Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1142 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Winter storm still on track for today and tonight, but with some
adjustments to snow/ice amounts. 22.08Z analysis shows the surface
low near Kansas City with an expansive swath of warm advective
precipitation across IA into southern WI and the deformation snow
band taking shape across central NE into southeast SD and
southwest MN. The surface low will lift northeastward through the
day, nearing the IL/WI border by 06Z tonight, bringing with it
heavy snow and wintry mix to much of the forecast area.

Early this morning, surface temperatures are still quite warm,
ranging from 35 to 40 degrees. This will keep p-type as rain
through early morning. Then, expect a transition to snow or a
wintry mix across southeast MN into north central WI between
12-16Z. Temperatures may still be at or slightly above freezing in
these areas, but higher precipitation rates should induce dynamic
cooling and a change over to mostly snow. Areas to the south and
east will continue to see mostly rain through the morning.

P-type is tricky this afternoon as several short-range models
show a dry slot with loss of cloud ice. If this occurs, this will
cut into snow amounts and potentially result in more ice
depending on surface temperatures. In general, the northwest
forecast area should continue to see snow, but may mix at times
with rain or freezing rain. Also more of wintry mix farther east
roughly along a line from Osage to La Crosse to Wisconsin Rapids
is expected. Rain will continue across portions of northeast IA
into southern WI through the afternoon. The wintry mix will
finally move into the southeast forecast area this evening with an
eventual change over to all snow later tonight for all areas.

Given the dynamic nature of the system, will maintain a slight
chance for thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon for much of
the area. Expect 25-35 kts in the shallow mixed boundary layer
through the day, and this will lead to areas of blowing/drifting
snow, especially across southeast MN. Think lower wind speeds and
the wet/heavy nature of the snow will preclude whiteout/blizzard
conditions, but visibility reductions to 1 mile or less in heavy
snow are expected at times.

All said, snow amounts have been reduced into the 6-10 inch range,
but this may still be too high depending on how quickly the
atmospheric column cools. This will have to be monitored closely
through the day. For sure, there will still be a very sharp cut-
off in amounts to the south and east with only an inch or two in
the transition zone. Not far fetched to suggest the northern
portions of some counties may see warning criteria snow, while the
southern portions see little accumulation. With temperatures
looking warmer in the transition zone, icing should be limited
from a glaze up to a tenth of an inch. Will continue all Winter
Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories with no change at this
time, but adjustments may be needed later if higher snow amounts
don't materialize.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Dry and quiet Tuesday through the weekend. The previously watched
system for Friday into the weekend now looks to mature east of the
forecast area. Cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will warm
dramatically to end the week with highs by Friday well into the
40s. A slight cool down is expected for next weekend, but still
near seasonable temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

VLIFR conditions, in heavy snow and blowing snow, will continue
through much of the afternoon today at KRST then conditions should
improve to IFR this evening. Plan on IFR conditions in low stratus
and rain/drizzle at KLSE into this evening. Conditions should then
gradually improve to MVFR after sunrise Tuesday morning.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ017-029-
     032>034.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ041-
     042.

MN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ079-
     086>088-094-095.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ096.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     IAZ008>010.

&&

SHORT TERM...Rogers
LONG TERM...Rogers
AVIATION...Wetenkamp

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
405 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

MNZ079-086>088-094-095-WIZ017-029-032>034-231015-
Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-
405 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota through north-central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect through this evening. A
wintry mix will transition to mainly snow by mid to late morning
and continue into this evening. Snow totals of 6 to 10 inches are
possible. There will be a sharp cut off in snow amounts on the
southeast edge of the heaviest snow band. Icing totals up to 1/10
of an inch are expected. Some blowing and drifting snow is also
expected across portions of southeast Minnesota. The evening
commute, and perhaps the morning commute for some, will be
impacted with hazardous to dangerous travel. Isolated
thunderstorms are also possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of snow and ice today and tonight would be greatly
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ008>010-MNZ096-WIZ041-042-231015-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Houston-La Crosse-Monroe-
405 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions southeast
Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this evening.
Periods of rain and a wintry mix are expected. Snow and sleet
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible, with up to 1/0 inch
of ice. Travel may be difficult at times. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of snow and icing today and tonight would be greatly
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

IAZ011-018-019-029-030-WIZ043-044-053>055-061-231015-
Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Clayton-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-
Crawford-Richland-Grant-
405 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Mainly rain is expected this morning into this afternoon, then
mix with or change to snow late this afternoon into the evening.
At this time snow and sleet amounts of less than 1 inch are
possible along with up to 1/10 of an inch of ice, with the higher
amounts near Interstate 90. Continue to monitor forecasts closely
as snow and ice accumulations may change. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of any snow or icing today and tonight would be
appreciated.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

No webinar is scheduled.

RRS/Rogers

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
137 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     SNOW             3 ESE DOUGLAS           44.09N 92.51W
01/22/2018  M7.3 INCH        OLMSTED            MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

0133 PM     SNOW             CLAREMONT               44.04N 93.00W
01/22/2018  E8.5 INCH        DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
143 PM CST MON JAN 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     SNOW             KASSON                  44.03N 92.75W
01/22/2018  E6.5 INCH        DODGE              MN   PUBLIC

0140 PM     SNOW             1 NE WABASHA            44.38N 92.03W
01/22/2018  E3.5 INCH        WABASHA            MN   AMATEUR RADIO

0139 PM     SNOW             3 NW WABASHA            44.40N 92.08W
01/22/2018  M5.7 INCH        WABASHA            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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