Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Amarillo, TX

683 
WWUS54 KAMA 170013
SVSAMA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
713 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

TXC211-295-170100-
/O.CON.KAMA.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-180517T0100Z/
Lipscomb TX-Hemphill TX-
713 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LIPSCOMB AND NORTHERN HEMPHILL COUNTIES...

At 713 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles west of Lake
Marvin, or 6 miles east of Canadian, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor damage to roofs, siding, and trees is possible. Hail 
         damage to vehicles is expected. 

Locations impacted include...
Canadian, Higgins, Glazier and Lake Marvin. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 10046 3604 10043 3620 10000 3570 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 249DEG 14KT 3590 10027 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TLH

930 
WWUS54 KAMA 170022
SVSAMA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
722 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

TXC211-295-170032-
/O.CAN.KAMA.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-180517T0100Z/
Lipscomb TX-Hemphill TX-
722 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LIPSCOMB AND
NORTHERN HEMPHILL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3582 10046 3604 10043 3620 10000 3570 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 217DEG 21KT 3594 10023 

$$

TLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
646 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

.AVIATION...
For the 00z TAFs...
Isolated thunderstorms over northwest and east-central parts of
the forecast area not expected to impact any of our terminals, and
are expected to dissipate shortly after sunset.

Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail next 24 hours.
Southeast surface winds at or below 15 kt expected overnight.
South and southeast surface winds increase around midday Thursday
with gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range through the afternoon.
Thunderstorms expected to develop around 20z Thursday, with GUY
and AMA having the greatest likelihood of a direct impact.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 434 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Split flow pattern continues to dominate with main jet streak
situated across Canada with cutoff low moving across northern CA.
Broad cyclonic flow encompasses the desert southwest with a weak
but persistent ridge axis over the Rockies.

This afternoon, the Panhandles flow aloft is northwesterly with
ridge axis just upstream of the area. A subtle shortwave can be
seen in the water vapor imagery over southwest Nebraska, with a
weak trough extending south into the northwestern Panhandles. This
feature will help keep heights near neutral this afternoon and
help offset the subsidence that is increasing from approaching
ridge. At the surface, an outflow boundary moved west across the
area this morning but has almost mixed out this afternoon with
very little CIN based on latest mesoanalysis. MLCAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg is also present with dewpoints in the 50s across the western
zones to near 60 in the central and eastern zones. A storm or two
is trying to push off the higher elevations of the Raton Mesa at
this time. Shear looks fairly marginal today mainly due to the
lack of decent mid-level flow. However, directional shear is
noted with veering throughout the vertical column (south winds
near the surface to northwest flow at 500mb). Thus, a strong storm
can't be ruled out this afternoon mainly before day time heating
is lost. The threat may be limited by anvil layer winds moving
over the inflow regions of storms given the northwest flow aloft
and slow storm motion.

Conditions look more favorable Thursday as the dryline sharpens
and the upper low in the western CONUS starts pushing east. Flow
aloft will transition from northwesterly to southwesterly with
stronger mid-level flow over spreading the Panhandles by Thursday
evening. A lee surface low should develop in the Raton Mesa of
southeast CO which will increase low level convergence along the
dryline. Meanwhile, a more pronounced shortwave develops in the
wake of the ridge, helping to provide some upper dynamic support
by mid to late afternoon. Models agree fairly well that the
dryline will be around or even west of the Amarillo to Guymon line
by the time convection initiates, with little CIN to prevent
initiation. Model sounding just along and west of the dryline
exhibit more inverted-V type profiles (LCLs around 2000m) but
moistures increases east of the dryline helping to reduce LCLs
perhaps as low as 1200m. SBCAPE just east of the dryline looks
very impressive with upwards of 4000 J/kg advertised on GFS/NAM
deterministic models given dew point values in the low 60s. Shear
looks better than today, with increased low level flow that is
maximized around sunset with the low level jet. Mostly speed shear
exist above 500mb. Overall, conditions should support severe
thunderstorms with very large hail perhaps as large as baseballs
and strong winds, this is especially true with any discrete
supercell. Low level SRH does increase towards the evening, so an
isolated tornado can't be ruled out where storms encounter better
moisture east of the dryline as the low level jet strengthens.

The upper low continues it track east on Friday then begins to
stall as an open wave over the Rocky Mountains. The dryline pushes
further east with a stronger cap being suggested in the guidance.
Storm initiation looks less likely, but did include slight pops
for the eastern Panhandles. Any storm would again have plenty of
instability and modest shear to work with, so an isolated severe
storm is possible. A cold front is progged to move through the
area Saturday. Model to model consistency is reasonable based on
the 12z runs today, which suggest the front will move through most
of the area by Saturday evening. That being said, being that the
synoptic push for this is limited to a developing shortwave over
the central Plains, not completely convinced that this front
won't stall in the area providing forcing for additional storms
over the weekend.

Ward

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible west of the dryline
Thursday for the far western Panhandles. Thunderstorm developing
along the dryline may initially be high-based and produce low
precip, thus dry lightning can't be ruled out in the western
Panhandles. Elevated to critical conditions are possible Friday
afternoon for the far western Panhandles with drier conditions and
breezy southwest winds. Haines index of 5 to 6 can be expected
both days.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  88  62  93  58 /  20  50  50  10  10
Beaver OK                  63  88  67  93  62 /  20  60  60  20  20
Boise City OK              58  90  59  90  56 /  10  20  10  10  10
Borger TX                  63  89  64  94  61 /  20  50  50  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              61  92  63  94  56 /  20  30  30  10  10
Canyon TX                  60  90  62  93  57 /  20  40  40  10  10
Clarendon TX               63  87  63  92  62 /  20  50  50  20  10
Dalhart TX                 57  90  60  91  55 /  20  20  20  10  10
Guymon OK                  61  89  63  93  59 /  20  50  50  10  10
Hereford TX                59  91  62  93  57 /  20  30  30  10  10
Lipscomb TX                64  87  66  92  64 /  20  50  50  20  20
Pampa TX                   62  85  63  91  60 /  20  60  60  20  10
Shamrock TX                64  87  66  92  64 /  10  40  50  20  20
Wellington TX              65  89  67  94  66 /  10  40  50  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

03/36

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
443 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-170945-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
443 PM CDT Wed May 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening across portions
of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Any storms that develop
could become strong to marginally severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Tuesday across
much of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Some storms that
develop will have the potential to become strong to severe,
especially Thursday afternoon and evening.

Elevated fire weather condition are possible Thursday afternoon
across the far western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Elevated to
critical conditions are possible in the western Panhandles Friday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Thursday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
531 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

TXZ009-162300-
Roberts TX-
531 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTS COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 531 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Codman, or 10 miles west of Miami, moving east at
15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Codman and Lora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 10054 3562 10071 3566 10088 3584 10088
      3589 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 277DEG 14KT 3574 10081

Ward

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
543 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

OKZ001-TXZ001-162330-
Cimarron OK-Dallam TX-
543 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CIMARRON AND NORTH
CENTRAL DALLAM COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Felt, or 17 miles southwest of Boise City, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Felt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3662 10288 3669 10276 3646 10232 3638 10274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 315DEG 9KT 3660 10277

Ward

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
617 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             5 W MIAMI               35.69N 100.73W
05/16/2018  M1.75 INCH       ROBERTS            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800055

TLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
619 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             1 E FELT                36.57N 102.76W
05/16/2018  E1.25 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER NETWORK REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800056

WARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
628 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     HAIL             2 NNW FELT              36.60N 102.79W
05/16/2018  E1.25 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   STORM CHASER

            SPOTTER NETWORK REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800057

WARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
637 PM CDT WED MAY 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             4 NE CODMAN             35.68N 100.72W
05/16/2018  E1.50 INCH       ROBERTS            TX   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800058

WARD