Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
631 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all three
TAF sites between 01Z and 08Z Sunday with MVFR ceilings and
visibilities in and near the thunderstorms. Northeast to east
winds 10 to 20 knots with some gusts to near 25 knots will shift
to the north 15 to 25 knots with gusts to near 30 to 35 knots
after 02Z to 04Z Sunday and then becoming northeast and east 5 to
15 knots after 14Z to 16Z Sunday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over far northwest Kansas will slowly drift
northeast and dissipate over the western Great Lakes by Monday
afternoon.  An upper level jet streak is found from the southern
Texas Panhandle northeast into northeast Kansas in association with
this upper low.  The southeast Texas Panhandle will be in the right
entrance region of this upper jet and a cold front is also found in
this area.  Plenty of low level moisture is also found in the far
southeast Texas Panhandle ahead of this front. Therefore, the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms will be across the southeast
Texas Panhandle overnight. A few showers and thunderstorms may try
to make a run at the northwest CWA as westerly flow aloft brings
mountain convection this way. Models are in disagreement on just how
robust this convection will be and they also do not agree on the
coverage.  For now will cover this northwest convection with 30 and
40 percent pops.

Not sure about our shower and thunderstorm chances for Sunday.  Next
cold front will come blasting through tonight and this should just
about wipe out our instability.  Plus we could have low clouds for
much of the day which will keep temperatures down. Temperatures will
probably stay in the 40s in northeast Colorado and the southern
Nebraska Panhandle today under the shield of rain on the west side
of the upper low. So, this is a fairly cool air mass for mid May
moving toward our area.

On Monday, our area is between upper air disturbances and this too
could keep our shower and thunderstorm activity at bay. However,
mountain convection should move into our area Monday night.

The southwest flow aloft increases Tuesday and Wednesday so this
will help in the shear department and this should help increase our
shower and thunderstorm coverage.

An upper level ridge builds across the Panhandles Thursday and
Friday, so will keep pops out for now.

After a "cool" start to the forecast, temperatures should go above
average by the middle part of the week.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
322 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-200830-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
322 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across the Panhandles tonight. A strong
to severe thunderstorm will be possible. Strong winds and hail
will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Wednesday night
across much of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some storms that
develop will have the potential to become strong to severe during
this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
653 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

OKZ001-TXZ001-200030-
Cimarron OK-Dallam TX-
653 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CIMARRON AND WESTERN
DALLAM COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 653 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles northwest of Kenton to 7 miles west of
Wheeless to 16 miles northwest of Hayden. Movement was northeast at
40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Texline, Kenton, Wheeless, Black Mesa Park, Ware and Felt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10254 3606 10260 3606 10304 3650 10304
      3650 10300 3700 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 226DEG 36KT 3702 10317 3672 10304 3617 10343

LFM