Winter Weather Advisory 21, NWS Gaylord, MI

261 
WWUS43 KAPX 160958
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
558 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018


MIZ016>019-021>024-162200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Charlevoix, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, and Alpena
558 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Snow will be heavy at times this morning,
  especially in Presque Isle and Alpena Counties. Freezing rain
  and freezing drizzle will mix in early this morning. Additional
  snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Expect significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-162200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
558 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Snow will be heavy at times, especially this 
  morning. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Expect significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025>027-162200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.180416T1300Z-180417T0900Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
and Kalkaska
558 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...System and lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Leelanau County.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. In 
  addition, some reductions to visibility are likely. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph will cause patchy blowing and 
  drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow means lake effect
snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.
Use caution when traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

JZ

642 
WWUS43 KAPX 161222
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
822 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

MIZ016>019-021>024-162030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Charlevoix, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, and Alpena
822 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Snow will be heavy at times this morning.
  Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Expect significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-162030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
822 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Snow will be heavy at times, especially this
  morning. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are 
  expected.

* WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Expect significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ028>030-035-036-161800-
/O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.180416T1300Z-180416T1800Z/
Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Including the cities of Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, West Branch, 
and Tawas City
822 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total wet snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Crawford, Oscoda, Alcona, Ogemaw and Iosco Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect 
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for wet snow means periods of wet snow
will cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025>027-162030-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.180416T1300Z-180417T0900Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
and Kalkaska
822 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...System and Lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. In 
  addition, some reductions to visibility are likely. Winds 
  gusting as high as 30 mph will cause patchy blowing and 
  drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow means lake effect
snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.
Use caution when traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

539 
WWUS43 KAPX 161743
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
143 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018



MIZ028>030-035-036-161845-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180416T1800Z/
Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Including the cities of Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, West Branch, 
and Tawas City
143 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Lingering light snow showers will continue through tonight, with
only minimal additional accumulation expected.

$$

MIZ016>019-021>024-170000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Charlevoix, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, and Alpena
143 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Expect significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ008-015-170000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
143 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are
  expected.

* WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Expect significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ020-025>027-170145-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180417T0900Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
and Kalkaska
143 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 
  to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. In 
  addition, some reductions to visibility are likely. Winds 
  gusting as high as 30 mph will cause patchy blowing and 
  drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow means lake effect
snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.
Use caution when traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

254 
WWUS43 KAPX 161916
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
316 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

MIZ008-015-170000-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
316 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow. Additional snow accumulations of up
  to two inches are expected by early this evening.

* WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the evening commute. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow means lake effect
snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.
Use caution when traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ019-021-022-170545-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180417T0900Z/
Charlevoix-Antrim-Otsego-
Including the cities of Charlevoix, Mancelona, and Gaylord
316 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 
  to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Charlevoix, Antrim and Otsego Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect 
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow means lake effect
snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.
Use caution when traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-023-024-162030-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-180417T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Montmorency-Alpena-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Atlanta, and Alpena
316 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Lingering light snow showers through tonight with only minimal
additional accumulation expected.

$$

MIZ020-025>027-170545-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180417T0900Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
and Kalkaska
316 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 
  to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. In 
  addition, some reductions to visibility are likely. Winds 
  gusting as high as 30 mph will cause patchy blowing and 
  drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow means lake effect
snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.
Use caution when traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

408 
WWUS43 KAPX 162357
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
757 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

MIZ008-015-170300-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180417T0300Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
757 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow. Additional snow accumulations of up
  to two inches are expected by late this evening.

* WHERE...Chippewa and Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the evening commute. Expect reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow means lake effect
snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.
Use caution when traveling.

&&

$$

MIZ019>022-025>027-170800-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180417T0900Z/
Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Charlevoix, Northport, Mancelona, 
Gaylord, Frankfort, Traverse City, and Kalkaska
757 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 
  to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Charlevoix 
  Antrim and Otsego Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roads will remain very slippery. In 
  addition, some reductions to visibility are likely. Winds 
  gusting as high as 30 mph will cause patchy blowing and drifting
  snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow means lake effect
snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.
Use caution when traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

712 
WWUS43 KAPX 170303
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1103 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

MIZ008-015-170415-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180417T0300Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
1103 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Snow will continue to slowly taper off overnight. Additional
accumulations are expected to be under an inch. Some area roadways
will remain snow covered and slippery. 

$$

MIZ019>022-025>027-170900-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180417T0900Z/
Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Charlevoix, Northport, Mancelona, 
Gaylord, Frankfort, Traverse City, and Kalkaska
1103 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake enhanced snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to
  2 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Charlevoix 
  Antrim and Otsego Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Roads will remain very slippery. In 
  addition, some reductions to visibility are likely. Winds 
  gusting as high as 30 mph will cause patchy blowing and 
  drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect snow means lake effect
snow is forecast that will make travel difficult in some areas.
Use caution when traveling.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

788 
WWUS43 KAPX 170859
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
459 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018


MIZ019>022-025>027-171000-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-180417T0900Z/
Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Charlevoix, Northport, Mancelona, 
Gaylord, Frankfort, Traverse City, and Kalkaska
459 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Snow will diminish this morning, with additional accumulations of
an inch or less.

Note that many area roads remain covered in snow and ice.
Travelers will need to use extra caution.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
337 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Winter not done yet...

Triple-point low over western VA is now the dominant surface low. A
sharp inverted trof extends up toward the southern tip of Lk Huron,
and a weak surface wave is present near Lapeer MI. High pressure is
anchored over ne Canada. A closed 500mb low will pass just south of
lower MI today. However, a shortwave will pinwheel back into the
northern lakes as this happens, and this will close off directly
over our heads this evening. This will help maintain an easterly
feed of moisture into the region, and give us some dynamics to act
on that moisture. In addition, 850mb temps of -13/-14C may allow a
lake response to develop. The end result is another pretty typical
mid-winter forecast.

Plume of deep moisture, now just grazing parts of ne lower and
eastern upper MI, will gradually get drawn back westward this
morning. Radar has already lit up substantially since midnight
with convective echoes over central/eastern areas. Expect precip
rates to increase again toward daybreak for APN/Rogers and on up
into far eastern upper MI. 500mb heights will sharply lower this
morning, and a weak surface low reflection will lift ne-ward
across Lk Huron. In response, snowfall rates in the areas
mentioned above will be legit heavy at times in the daylight
morning hours. Expect 2-4" of accums this morning/midday, along
and north of a CVX-GLR-Black River line.

This afternoon, a subtle mid-level dry slot will form in ne portions
of the forecast area, as a closed 500mb circulation emerges over the
Straits area. A rain/snow mix will enter the equation from Gladwin
to Harrisville and points south. Meanwhile, moisture will wrap back
into nw lower MI, along with the colder 850mb temps mentioned above.
Forcing is less than this morning, but it's getting cold enough for
Lake MI to help out. The above plays out thru tonight, though the
850mb thermal trof does start to ease southward late in the
overnight. Inversion heights settle in at 800mb, 5.0-5.5k ft. NW to
borderline WNW flow, when combined with lingering ice cover over the
ne tip of Lake MI, will focus better lake enhanced snow from midday
today into tonight in the Gd Trav Bay region. Afternoon accums of 1-
2" in nw lower, far n central lower, and eastern upper. That segues
to 2-4" tonight in much of nw lower MI, with lesser amounts
elsewhere.

Ongoing winter storm warnings are fine, except for Leelanau, which
won't get caught up in the early morning activity very much. They do
get involved by late morning and beyond as lake enhancement kicks
in. Will cancel the Leelanau warning, but will put them, Benzie, Gd
Traverse, and Kalkaska in an advisory that kicks in later this
morning and goes thru late tonight.

Lots of clouds. Max temps low-mid 30s. Min temps mid-upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Moderating Temperatures...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal as the snow diminishes and
we get some light rain.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The models show the lake effect snow
should diminish as the 850 mb temperatures warm t around -6c or so
by 00z/Wed, and that the 700-500 mb layer rh begins to dry out
allowing for some <50% RH air in the layer. This leads to a
temporary reprieve of the last few days, with Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning being dry. However, an Alberta clipper system
drops through the Northern Plains and brings some WAA snow and
rain/freezing rain Wednesday afternoon and into Wednesday night. The
sfc low moves into New England by 12z/Thu and the dry air in the 700-
500 mb layer returns into the Upper Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Not sure I buy the blends idea of
freezing rain for Wednesday night. Maybe we get patchy drizzle and
temperatures cool to just below freezing so that we get some
freezing drizzle. The ECMWF soundings for Wednesday night are pretty
dry and the QPF is very low. The NAM and the GFS both really push
some sort of rain/drizzle with the sfc temperatures around 32F. so
will have to watch this. The impacts at most would be a slippery
morning commute on Thursday, but nothing that would raise a
headline. I'm willing to go out on a limb and side with the ECMWF of
little to nothing for the Wednesday night. We'll have to see how
strong the Hudson Bay high is and whether it can push some low level
dry air to keep the warm front from producing much.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Becoming precip-free with Moderating Temperatures...

Extended (Thursday through Sunday)...The models dry things out
through the weekend, as High pressure builds into the Upper Great
Lakes at the sfc and aloft. Lots of dry air pushes into the region
as a result and the 500 mb heights begin to build. This pushes our
temperatures up from the lower 40s on Thursday to the lower 50s on
Sunday. It would be surprising if, with the sunshine that one would
expect with this pattern that we could get back to the normal high
temperatures for this time of year which are the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Large area of low pressure will continue to slowly work eastward
through the Great Lakes over the next 24 to 36 hours. Just
scattered precipitation at MBL/TVC this evening, with
precipitation more widespread at APN/PLN.  Still a variety of
precipitation types tonight with light rain, snow, freezing rain
and sleet possible. As colder air wraps in from the northwest late
tonight into Monday, precipitation will transition back toward
all snow. Cigs/Vsbys ranging from IFR to MVFR tonight, with IFR
conditions more likely late tonight into Monday as more widespread
precipitation once again develops across the area. Winds remaining
gusty from the northeast tonight, with the highest gusts gradually
diminishing. Winds will shift to the north/northwest late tonight
into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Blustery ne winds will continue to back to the n and nw, while
remaining gusty. Advisories will likely be extended for a lengthy
period, perhaps into Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 9 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT
     Tuesday for MIZ020-025>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ008-
     015>019-021>024.
LH...GALE WARNING until 6 AM EDT early this morning for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     LSZ321-322.
&&

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...JZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1039 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-170245-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
1039 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A wintry mix of precipitation will continue across parts of northern
Michigan overnight. Gusty winds will continue to produce areas of
blowing and drifting snow. Hazardous driving conditions are likely
in many areas. Please see ongoing winter storm warnings for
additional information.

Gale force winds are expected on portions of northern Lake
Michigan and Huron tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periods of snow, at times heavy, will continue for areas along and
north of M-32 Monday and Monday night. Please see ongoing winter
storm warnings for additional information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snow and ice accumulations...and
any other significant weather to the National Weather Service.
Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

JK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1053 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

MIZ025>036-041-042-160900-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Frankfort, Traverse City, Kalkaska,
Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City,
Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
1053 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...Patchy light snow and freezing drizzle overnight...

Expect patchy light snow and freezing drizzle overnight.
Snow and ice accumulations will be minor. But with temperatures
near the freezing mark, slick travel is possible in some areas.

If traveling across this area overnight, slow down and be prepared
for icy spots on some roadways.

JK