Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the
Guymon TAF site between 03Z and 08Z Wednesday and may impact the
Dalhart TAF as well, however confidence too low to mention at this
time. Some MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with strong and
erratic winds may accompany the thunderstorms. Southerly winds 10
to 20 knots at the Amarillo TAF site increasing to 15 to 25 knots
with gusts near 30 knots after 14Z to 16Z Wednesday. Southerly
winds 10 to 20 knots at the Dalhart TAF site are expected to
become east to northeast 5 to 15 knots after 03Z to 05Z Wednesday
and then become southerly again 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30
knots after 14Z to 16Z Wednesday. Easterly to northeasterly winds
5 to 15 knots at the Guymon TAF site is expected to become
southerly 10 to 20 knots with possible gusts near 25 knots after
14Z to 16Z Wednesday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 442 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Main items of interest for this forecast package continue to include
the rain chances this evening through Thursday night (dry
thereafter), as well as warmer (above normal) temperatures basically
Thursday onward.

CAPE is less than it was 24 hours ago. Instability peaks late this
afternoon into early evening but then diminishes quickly thereafter
for a small window of opportunity for severe weather. Any storms
that continue into the evening hours will have ample 0-6km bulk
shear, so a couple storms may have strong updrafts that could
produce large hail. Otherwise, main threat will be strong wind
speeds tonight. Forecast soundings are indicating LCL heights
lowering overnight as well, and there is some turning in the lower
levels during the onset of convection. In other words, there is a
small chance for a brief tornado for mainly Cimarron county to
maybe Dallam and/or Texas counties. This window is pretty small
and will likely be between 8pm and 11pm. In reality though, the
main threats for tonight will be hail and damaging wind speeds
mainly between 8pm and 2am. Best chances for rain will be across
the Oklahoma Panhandle, but some storms may sag south and pass
over northern portions of the Texas Panhandle.

In an almost repeat pattern, thunderstorms will be possible across
nearly the same area Wednesday/Wednesday night, with an identical
threat scenario of strong wind speeds and hail for mainly northern
portions of the forecast area.

Other story will be the warm temperatures to end the month. Above
normal temperatures are expected across the Panhandles, or in
other words most areas will be in the mid to upper 90s Thursday
onward.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-220900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms expected tonight across mainly northern
portions of the outlook area. Wind and hail will be the primary
threats with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another round of strong to possibly severe storms across central
and northern portions of the Panhandles Wednesday into Wednesday
night.

Thunderstorm chances continue Thursday into Thursday night as
well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Guerrero

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
804 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2018

OKZ001-002-TXZ001-220145-
Cimarron OK-Texas OK-Dallam TX-
804 PM CDT TUE AUG 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...CIMARRON AND
NORTHWESTERN DALLAM COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 803 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles east of Keyes to 5 miles northwest of
Seneca. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Boise City, Keyes, Eva, Kenton, Wheeless, Black Mesa Park, Felt,
Griggs and Sturgis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10185 3663 10181 3641 10304 3650 10304
      3650 10300 3700 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 308DEG 21KT 3686 10208 3669 10320

Rutt