Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
402 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...

The overall synoptic pattern will remain similar for much of the
week with an anomalously strong 597dm h5 ridge centered over the Mid-
Atlantic states holding firm.  While this ridge will control much of
the pattern, subtle nuances in western upper troughing and what
seems like inevitable tropical development will eventually play a
part in our weather.  Overall...weak but moist southwesterly upr
flow with embedded disturbances will keep off and on rain chances in
our area through much of the week. After initially dry-ish low
levels, the boundary layer will moisten tonight and stay pretty
moist through the week with PWATs predominately in the 1.25-1.75"
range. Outside of a few brief periods where shear could increase to
the point of sustaining multicell/brief supercellular convection,
much of the activity this next week will stay sub-severe with heavy
rain the greatest threat.

Tonight through Sunday night...The best chances for precip in this
period look to be this evening in the western TX Panhandle.  Sunday
has a sneaky chance to be dry with sunshine in the afternoon and
lowered precip chances during the day to account.  Storms may roll
in again in the evening from the west.

Monday through Friday...Off and on storm chances will continue. Of
course, given propensity of storms to fire along convectively
modulated surfaces boundaries, exact timing and location is near
impossible to determine at this point. If Tuesday morning starts out
dry and sunny, the Tue afternoon storm threat could be a little more
robust as indications of moderate instability and a bit more flow
aloft/wind shear could lead to a better chance of stronger storms
than in some of the other periods. Though rain chances remain,
forecast confidence decreases late in the week as a potential
tropical system may begin to affect south Texas which could
indirectly impact our weather.

Simpson
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  87  63  83  62 /  60  40  60  40  70
Beaver OK                  67  89  64  85  64 /  50  50  60  50  50
Boise City OK              60  85  59  82  59 /  70  20  60  40  50
Borger TX                  68  90  66  87  66 /  60  30  60  40  60
Boys Ranch TX              64  90  63  85  62 /  70  30  60  40  60
Canyon TX                  63  87  62  84  62 /  60  40  60  40  70
Clarendon TX               68  89  66  84  65 /  30  50  50  50  70
Dalhart TX                 60  87  59  83  59 /  70  20  60  40  50
Guymon OK                  63  89  62  85  62 /  70  30  50  40  50
Hereford TX                63  86  62  82  62 /  60  40  60  40  70
Lipscomb TX                70  89  66  86  66 /  30  50  50  40  60
Pampa TX                   66  87  64  84  64 /  40  40  50  40  70
Shamrock TX                69  91  66  86  65 /  20  50  50  50  60
Wellington TX              69  92  66  87  65 /  20  50  50  50  60

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

2/9

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
346 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-021200-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
346 PM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across mainly the western
Panhandles tonight. A few storms may become strong to marginally
severe, with gusty winds and heavy rain the main hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Off and on showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday through
Friday across the Panhandles. Some storms that develop will have
the potential to become strong with gusty winds, small hail, and
heavy rain the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
430 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

TXZ016-012215-
Deaf Smith TX-
430 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 430 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Glenrio to 3 miles
northwest of Rhea. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Glenrio and Bootleg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows. Do not drive into areas where blowing dust restricts
visibility.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 10304 3518 10275 3476 10251 3475 10251
      3475 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 229DEG 31KT 3508 10313 3471 10298

Simpson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
539 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

TXZ016-012315-
Deaf Smith TX-
539 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Wildorado, or 12 miles southeast of Vega, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hereford and Dawn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter immediately inside a sturdy structure and stay away
from windows. Do not drive into areas where blowing dust restricts
visibility.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 10250 3519 10242 3518 10217 3475 10217
      3475 10241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 229DEG 30KT 3509 10230

Simpson

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