Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
340 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Expecting storms today across the area and a severe thunderstorm
watch has already been issued. Visible satellite is showing a cu
field forming in the northwest and north central Panhandles.
Storms are expected to form along and ahead of the dryline that is
currently in eastern New Mexico and creeping into the far western
corner of Cimarron County. Bulk shear is around 30 to 40 kts and
soundings show 1200 to 2500 J of surfaced based CAPE with a
veering profile. This will allow for storms to be supercellular.
CAMs are showing discrete cells that may become more of a broken
line as the evening progresses. Large hail up to 2 inches or so
and damaging winds will be the main threats. LCL levels are
around 9000ft in the south and around 6000ft in the north. This
combined with 0-1km helicity in the north of 100-300 m squared per
s squared will also bring a window tonight, especially in the
north, for an isolated tornado or two. Storms will likely start
around 21Z and be out of the area by around 04Z. Any storms that
linger over an area may produce some localized flooding.

The mid level short wave responsible for the storms tonight will
push east and another will replace it tomorrow but further north
and keep storms mostly in the northeast corner of the area. A cold
front Wednesday will bring more storm potential to the northern
third of the Panhandles. Upper level southwest flow will return to
the area on Thursday and combine with downsloping winds to bring
high temps into the 100s for most of the region on Friday.
Troughing develops down the western coastline during this time and
begins to push eastward over the weekend and brings more chances
for storms again starting Sunday.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  94  62  96  65 /  30   5   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  67  92  63  92  65 /  80  20  10   0  20
Boise City OK              59  87  60  88  59 /  10  10   5  20  20
Borger TX                  68  95  64  95  66 /  40   5   5   5  10
Boys Ranch TX              64  93  60  95  64 /  10   5   5   0   5
Canyon TX                  63  95  61  98  65 /  20   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               68  98  65  98  68 /  30   5   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 60  90  59  91  60 /  10   5   5  10  10
Guymon OK                  64  90  62  91  63 /  60  10   5  10  20
Hereford TX                62  94  60  97  65 /  10   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                69  94  63  94  66 /  50  10  10   0  20
Pampa TX                   67  93  63  94  65 /  40   5   5   0   5
Shamrock TX                70  98  66  98  69 /  30   5   5   0   0
Wellington TX              71 100  67 101  71 /  20   5   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
308 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-290900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
308 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Panhandles. Some
storms may become severe with large hail bigger than golf balls
and damaging winds. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible.
Heavy rain from the strongest storms may produce localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday across
northern parts and again on Sunday for the whole area. Some of
the storms may become severe with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats.

High temperatures may warm to 105 degrees or higher in Palo Duro
Canyon State Park on Friday. Therefore, a heat advisory may become
necessary.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should stay alert for severe weather this afternoon and
evening.

Beat

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
429 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

OKZ001-002-282200-
Cimarron OK-Texas OK-
429 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN
CIMARRON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Keyes, or 9 miles east of Boise City, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Boise City, Keyes and Sturgis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3699 10188 3694 10172 3659 10232 3665 10263
      3700 10246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 210DEG 21KT 3673 10235

DGW