Small Craft Advisory 32, NWS Gaylord, MI

185 
WHUS73 KAPX 130217
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1017 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

LSZ321-322-131030-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1017 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from noon to 10 PM EDT
Wednesday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345>348-131030-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1017 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from noon to 10 PM EDT
Wednesday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344-131030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.180613T1600Z-180614T0100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
1017 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from noon to 9 PM EDT
Wednesday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ349-131030-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1017 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from noon to 10 PM EDT
Wednesday. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

583 
WHUS73 KAPX 130851
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
451 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

LSZ321-322-131700-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
451 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from noon today to 10 PM EDT
this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345>348-131700-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
451 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from noon today to 10 PM EDT
this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344-131700-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.180613T1600Z-180614T0100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
451 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from noon today to 9 PM
EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ349-131700-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
451 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from noon today to 10 PM
EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

899 
WHUS73 KAPX 131040
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
640 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

LSZ321-322-131845-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
640 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from noon today to 10 PM EDT
this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345>348-131845-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
640 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect from noon today to 10 PM EDT
this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LMZ345-346-131845-
/O.EXA.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.180613T1600Z-180614T0100Z/
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
640 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued A Small Craft
Advisory...which is in effect from noon today to 9 PM EDT this
evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344-131845-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.180613T1600Z-180614T0100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
640 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from noon today to 9 PM
EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ349-131845-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
640 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from noon today to 10 PM
EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

367 
WHUS73 KAPX 131412
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1012 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

LSZ321-322-132215-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1012 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345>348-132215-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
1012 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-132215-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.180613T1600Z-180614T0100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
1012 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM EDT this
evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ349-132215-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.180613T1600Z-180614T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
1012 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM EDT this
evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

832 
WHUS73 KAPX 132005
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
405 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

LSZ321-322-140200-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180614T0200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
405 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345>348-140200-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180614T0200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
405 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-140100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180614T0100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
405 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM EDT this
evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

LHZ349-140200-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180614T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
405 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM EDT this
evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

716 
WHUS73 KAPX 132044
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
444 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

LHZ349-140200-
/O.UPG.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180614T0200Z/
/O.EXA.KAPX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180614T0200Z/
Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
444 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued A Gale
Warning...which is in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening. THE
Small Craft Advisory IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LSZ321-322-140200-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180614T0200Z/
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
444 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LHZ345>348-140200-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180614T0200Z/
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-
444 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and
properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners
without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset
of gale conditions.

$$

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-140100-
/O.CON.KAPX.SC.Y.0032.000000T0000Z-180614T0100Z/
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
444 PM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM EDT this
evening. 

* Please see the latest marine forecasts for more detailed 
  information. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
355 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...Shower and t-storm chances increasing...

High impact weather potential...a few severe t-storms possible
eastern upper MI after midnight.

A couple of shortwaves are rotating around the southern flank of an
upper low over the northern Canadian prairies. The initial wave, a
bit too far north to be caught in the stronger westerlies, will
slowly progress into far nw Ontario. The second, more southerly wave
is currently racing across the Dakotas.  This wave will amplify and
lose its positive tilt as it heads toward central upper MI and
central Superior by 8am. Models are still playing catch-up as to how
dynamic this shortwave can be, but between its amplification and
fast movement, it should pack quite a punch. Precip trends are the
main concern.

In the interim, a cu field continues to mature over northern lower
MI, ahead of lake breeze boundaries that are evident in obs/radar/
vsbl satellite. Nothing has been cooked off down here yet, but the
Rap/HRRR do kick off some convection in the CAD/Lake City area, and
down around Gladwin, as we approach 00z. In upper MI, some showers
are found along the western edge of the Lake MI shadow over central
upper MI (as is typical). Some of this activity could graze far
western Chip/Mack Cos thru early evening.

After 8 pm, do not expect convection to simply wane with loss of
heating. We will see a slow steady lowering of 500mb heights. Nam
Bufr data indicates slow cooling at 700mb, with steady moistening on
light-ish sw winds below 700mb. These combine to maintain, and in
fact increase, available instability. Spotty convection should thus
be maintained as it moves ne this evening, and one or two additional
rounds will be kicked off later tonight, especially after midnight.
Most recent Rap/HRRR runs have another band of convection kicking
off toward 1-2am in western/northern sections, still in advance of
the strongest forcing. Earlier runs were reluctant to return precip
until later.

Highest precip chances "tonight" will clearly be at and after 1st
light. Very sharp height falls and DPVA forcing should have enough
instability to generate convection into eastern upper and nw lower
after 5 am. Highest pops will be west of I-75 (in both peninsulas)
and north of M-72. Numerous to categorical showers and chances for t-
storms are mentioned in these areas. It is difficult to see that we
will have enough instability at such a late hour to realize a svr
threat, but given the dynamics and abrupt shock of forcing, perhaps
we don't need much. 0-6km bulk shear increase to 50-55kt in eastern
upper MI, with sw winds near 25kt at 850mb and near 55kt at 500mb.
Perhaps a rotating updraft or two will more effectively tap marginal
instability; perhaps upstream convection will have enough pure
momentum to pose a svr threat. An SPC update at noon placed parts of
eastern upper (near/west of I-75) in a marginal risk for svr.

Min temps tonight mainly in the 50s to lower 60s, though near
Whitefish Bay readings will dip back into the upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Winds Wednesday will be approaching
low end gale speeds, especially in areas from Whitefish Bay down to
Thunder Bay.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: A robust shortwave, currently visible in
water vapor imagery over Montana, will continue to move across the
northern Plains today. This will dampen the broad ridging spanning
across the CONUS, and of more interest will aid in the development
of a surface low near the Ontario/Quebec border. This will result in
a tight pressure gradient setup across eastern upper and generally
northeast lower by Wednesday afternoon. High pressure will once
again overspread the region into the end of the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns: With the next rain chances looking to
hold off until early Saturday, the magnitude of the wind gusts
Wednesday is the primary concern for the short term. With the
developing surface low to our northeast, and the resultant tight
pressure gradient over eastern portions of the CWA, winds will
increase greatly through the day Wednesday. Just how much is the
question. With H8 temps in the 7-9C range Wednesday, low level lapse
rates will be steep enough to aid in the mixing down of the robust
winds aloft, with 925mb winds in the 35-45kt range. The real
consternation is with the winds in the marine zones. Strong winds
will be present over Whitefish Bay, but the colder temperatures of
the deeper water will result in a more stable setup, and perhaps
realizing less of those winds aloft. However, there is a good
downward forcing signal that could further aid in getting the faster
winds down, with positive QG omega over most of the region by
Wednesday afternoon.

Looking to the nearshore waters, especially from the the Straits to
Thunder Bay, the shallower waters have warmed a bit more, and will
be at least a little warmer than the cool air moving over them.
Instability here is not great, generally 3-5C/km, but it is more
unstable than the situation to the north. The NAM is quite a bit
higher with winds, sometimes 20kts+, and seems a bit unrealistic at
this point. But looking at several other sources, even if we only
manage to see 80 percent of the 925 winds there will be a period
Wednesday afternoon with at least some low end gale potential.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Another warm stretch is on tap as broad ridging remains setup over
the eastern CONUS, with deep troughing setting up out west. Expect
temperatures well above normal, with humidity increasing over the
weekend. There is the potential for some showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend, especially with all of the moisture and
instability that will be around.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Period of MVFR to IFR cigs expected late tonight/Wed morning.

Low pressure will intensify tonight and Wednesday ne of Lk
Superior. An associated cold front will cross northern MI Wed
morning. A few showers and storms may pop this afternoon, but much
better chances for rain arrive very late tonight into Wed morning.
Much lower cigs will accompany those rain chances, with LIFR cigs
a possibility in some areas for several hours Wed morning.

Lake breezes this afternoon. Light west breezes tonight, becoming
increasingly gusty by midday Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Winds and waves will pick up Wednesday morning as a potent shortwave
and cold front move through. Winds of 30-35kts are expected over
Lake Superior and northern Lake Huron, with gale warnings in effect.
Winds of 20-25kts are expected over northern Lake Michigan and
around Grand Traverse Bay, as well as near Saginaw Bay, with small
craft advisories for these areas. Winds will begin to subside
Wednesday night, with high pressure and lighter winds expected going
into the weekend.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING from noon to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345>348.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from noon to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-
     341-342-344.
LS...GALE WARNING from noon to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
&&

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...AM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
407 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-132015-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
407 PM EDT Tue Jun 12 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening and
tonight across northern Michigan. A few severe storms are possible
after 10 pm tonight in eastern upper Michigan, mainly near and
west of I-75. Any severe storms could produce large hail and
damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms early Wednesday across portions
of eastern upper and northern lower Michigan. Severe storms are
not expected.

Gale force wind gusts are expected on the nearshore waters
bordering eastern upper and northeast lower Michigan for part of
Wednesday.

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms across all of northern
Michigan Friday night through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.