Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
700 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

.AVIATION...
Southerly winds will continue at DHT and AMA through the night.
Southeast winds at GUY should swing around to more southerly after
midnight. Confidence is not high on whether the cold front will
move back across GUY again Monday morning or not. Winds should
remain under 15 knots regardless, then they should increase in the
afternoon to around 15 knots. Skies are expected to remain VFR
with any showers or thunderstorms to the east of the TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 332 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Although a stubborn stationary front will have a hard time making
up its mind whether it wants to be a cold front or warm front from
day to day throughout the forecast period with weak steering flow
aloft, that pesky front will bring us several chances of rainfall
throughout the week, so thats always good to see! Except that
forecasting temperatures along the front based off where it
decides to set up, especially across the northern Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles will be tricky, as short term numerical data
are not in accord.

Current observations show temperatures well into the 90s across
the region with low Tds to the west and good low level moisture
and southerly flow with Tds in the 50s and 60s to the east ahead
of the dryline with a Cu field already trying to develop across
eastern areas and in the Texas south plains. Across the eastern
Panhandles, we will have the best chances of seeing strong and
severe thunderstorms likely starting after 21Z through the late
evening hours. Latest meso-analysis is showing good SBCAPE of
2500-4000 J/kg across the eastern Panhandles with mid level lapse
rates above 8 C/km. However, effective shear with these storms
are quite limited and with its uni-directional profile, linear
convection is expected overtime, especially going into the early
evening hours. Individual cells should develop along a line at
first which can produce hail size up to golf ball size as storms
further develop. Large hail may continue into the evening hours,
with the primary threat shifting to damaging winds as a forward
propagating complex of storms are expected, especially as we lose
daytime heating. Can not rule out a wet microburst potential as
inverted-V soundings are present which may mix down stronger winds
in local downdraft maxima in a PWAT environment of 1.0-1.3 inch
environment. In-conjunction with weak surface flow, training of
storms may lead to some flooding potential. Low temperatures this
evening as most of our region is displaced south of the stationary
front will remain quite warm in the low to mid 60s.

As previously mentioned, throughout the remainder of the
forecast, the positioning of the front will make temperatures
challenging to forecast throughout the period. Ahead of the front,
temperatures will remain above average and with southeasterly
flow ahead of the dryline across the central and western
Panhandles, depending on the day, best chances of diurnal
thunderstorms continue to be across the eastern Panhandles. Some
of the latest 13/12Z model and probabilistic data are showing the
front progressing into the southern parts of the TX Panhandle by
Tuesday afternoon, so this may be the only day of the week with
temperatures back to near average if it pans out. As a result,
more widespread precipitation chances will exist across the
Panhandles. Wednesday through the end of the forecast period shows
the front drifting back north and parking over the northern
combined Panhandles once again with areas ahead of the dryline in
the east with the best chances of diurnal precipitation. As we
approach the coming weekend, mid level winds will be stronger and
as an upper level disturbance approaches from the Four Corners
region, better chances of widespread precipitation with more
favorable upper level dynamics are possible. High temperatures
will remain above average.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected into the
evening hours across the western Panhandles as low RH values
between 8-15% along with winds 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH
are expected.

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the far
western Panhandles tomorrow and again on Friday and Saturday.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...Oldham.

OK...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Cimarron.

&&

15/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
340 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-141100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
340 PM CDT Sun May 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today
across western portions of the Panhandles from noon until 9 pm
this evening.

Thunderstorms will be possible today across eastern portions of
the combined Panhandles. Some storms may be strong to severe with
hail and strong winds the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Saturday across
parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. If storms develop,
they will have the potential to become strong to marginally
severe, with strong winds and hail the primary hazards.

Elevated Fire Weather conditions may develop across the western
Panhandles Monday, Friday, and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated fire weather conditions Monday, Friday, and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
702 PM CDT SUN MAY 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             6 NE BALKO              36.69N 100.60W
05/13/2018  M1.75 INCH       BEAVER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800017

15

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