORTHERN
FILLMORE COUNTIES...

At 927 AM CDT, an area of thunderstorms extended from near Rochester
to Saratoga, moving east at 25 mph.

Lightning, nickel size hail, and brief downpours are possible with
these storms.

Take shelter indoors if these storms approach your location.

LAT...LON 4410 9291 4421 9188 4397 9147 4379 9127
      4361 9127 4372 9245 4383 9245 4383 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1427Z 270DEG 21KT 4394 9198

DD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1011 AM CDT FRI AUG 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     HAIL             3 S KASSON              43.99N 92.75W
08/31/2018  E0.75 INCH       DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA BROADCAST MEDIA TWITTER.

&&