River Flood Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

713 
WGUS83 KAPX 201145
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
645 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Storm total rainfall potentially in excess of an inch and a half, as
well as snowmelt from warming temperatures through tonight will 
result in significant rises on the Rifle river near Sterling. The 
river is expected to rise above flood stage this afternoon, reaching 
a crest by Wednesday evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...


Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new forecast information becomes 
available.


&&

MIC011-202345-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.180220T1730Z-180223T1536Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.180220T1730Z.180222T0000Z.180223T0936Z.NO/
645 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* from this afternoon to Friday morning.
* At  6:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 4.9 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 8.8 feet by tomorrow evening.the river will fall below
  flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    4.9  Tue 06 AM       7.9     8.6     6.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

346 
WGUS83 KAPX 201541
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1041 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Storm total rainfall in excess of two inches, as well as runoff from recent snowmelt, will result in significant rises on the Rifle river near Sterling. The river is expected to rise above flood stage this afternoon, reaching a crest by Wednesday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new forecast information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-210341-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.180220T1800Z-180223T0400Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.180220T1800Z.180221T1800Z.180222T2200Z.NO/
1041 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Thursday evening.
* At 10:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 8.8 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.the river will 
  fall below flood stage by Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    5.4  Tue 10 AM       8.0     7.9     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379           


$$

043 
WGUS83 KAPX 201550
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1050 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Storm total rainfall in excess of two inches, as well as runoff from recent snowmelt, will result in significant rises on the Rifle river near Sterling. The river is expected to rise above flood stage this afternoon, reaching a crest by Wednesday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...


Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.



The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation...Insert time here!!...as new 
information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-210350-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.180220T1800Z-180223T0400Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.180220T1800Z.180221T1800Z.180222T2200Z.NO/
1050 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Thursday evening.
* At 10:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 8.8 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.the river will 
  fall below flood stage by Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    5.4  Tue 10 AM       8.0     7.9     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

100 
WGUS83 KAPX 201554
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1054 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Periods of heavy rain and runoff from recent snowmelt will continue to result in significant rises on the Rifle River near Sterling through Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned area should take steps to protect property from rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new forecast information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-210354-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.180220T1800Z-180223T0400Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.180220T1800Z.180221T1800Z.180222T2200Z.NO/
1054 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Thursday evening.
* At 10:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 8.8 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.the river will 
  fall below flood stage by Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    5.4  Tue 10 AM       8.0     7.9     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

156 
WGUS83 KAPX 201559
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1059 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Periods of heavy rain and runoff from recent snowmelt will continue
to result in water rises on the Rifle River near Sterling through
Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...


Persons in the warned area should take steps to protect property
from the rising water levels.



The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new forecast information becomes
available.


&&

MIC011-210359-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.180220T1800Z-180223T0400Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.180220T1800Z.180221T1800Z.180222T2200Z.NO/
1059 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Thursday evening.
* At 10:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 8.8 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.the river will 
  fall below flood stage by Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    5.4  Tue 10 AM       8.0     7.9     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

897 
WGUS83 KAPX 202028
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
328 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Periods of heavy rain and runoff from recent snowmelt will continue
to result in water rises on the Rifle River near Sterling through
Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned area should take steps to protect property
from the rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-210828-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180223T0400Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1800Z.180222T2200Z.NO/
328 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Thursday evening.
* At  2:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.2 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 8.8 feet by 
  tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    6.2  Tue 02 PM       8.0     7.9     5.3


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

084 
WGUS43 KAPX 210043
FLWAPX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
743 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

...The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers in Michigan...

  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County
  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Forecast rainfall potentially in excess of an inch and a half, as
well as snowmelt from warming temperatures into this evening will continue to result in significant rises on the Rifle river near Sterling and on the Manistee River near Sherman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation...Insert time here!!...as new 
information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-211243-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180223T1200Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1200Z.180223T0600Z.NO/
743 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Rifle River near Sterling.* At  7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.0 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Friday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...High water impacts property south of 
  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    8.1  Tue 07 PM       9.0     6.0     4.5


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-211243-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FL.W.0002.180222T0000Z-180222T1200Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.180222T0000Z.180222T0000Z.180222T0600Z.NR/
743 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* from Wednesday evening to Thursday morning....
* At  6:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Flooding begins around the Wilderness Canoe 
  livery along left bank of river just downstream of M-37 bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   13.1  Tue 06 PM      15.0    14.5    13.8


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

278 
WGUS43 KAPX 210048 CCA
FLWAPX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
743 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

...The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers in Michigan...

  Manistee River near Sherman AFFECTING Wexford County
  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Forecast rainfall potentially in excess of an inch and a half, as
well as snowmelt from warm temperatures into this evening will
continue to result in significant rises on the Rifle river near
Sterling and on the Manistee River near Sherman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property 
from rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation...Insert time here!!...as new 
information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-211243-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180223T1200Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1200Z.180223T0600Z.NO/
743 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Rifle River near Sterling.* At  7:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.0 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Friday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...High water impacts property south of 
  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    8.1  Tue 07 PM       9.0     6.0     4.5


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

MIC165-211243-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FL.W.0002.180222T0000Z-180222T1200Z/
/SHRM4.1.ER.180222T0000Z.180222T0000Z.180222T0600Z.NR/
743 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Manistee River near Sherman.
* from Wednesday evening to Thursday morning....
* At  6:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  tomorrow evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Flooding begins around the Wilderness Canoe 
  livery along left bank of river just downstream of M-37 bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Wed     Thu     Fri

Manistee River
  Sherman           15   13.1  Tue 06 PM      15.0    14.5    13.8


&&


LAT...LON 4451 8552 4436 8552 4434 8569 4438 8580
      4447 8580                       



$$

162 
WGUS83 KAPX 210823
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
323 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Recent heavy rain and runoff from snowmelt will continue
to result in water rises on the Rifle River near Sterling through
this morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned area should take steps to protect property
from the rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this flooding situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-212023-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180223T1200Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1200Z.180223T0600Z.NO/
323 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Friday morning.
* At  2:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.9 feet by this
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage early Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...High water impacts property south of 
  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   10.4  Wed 02 AM       9.2     6.0     4.5


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

951 
WGUS43 KAPX 211619
FLWAPX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1119 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Moderate Severity for the 
following rivers in Michigan...
  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Runoff from recent heavy rain and snowmelt has resulted in a quick
rise of the Rifle River near Sterling this morning. Evacuations are
ongoing along several roads near the Rifle River in this area. River
levels are expected to slowly recede, although additional
fluctuations are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned area should take steps to protect property
from the rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this flooding situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-220419-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180224T0000Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1430Z.180223T1800Z.NR/
1119 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Observed flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Rifle River near Sterling.* At 10:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 12.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Friday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...High water impacts property south of 
  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   12.8  Wed 10 AM      11.2     7.3     5.2


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

452 
WGUS83 KAPX 220049
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
749 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling Affecting Arenac County

.Significant water rises on the Tobacco River at Beaverton
from recent heavy rain and snow melt, have begun to slowly 
recede. However, high water levels are expected to remain
overnight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned area should take steps to protect 
property from the rising water levels.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or local media outlets for
the latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another 
statement on this developing situation as new information
becomes available.


&&

MIC011-221249-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180224T0000Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1430Z.180223T1800Z.NR/
749 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Friday evening.
* At  7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.4 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Friday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...High water impacts property south of 
  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   12.4  Wed 07 PM       7.3     5.2     4.8


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

959 
WGUS83 KAPX 220053
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
753 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in ...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Significant water rises on the Rifle River at Sterling
from recent heavy rain and snow melt, have begun to slowly 
recede. However, high water levels are expected to remain
overnight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned area should take steps to protect property
from the rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another 
statement on this flooding situation as new information becomes
available.

&&

MIC011-221253-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180224T0000Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1430Z.180223T1800Z.NR/
753 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Friday evening.
* At  7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.4 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Friday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...High water impacts property south of 
  Townline Road downstream of Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Thu     Fri     Sat

Rifle River
  Sterling           6   12.4  Wed 07 PM       7.3     5.2     4.8


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

463 
WGUS83 KAPX 221055
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
554 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Water levels on the Rifle River near Sterling remain above flood 
stage but have been falling since last evening. Latest
forecast suggests the river level will fall below flood stage
Friday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned area should take steps to protect property
from the rising water levels.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another 
statement on this flooding situation as new information becomes
available.

&&

MIC011-222254-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180223T1800Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1430Z.180223T1200Z.NR/
554 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  5:30 AM Thursday the stage was 9.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Fri     Sat     Sun

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    9.6  Thu 05 AM       6.6     5.2     4.8


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

ADAM

479 
WGUS83 KAPX 221616
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1116 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.While river levels will slowly recede, development of unexpected
ice jams could result in rapid fluctuations of river levels and
possible development of significant flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Persons in the warned area should take steps to protect property
from possible rapid fluctuations in water levels due to ice jam
development.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-230416-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180223T1700Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1430Z.180223T1100Z.NR/
1116 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 10:30 AM Thursday the stage was 8.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Fri     Sat     Sun

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    8.6  Thu 10 AM       6.5     5.2     4.9


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

116 
WGUS83 KAPX 230128
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
828 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.While river levels continue to recede, development of unexpected
ice jams could result in rapid fluctuations of river levels and
possible development of significant flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the 
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement 
on this developing situation...Friday morning...as new 
information becomes available.

&&

MIC011-231328-
/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180223T1700Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1430Z.180223T1100Z.NR/
828 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Friday afternoon.
* At  7:30 PM Thursday the stage was 7.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...High water begins to impact campground at 
  White's Canoe Livery at Melita Road bridge.

 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Fri     Sat     Sun

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    7.6  Thu 07 PM       5.2     4.9     4.6


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

971 
WGUS83 KAPX 231614
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1114 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following river in 
Michigan...

  Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.The Rifle River at Sterling has finally falling below flood stage,
and water levels are expected to continue to fall. However, possible
ice jam formation may result in rapid fluctuations of water levels
and possible localized flooding away from the actual gauge reading
location.

&&

MIC011-231644-
/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180223T1700Z/
/STRM4.2.ER.180220T1852Z.180221T1430Z.180223T1521Z.NR/
1114 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Rifle River near Sterling.
* At 10:30 AM Friday the stage was 6.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 10:21 AM Friday.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.2 feet by tomorrow 
  morning.
 
&& 
 
                   FLD      OBSERVED               FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION           STG    STG  DAY  TIME       Sat     Sun     Mon

Rifle River
  Sterling           6    6.0  Fri 10 AM       5.3     4.9     5.2


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
      4408 8384 4399 8379             



$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
713 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

...Increasing chances of freezing rain north of M-32 tonight into
Tuesday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Freezing rain north of M-32 causing
ice accumulations and hazardous travel. Potential for heavy rain
along and south of M-55...especially near Saginaw Bay.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Inverted trough axis extends from the
Ontario/Quebec border thru Central Upper Michigan and Central
Wisconsin to a complex area of low pressure centered along the
Kansas/Missouri border. Long train of convection continues to expand
along the associated warm front from the Southern Plains thru the
Mid Mississippi Valley to areas north of the Ohio Valley. Northern
edge of deepening moisture...strengthen F-gen and the resulting area
of convection has reached our CWA...marking the first wave of
several areas of energy and resulting precip that will impact our
CWA over the next 36 to 48 hours. Temps have risen to a couple of
degrees either side of 40 across Northern Lower Michigan and into
the low to mid 30s across Eastern Upper Michigan this afternoon.
Some light rain has begun to reach the ground across the SW half of
our CWA...possibly mixed with some snow/sleet during the onset of
precip as low level dwpts slowly rise.

As we head into tonight and Tuesday...synoptic precip will continue
to expand across our CWA as deeper moisture surges northward along
the inverted trough...which stalls over our general vcnty tonight.
Warm nose aloft will continue to develop...become quite pronounced
after 00Z this evening. Model soundings still suggest areas north of
M-32 will see mainly freezing rain once surface temps drop AOB
freezing this evening...with some snow/sleet mixing in especially
across Eastern Upper Michigan. Areas along and south of M-32 should
remain mostly rain as surface temps only fall into the mid to upper
30s. Surface temps will slowly warm to above freezing from south to
north during Tuesday morning...with most areas across our northern
CWA seeing a temporary switch over from freezing rain to plain rain
Tuesday afternoon. Ongoing Winter Wx Advisories for Eastern Upper
and the tip of the Mitt counties will remain in tact given the above
scenario. Will certain need to keep an eye on the next tier of
counties to the south along M-32 for temp trends and precip type as
we head thru tonight.

Strong WAA on Tuesday will push temps well above normal across
Northern Lower Michigan...with afternoon highs ranging from the
lower 40s just south of the Bridge to the mid 50s along our southern
tier of counties. Tight temp gradient will be most pronounced along
the Straits (as is not untypical). High temps Tuesday afternoon will
be significantly cooler across eastern Upper Michigan...warming only
in the mid 30s.

With respect to the potential for heavy rainfall...latest short term
models still target our far SE CWA around Saginaw Bay for the
heaviest rainfall potential. This are could see between an inch and
a half and two inches of rainfall over the next 36 to 48 hours. Will
certainly maintain the Flood Watch for this area thru Wednesday
morning for this potential heavy rainfall event.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday night through Thursday)
Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

...System finally departs, then quiet weather through midweek...

High Impact Weather Potential...Some additional ice accumulation
possible Tuesday evening across eastern Upper and Tip of the Mitt,
but it would be minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Final wave of low pressure will ride
northeast along the thermal gradient over northern Michigan Tuesday
evening. As it departs, it will finally pull the frontal boundary
out of the area with it, with a very strong surface high and much
drier airmass building in from the west in its wake. Strong cold air
advection will occur as a result through Wednesday, relaxing
Wednesday night as the high drifts overhead. We'll start to get into
more of a return flow pattern by late Thursday afternoon as the high
pushes east, with rebounding temperatures towards the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Timing the departing precip. Also
lingering ptype concerns as the system exits Tuesday night.

Models are in decent agreement with the system's departure Tuesday
night and a resultant west to east diminishing trend to the precip.
The NAM and hi-res ARW/NMM are on the speedier end, with precip
largely clearing out of eastern Upper and northwest Lower by late
evening and out of the remainder of northeast Lower before daybreak
Wednesday. Other model guidance isn't too far behind.

Moisture will progressively be stripped out from top down from west
to east overnight as drier air encroaches from upstream. Expect that
may lead to a transition to drizzle or freezing drizzle on the back
edge of the departing precipitation. Forecast sounding thermal
profiles continue to support some freezing rain/drizzle across
eastern Upper until precip comes to an end there. Northern Lower
will continue to see rain through late evening, gradually
transitioning to some freezing precipitation as colder air sweeps in
near the surface. Suppose there could be a few snowflakes at the
tail end of this system before the column dries out completely.
Regardless, this last round of precipitation Tuesday night will be
rather light with only minimal additional ice accumulations expected
through about midnight, mainly across eastern Upper and Tip of the
Mitt.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal at this time.

High pressure will quickly push off to the east Thursday night with
return flow drawing increasing moisture back into the region.
Isentropic lift, a low level jet, and the right entrance region of
an upper jet streak will bring the next round of precip across
northern Michigan late Thursday night through Friday. Forecast
soundings presently suggest mainly snow, but will have to monitor
the developing warm nose aloft over the coming days. If it starts
looking any warmer, there could be greater concerns for perhaps a
wintry mix. Transient high pressure for the beginning of the
weekend, followed by a potential organized low lifting through the
Ohio Valley or southern Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday.
Considerable model variance at this time for the Sunday/Monday
timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 712 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Low pressure was in NW IL this evening with a stationary front
extending through nrn Michigan. Deep SW flow aloft with several
disturbances, combined with the advection of deeper moisture will
result in periods of rain across TVC/MBL and a mix of primarily
rain and freezing rain at PLN/APN into Tuesday morning. The front
lifts north as a warm front later Tuesday changing all precip back
over to rain at all airports. There could be some significant ice
accumulations at PLN, as much as 0.1" to 0.2" by Tuesday morning.
It is possible for another more brief period of freezing rain for
all airports Tuesday night, as a cold front pushes through nrn
Michigan, but chances for precipitation will be waning as drier
air filters in behind the front.

An overall easterly wind flow tonight will transition to southerly
Tuesday. Winds will be racing aloft while strong near sfc
stability will keep winds on the lighter side. This will result in
a period of LLWS Tuesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ008-015.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ016>019.

FLOOD WATCH through late Tuesday night for MIZ035-036-041-042.

&&

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-201100-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
339 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A wintry mix of precipitation will continue to impact Eastern Upper
and far Northern Lower Michigan tonight. Significant icing is
possible along and north of M-68. See ongoing advisories for further
details.

A period of heavier rain is possible toward Saginaw Bay starting
tonight and could produce rises on area rivers and streams. See
ongoing flood watch for details.

Ice jam flooding will remain possible on area rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A wintry mix of precipitation will continue to impact eastern
upper and portions of northern lower Michigan Tuesday and Tuesday
night. See ongoing advisories for further details.

A period of heavier rain is possible toward Saginaw Bay Tuesday
into Tuesday night and could produce rises on area rivers and
streams. See ongoing flood watch for details.

Ice jam flooding will remain possible on area rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.