Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Gaylord, MI

455 
WWUS43 KAPX 120233
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
933 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018


MIZ008-015-120345-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181112T0300Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie and St. Ignace
933 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Only light lake effect snow showers are expected for the rest of
tonight.

$$

MIZ020-021-120345-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181112T1000Z/
Leelanau-Antrim-
Including the cities of Northport and Mancelona
933 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Only light lake effect snow showers are expected for the rest of
tonight.

$$

MIZ016-121000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181112T1000Z/
Emmet-
Including the city of Petoskey
933 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Locally heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to
  3 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Emmet County.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. 
  Expect significant reductions in visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ017-019-121000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181112T1000Z/
Cheboygan-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Cheboygan and Charlevoix
933 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are
  expected.

* WHERE...Cheboygan and Charlevoix Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Expect 
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

052 
WWUS43 KAPX 120805
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

MIZ016-120915-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-181112T1000Z/
Emmet-
Including the city of Petoskey
305 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

While lake effect snow showers will continue to impact the area
this morning, any additional accumulations will be minor.
Motorists are urged to slow down and watch for snow covered and
slippery road conditions.

$$

MIZ017-019-120915-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-181112T1000Z/
Cheboygan-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Cheboygan and Charlevoix
305 AM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

While lake effect snow showers will continue to impact the area
this morning, any additional accumulations will be minor.
Motorists are urged to slow down and watch for snow covered and
slippery road conditions.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
301 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

...Lake Snow Showers Through Tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating lake snows for parts
of NW lower Michigan.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon analysis reveals low
amplitude short-wave trough advancing across northern Michigan,
attending surface low is across the U.P./Lake Superior. Main QG-
forcing for ascent ahead of the wave is moving out of the CWA
evidenced by diminishing trend to the larger scale snowfall across
the region. But SW flow enhancement continues off Lake Michigan
into NW lower Michigan of course with the heaviest snows impacting
the Lake Michigan shoreline from Grand Traverse Bay up through
Charlevoix/Emmet and parts of Cheboygan county and eastern upper
Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Ongoing lake enhancement and
accumulations.

QG-forcing for ascent and remaining widespread snowfall ends this
evening. However, low level flow veering more westerly in time
and favorable lake effect parameters will continue to target areas
from Leelanau county up through the tip of the mitt for a good
part of the night. Plan to extend/expand advisories for Emmet/
Charlevoix Cheboygan counties through tonight and I may add
Leelanau and Antrim counties back into the mix for good measure
(with lake banding skirting Leelanau and heavier elements
impacting Antrim county).

Further north, it's been difficult to tell exactly what's
happening today along the Lake Michigan and Huron shoreline. But
have to believe that heavier convective elements are getting into
the southern parts of Chip/Mack counties. Will probably just leave
the advisories up there alone for now. They expire at 03Z which
corresponds well with winds veering more westerly tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating lake effect snow
expected at times, primarily across WNW/NW flow snowbelts.

Pattern Synopsis: Winter-like pattern continues through midweek
across northern Michigan led off by a weak cold front crossing the
forecast area during the day Monday, all while a storm system a
storm system emerges across the southeastern tier of the CONUS and
rides toward the East Coast. A well-defined shortwave will carve
through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday, bringing a reinforcing
shot of cold air before heights aloft slowly begin to rise through
the day Wednesday...at least briefly.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Lake effect snow potential
through the forecast period.

Overall large scale pattern will remain supportive of continued lake
effect snow chances downwind of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior
Monday through at least Tuesday night. Aforementioned cold front
crossing the region during the day Monday along with renewed
troughing overhead as shortwave troughing digs into the region
Monday night-Tuesday will combine to deliver continued cold air
aloft...evident by H8 temps falling from roughly -10 C Monday
morning to -16 C. Plenty of lake induced instability will result as
delta Ts range from 15-20 C; however, as was alluded to by the prior
forecaster, subsidence inversion heights through the period
generally varying from 4-6 kft and moisture limited to sub 800 mb
should limit the overall coverage and intensity of snow showers.
Steering flow varying from WNW to NW should focus the most
persistent snows across the typical areas of northern
Chippewa/northwest Mackinac counties and along and west of I-75
across parts of northwest lower. Tuesday will likely be the day to
feature more robust snow shower activity as synoptic support
increases from the aforementioned shortwave sliding across the
region overhead. In terms of snowfall amounts, generally an inch or
less during the day Monday, and 1-2" in any 12-hour block of time
Monday night through Tuesday night at any given location with the
WNW/NW flow snowbelts.

Lake effect chances will gradually diminish Tuesday night into
Wednesday as heights begin to rise and low-mid level warm air
advection takes over.

Below normal temperatures continue through the period with the
coolest day expected on Tuesday as high temperatures top out in the
mid-upper 20s for most areas...perhaps tagging 30 degrees nearest
the Great Lakes shorelines.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Additional accumulating snow possible
Friday through the remainder of next weekend.

Rather tranquil conditions expected Wednesday night through Thursday
night across northern Michigan; however, a potent clipper system and
attendant cold front is expected to sweep across the region on
Friday. This is expected to lead to more accumulating snow chances
across parts of northern Michigan through the remainder of next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

Area of low pressure is currently moving through the northern
Great Lakes region this afternoon through tonight giving most
locations snow and MVFR conditions. Heavier lake enhanced elements
coming off Lake Michigan will impact the PLN terminal site through
tonight with periods of IFR conditions there.

Snow diminishes for Monday although MVFR conditions will likely
linger.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

Southwest winds have been a little gusty today but largely short
of small craft advisory criteria. Have already trimmed out the
Lake Michigan nearshore zones and the Lake Huron zones will end at
6 pm this evening. Winds gradually veer into the NW tonight
through Monday. But I do not anticipate any marine headlines for
the next few days.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ008-
     015.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Monday for MIZ016-017-
     019>021.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST this evening for LHZ348-349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
310 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-121100-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
310 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Heavier snow showers off the lakes will continue to impact parts
of eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan through tonight.
See ongoing winter weather advisories for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional lake effect snow is expected across northwest lower
and eastern upper Michigan Monday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National
Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.