Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1011 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.UPDATE...
Update for issuance of Severe Thunderstorm Watch for northeast and
eastern sections.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 729 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018/

UPDATE...
Updated pops for storm potential in the south due to the left over
MCV. This evening's sounding showed potential for these storms to
become severe with hail and winds as the main threats.

Beat

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected initially for the 00Z TAF period.
TEMPO group has been added for KGUY/KDHT starting around 02Z
through 06Z for thunderstorms that are expected to move over the
TAF sites where MVFR and perhaps at time IFR conditions are
expected. If thunderstorms hold together, they should make it
towards KAMA around 09/10Z time frame. Once the main showers and
thunderstorms exit the TAF sites locations, some residual low
cigs/BR conditions may linger until sunrise before eroding away
providing additional brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Behind the cold
front that will move through all TAF sites before 12Z Monday,
winds will shift from southerly to northeasterly at 10-15 kts and
continue throughout remainder of the TAF period. After 12Z,
besides some low and mid cigs, heights will remain at VFR levels
throughout remainder of TAf period.

Meccariello

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 452 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018/

DISCUSSION...

Main items of interest continue to be thunderstorm chances. Strong
to severe storms will be possible tonight, and likely our biggest
concern for severe weather over the next 7 days. Some uncertainty
with rain chances towards the end of next week, but overall the only
periods without rainfall chances are Tuesday and Friday.

In the upper levels, high pressure centered over southwestern parts
of the CONUS should remain stagnant through next week with a trough
over eastern parts of the CONUS. This will keep us in northwesterly
flow aloft through the majority of the forecast package. High
pressure is expected broaden out as the east coast trough weakens,
and this will give us more of a northerly flow aloft Thursday
night timeframe. This outcome should cut off our chances for
rainfall heading into August (or at least weaken our chances),
minus some isolated spotty areas. For example, we have rain
chances across the west Friday night and Saturday, but confidence
in these chances is very low at this time.

Focus for upper level energy tonight is again across northern parts
of the forecast area, and hence have the highest chance for rainfall
across the Oklahoma Panhandle and northern/northeastern parts of the
Texas Panhandle. High precipitable water values, steep lapse rates,
0-6km bulk shear of 30-50 knots, and boundary\front should allow for
widespread convection. Slower moving storms around 25 mph will
further result in heavy rainfall tonight. There are signs of a
mid-level cap in place which could inhibit storms initially, but
this cap is anticipated to break this evening. Timing will
generally be near sunset across the north, moving southeast
through the overnight hours through to sunrise. Isolated severe
weather will be possible tonight, and the main threats will be
wind and heavy rain, which could result in localized flooding or
flash flooding. There is a *small* chance for quick spin-ups of
the weaker tornado variety tonight (mainly northeastern parts of
the forecast area), but this will be in rare form tonight as its
generally very rare (not impossible) to get tornadoes overnight in
this part of the country. Keep in mind the threats are generally
strong/severe wind gusts and heavy rainfall potential tonight.
Also, with last nights convection, the atmosphere worked itself
over pretty well, and one concern is we will not be able to
recover, which would result in most of the convection to the north
and east of the forecast area.

In the wake of the air mass change, highs on Monday will be the
coolest of the forecast package. Mid 70s to low 80s are anticipated
across much of central and northern parts of the forecast area.
Showers could very well be scattered across the Panhandles through
most of the day Monday as well, lingering around southwestern
portions of the area through the early evening hours.

Chances for thunderstorms nearly every day going forward except
Tuesday and Friday, albeit confidence is pretty low Thursday onward
for rain chances. It will be tough to discern this far out any
embedded energy riding around the northern to eastern periphery of
the ridge which could result in rain chances. Not very confident
in rainfall actually occurring after Wed night, but had to account
for the small chances.

Guerrero

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

29/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
728 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-301230-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
728 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected tonight across the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles. Some storms may become severe, with damaging winds
and hail the primary hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall may
accompany the strongest storms, which could lead to localized
flooding or flash flooding. An isolated tornado could be possible
as well along the leading edge of the line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Besides Tuesday and Friday, nearly every period going forward has
thunderstorm chances. A few storms will have the potential to
become strong to marginally severe at times with damaging winds
and hail the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
727 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

TXZ018-300100-
Armstrong TX-
727 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARMSTRONG COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 727 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Wayside, or 20 miles north of Silverton, moving east at
15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Armstrong County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 10144 3491 10109 3475 10109 3475 10144
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 269DEG 12KT 3477 10136

LFM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
821 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARENDON               34.94N 100.89W
07/29/2018                   DONLEY             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE KNOCKED DOWN ON POWER LINE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800410

BEAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
824 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW CLARENDON         34.92N 100.93W
07/29/2018  M52 MPH          DONLEY             TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800411

BEAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
931 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

OKZ001-300300-
Cimarron OK-
931 PM CDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CIMARRON COUNTY UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

At 930 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kenton, or 29 miles west of Boise City, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kenton, Wheeless, Black Mesa Park and Felt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10254 3650 10265 3650 10300 3700 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 300DEG 35KT 3686 10301

LFM