Alert archive / Michigan / Wind Chill Advisories in 2018

Wind Chill Advisory 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

January 3, 201817 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this wind chill advisory at Jan 3, 2018, 3:49 AM EST for 17 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Jan 4, 2018, 12:00 AM EST. It was in force for 12 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jan 3, 2018, 3:49 AM EST (08:49 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 4, 2018, 12:00 AM EST
Expired
Jan 4, 2018, 12:00 PM EST
In force
12 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI

Counties Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 155 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2018-01-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2018-01-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 404 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
732 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
404 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
434 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

926 
WWUS43 KAPX 030849
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
349 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

MIZ016-017-031700-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.180104T0500Z-180104T1700Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Cheboygan
349 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow through much of the day. Very cold wind
  chills expected tonight. Plan on slippery road conditions,
  including during this morning's commute. Additional snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Expect wind chills to range 
  from 15 below zero to 25 below zero tonight.

* WHERE...Emmet and Cheboygan Counties.

* WHEN...For the WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, until 7 PM EST this 
  evening. For the WIND CHILL ADVISORY, from midnight tonight to 
  noon EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Cold wind chills as low as 25 below zero will cause 
  frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

MIZ008-015-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-031700-
/O.NEW.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.180104T0500Z-180104T1700Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, St. Ignace, 
Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Grayling, Mio, 
Harrisville, Houghton Lake, West Branch, and Tawas City
349 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Dangerously cold 
  wind chills as low as 30 below zero will cause frostbite in as 
  little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to 
  range from 15 below zero to 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

MIZ019-021-027-031700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T0000Z/
Charlevoix-Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Charlevoix, Mancelona, and Kalkaska
349 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow continuing through much of the day. Plan
  on slippery road conditions and reduced visibility, including
  during the morning commute. Additional snow accumulations of 3
  to 5 inches are expected with locally higher amounts.

* WHERE...Charlevoix, Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause patchy blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ026-032-031700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T1200Z/
Grand Traverse-Wexford-
Including the cities of Traverse City and Cadillac
349 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Accumulating lake effect snow will continue through
  tonight. Plan on difficult travel conditions and reduced
  visibility, including during the morning and evening commute.
  Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches through today,
  and another 1 to 2 inches tonight. Locally higher amounts.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse and Wexford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will 
  cause patchy blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chills as 
  low as 15 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 30 
  minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ020-025-031-031700-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180105T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Manistee
349 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Accumulating lake effect snow will continue through
  tonight. Plan on difficult travel conditions and reduced
  visibility, including during the morning and evening commute.
  Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches through today,
  and another 2 to 3 inches both tonight and Thursday. Locally 
  higher amounts.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause patchy blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/apx
5 follow-up statements
034 
WWUS43 KAPX 031751
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1251 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

MIZ016-017-040200-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T0000Z/
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.180104T0500Z-180104T1700Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-
Including the cities of Petoskey and Cheboygan
1251 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EST THURSDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Dangerously cold 
  wind chills as low as 30 below zero will cause frostbite in as 
  little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to 
  range from 15 below zero to 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

MIZ019-031900-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T0000Z/
Charlevoix-
Including the city of Charlevoix
1251 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The steadiest snow has moved out of the area, therefore the winter
weather advisory has been cancelled. 

$$

MIZ021-027-040000-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T0000Z/
Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Kalkaska
1251 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow continuing through much of the day. 
  Plan on slippery road conditions and reduced visibility, 
  including during the morning commute. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected with locally 
  higher amounts.

* WHERE...Charlevoix, Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause patchy blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ026-032-040200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T1200Z/
Grand Traverse-Wexford-
Including the cities of Traverse City and Cadillac
1251 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Accumulating lake effect snow will continue through 
  tonight. Plan on difficult travel conditions and reduced 
  visibility, including during the morning and evening commute. 
  Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches through today, 
  and another 1 to 2 inches tonight. Locally higher amounts.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse and Wexford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will 
  cause patchy blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chills as 
  low as 15 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 30 
  minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ020-025-031-040200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180105T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Manistee
1251 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Accumulating lake effect snow will continue through 
  tonight. Plan on difficult travel conditions and reduced 
  visibility, including during the morning and evening commute. 
  Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches through today, 
  and another 2 to 3 inches both tonight and Thursday. Locally 
  higher amounts.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will 
  cause patchy blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ008-015-018-022>024-028>030-034>036-040200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.180104T0500Z-180104T1700Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, St. Ignace, 
Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Grayling, Mio, 
Harrisville, Houghton Lake, West Branch, and Tawas City
1251 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Dangerously cold 
  wind chills as low as 30 below zero will cause frostbite in as 
  little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to 
  range from 15 below zero to 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/apx
558 
WWUS43 KAPX 032048
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
348 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

MIZ021-027-040500-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.180104T0500Z-180104T1700Z/
Antrim-Kalkaska-
Including the cities of Mancelona and Kalkaska
348 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Cold wind chills as low
  as 20 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes
  to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 15 below zero
  to 25 below zero.

* WHERE...Antrim and Kalkaska Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Thursday.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

MIZ019-033-041-042-040500-
/O.EXA.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.180104T0500Z-180104T1700Z/
Charlevoix-Missaukee-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Charlevoix, Lake City, Gladwin, 
and Standish
348 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Cold wind chills as low
  as 20 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes
  to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to range from 15 below zero
  to 25 below zero.

* WHERE...Charlevoix, Missaukee, Gladwin and Arenac Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

MIZ026-032-040500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T1200Z/
Grand Traverse-Wexford-
Including the cities of Traverse City and Cadillac
348 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the evening commute. In addition, some 
  reductions to visibility are expected. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse and Wexford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will 
  cause patchy blowing and drifting snow. Cold wind chills as 
  low as 15 below zero will cause frostbite in as little as 30 
  minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ020-025-031-040500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180105T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Manistee
348 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Thursday. In addition,
  some reductions to visibility are expected. Additional snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 30 mph will cause
  patchy blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ008-015>018-022>024-028>030-034>036-040500-
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.180104T0500Z-180104T1700Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, St. Ignace, Petoskey, 
Cheboygan, Rogers City, Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Grayling, Mio, 
Harrisville, Houghton Lake, West Branch, and Tawas City
348 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Dangerously cold
  wind chills as low as 30 below zero will cause frostbite in as
  little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to
  range from 20 below zero to 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/apx
028 
WWUS43 KAPX 040309
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1009 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

MIZ026-032-041115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T1200Z/
Grand Traverse-Wexford-
Including the cities of Traverse City and Cadillac
1009 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions. 
  Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches are expected.

* WHERE...Grand Traverse and Wexford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero will cause 
  frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ020-025-031-041115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180105T0000Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Manistee-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, and Manistee
1009 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute on Thursday. In addition, 
  some reductions to visibility are expected. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 25 mph will 
  cause patchy blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ008-015>019-021>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-041115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.180104T0500Z-180104T1700Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, St. Ignace, Petoskey, 
Cheboygan, Rogers City, Charlevoix, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, 
Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Lake City, 
Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
1009 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills expected. Dangerously cold 
  wind chills as low as 30 below zero will cause frostbite in as 
  little as 10 minutes to exposed skin. Expect wind chills to 
  range from 10 below zero to 30 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/apx
327 
WWUS43 KAPX 040815
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
315 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

MIZ020-025-026-031-041615-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180105T2200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
and Manistee
315 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of lake effect snow and significant reductions to
  visibility to continue. Plan on difficult travel conditions,
  including for morning and afternoon commutes. Additional snow
  accumulations will generally be 1 to 3 inches today, tonight and
  Friday, with locally higher amounts. 

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse and Manistee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero 
  will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ032-041200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T1200Z/
Wexford-
Including the city of Cadillac
315 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Periods of lake effect snow and significantly reduced
  visibility will continue through daybreak, then taper off. The
  morning commute may be impacted. Only minor additional
  accumulation of up to an inch expected.

* WHERE...Wexford County.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

MIZ008-015>019-021>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-041615-
/O.CON.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T1700Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, St. Ignace, Petoskey, 
Cheboygan, Rogers City, Charlevoix, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, 
Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Lake City, 
Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
315 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Cold wind chills of 20 to
  25 degrees below zero will be felt across much of the area,
  locally as cold as 30 below zero. This can cause frostbite in as
  little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/apx
250 
WWUS43 KAPX 041702
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1202 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018


MIZ008-015>019-021>024-027>030-033>036-041-042-041815-
/O.EXP.KAPX.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180104T1700Z/
Chippewa-Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, St. Ignace, Petoskey, 
Cheboygan, Rogers City, Charlevoix, Mancelona, Gaylord, Atlanta, 
Alpena, Kalkaska, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, Lake City, 
Houghton Lake, West Branch, Tawas City, Gladwin, and Standish
1202 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...



$$

MIZ020-025-026-031-050115-
/O.CON.KAPX.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180105T2200Z/
Leelanau-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Manistee-
Including the cities of Northport, Frankfort, Traverse City, 
and Manistee
1202 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow occurring. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions. Where snow showers persist...expect additional snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through the afternoon with an
  additional 2 to 5 inches tonight.

* WHERE...Leelanau, Benzie, Grand Traverse and Manistee Counties.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times. Cold wind chills as low as 15 below zero will cause 
  frostbite in as little as 30 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

$$

http://www.weather.gov/apx

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind chill advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind chill advisory went out at Jan 3, 3:29 AM EST, 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 3, 3:29 AM EST, 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
329 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

High impact weather potential: Accumulating lake effect snow and
some blowing snow. Smaller flakes and less than typical visibility.
Very cold wind chills tonight over much of the area.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

The upper troughing over the region remains in place with the next
shortwave, associated low pressure and it's arctic front is now
pressing into the western Great Lakes. Moisture has been deepening
over nrn Michigan with enhanced lake effect solidly underway in the
SW/WSW snowbelts. Decent snowbands were impacting all of NW lower
Michigan, and even creeping some lighter snows into portions of NE
lower. Across eastern upper, more of the system snows were
occurring. Temperatures were in the teens most areas with still a
little bit of gustiness.

The shortwave, low pressure and associated arctic front will cross
nrn Michigan today, with cold advection allowing H8 temps of -18C to
fall to -24C tonight. The current SW/WSW lake effect snows will
continue into this morning, but will fairly quickly be veering
through the day to out of the NNW. While the individual bands show
some decent 1/2 to 1 inch per hours snows, the fanning of the lake
effect will certainly cut into accumulation potential, as does the
smaller and smaller flakes that are expected as the air mass become
much colder. However, data certainly suggestive of max forcing/lift
nailing the sinking DGZ, even through tonight. This will counteract
the negatives for total snowfall potential. Am expecting an average
3-4" across much of NW lower this morning, and possibly into
Drummond Island, then as winds go NNW, 4-6 inches on average in the
GTV Bay region today through tonight.

Highs upper teens to low 20s today. Lows tonight in increasingly
colder air in the single digits in snow and clouds around the GTV
Bay region, with some clearing in interior areas of nrn lower and
eastern Chip/Mack counties for negative single digits to negative
teens. These areas would be much colder if the BL winds weren't
still blowing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...Coldest air of the season late this week...

High Impact Weather Potential: Dangerously cold Thursday and Friday
with accompany N/NNW flow lake effect snow.

Pattern Forecast: Deep trough axis is progged to be centered
overhead by Thursday morning with the season's coldest air to date
evident across the western lakes. A nor'easter will be trekking up
the East Coast keeping cold air bottled up locally though the end of
the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: N/NNW flow lake effect snow
and dangerously cold temperatures/wind chills.

The lake effect machine will remain cranked up across portions of
far northwest lower through the entire forecast period as very cold
air sits atop the region (H8 temperatures varying from -23 to -28
C). Primary target areas will be N/NNW locales of Leelanau, Benzie
and Manistee counties...and to a lesser extend Grand Traverse and
Wexford. Very cold temperatures are expected to limit overall
snowflake size and resultant accumulation (although there remains
signals for a slightly better DGZ depth at various times through the
forecast period thanks to a long fetch with a central Lake Superior
connection). Given a very dry airmass is expected overhead and
little in the way of appreciable synoptic support, 2-4"
accumulations per 12 hour period from Thursday through Friday seems
feasible.

Perhaps of greater concern will be dangerously cold temperatures/
wind chills affecting the majority of northern Michigan (especially
outside of the aforementioned N/NNW flow lake effect areas) through
the end of the week. Max temps Thursday within a few degrees on
either side of 0 F across the bulk of the area..."warming" to the
low teens near Manistee/Frankfort. Low temps Thursday likely in the
low-upper teens below zero for many, except in the single digits
above zero in N/NNW flow locales.

Wind chills Thursday morning below -25 F likely for most with the
exception of near and west of TVC. Wind chills headlines likely
across many locations. Wind chills bottom out early Friday morning,
close to -40 F at ANJ and close to -30 for many locations east of I-
75.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

High impact weather potential: Periods of accumulating snow and more
shots of very cold air expected.

N/NNW flow lake effect continues into Saturday before a rather
progressive pattern returns for the remainder of the extended. As a
result, variable temperatures and several chances for accumulating
snowfall will be possible across the area as several clippers race
across the northern plains into the western Great Lakes. Tough to
pinpoint the smaller scale details with respect to timing, strength,
etc, but certainly safe to say that periods of accumulating snow and
occasionally very cold temperatures will continue for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 619 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

Snow arrives overnight into the day on Wednesday as an arctic cold
front sweeps across the area. Widespread MVFR cigs developing,
with areas of IFR vsby's possible late tonight into Wednesday
morning at MBL/TVC/PLN. Gusty winds this evening will diminish a
bit overnight into early Wednesday, before increasing again
Wednesday afternoon behind the cold front. The gusty winds will
create areas of blowing snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

Widespread advisory level winds expected most areas today behind the
passage of an arctic front and increasing overlake instability.
Winds speeds do not looks as favorable for gales, and no gale
warnings will be hoisted. However, certainly locally higher gales
possible. Advisories will run through Thursday night and in some
nearshore waters into Friday and Friday night. Lake effect snows
coming out of the WSW will switch to NNW through the day and then
continue through the forecast period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ026-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ020-025-
     031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ016-
     017-019-021-027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY from midnight tonight to noon EST Thursday
     for MIZ008-015>018-022>024-028>030-034>036.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Friday for LHZ347>349.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345-346.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Friday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Thursday for LMZ341.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Friday for LSZ321.
&&

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...JK
MARINE...SMD
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 3, 3:39 AM EST, 10 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-040845-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
339 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Accumulating Lake effect snow will impact much of northwest lower
today and then continue in the Grand Traverse region tonight. This
will result in hazardous travel. Also, very cold wind chills
develop tonight. Please refer to the latest winter weather
advisories for further details.

With the persistent cold weather, ice jams are possible on area
rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periods of accumulating snow and well below zero wind chills at
night will continue across northern Michigan into the start of
the weekend. The coldest temperatures so far this winter will be
over the region into the start of the weekend, resulting in the
dangerous wind chills.

Persistent cold weather could cause ice jam flooding on area rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the
National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 2, 7:10 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryAPX6 days
Jan 2, 7:10 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryAPX3 hr

Nearby

Wind Chill Advisories in Michigan, 2018Every wind chill advisory in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.