Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1003 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.UPDATE...Quick update was done to the grids to bring trends in
line with approaching cold front and line of thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms should arrive in the next hour or two in the
Oklahoma Panhandle, and be across the remainder of the combined
Panhandles through sunrise Thursday. Enough instability remains in
place that these storms could be strong to marginally severe, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 60 MPH possible. In
addition, despite increasing forward speed with the front, these
storms are not moving all that quick. Heavy downpours and
localized flooding will be possible with these storms, especially
if the frontal boundary slows down or stalls in the area.

Bieda

&&

.AVIATION...Previous Discussion...00Z TAFs...VFR condition with
southerly winds BTWN 10 to 20 kts will continue through about
sunset. Thunderstorms developing in Colorado and Kansas will sag
towards the south- southeast in association with a cold front.
Timing of thunderstorm impacts will be greatly dependent on
development, and have converted PROB30 to TEMPO groups to account
for TSRA with CIG AOA 5k ft AGL. Confidence is there that
thunderstorms will occur, and some amendments may be needed to
adjust timing or make conditions prevailing. For now, have gone
with KGUY being impacted AFT 26/03Z, KDHT AFT 26/04Z and KAMA AFT
26/06Z based upon latest hi- res guidance. The cold front could
stall near KAMA, with further redevelopment possible around
26/12Z. Otherwise, winds will be out of the north around 5 to 15
kts, with low CIG around sunrise possible at KGUY and KDHT. As a
side note, the KDHT ASOS is down until further notice.

Bieda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  67  86  66  85 /  10  60  50  40  30
Beaver OK                  97  67  86  67  86 /   5  80  40  20  30
Boise City OK              95  63  82  63  85 /  20  80  30  40  30
Borger TX                  97  69  89  69  88 /  10  60  40  40  30
Boys Ranch TX              96  66  88  67  88 /  10  60  40  40  30
Canyon TX                  94  66  87  66  86 /  10  60  50  40  30
Clarendon TX               95  69  89  67  88 /   5  50  50  50  20
Dalhart TX                 95  62  85  62  86 /  20  80  30  30  30
Guymon OK                  97  64  85  65  86 /  10  80  40  20  30
Hereford TX                93  67  85  66  86 /  10  50  60  40  30
Lipscomb TX                96  68  87  68  86 /   5  70  40  40  30
Pampa TX                   94  67  87  65  86 /   5  60  40  40  20
Shamrock TX                96  69  90  70  88 /   5  50  40  40  20
Wellington TX              97  70  92  70  90 /   5  40  40  40  20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge will remain anchored over the western third of
the U.S. and an upper level trough will remain over the eastern U.S.
through this forecast. This will put the Panhandles in a northwest
flow aloft. This northwest flow aloft will help to bring the daily
mountain convection this way. There will also be embedded upper
level short wave troughs that will also enhance showers and
thunderstorms from time to time. Therefore, have continued with the
idea of some chance of showers and thunderstorms everyday through
this forecast.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage may be a little greater tonight as
compared to the last couple as a cold front and an associated short
wave trough move southward across the Panhandles.  Outside of
tonight it will be tough to time each one of these short wave
troughs exactly through this forecast. However, the models have been
consistent on hinting that a stronger short wave trough may move
through Sunday night and this may hook up with an upslope flow on
the surface to increase the shower and thunderstorm activity.

High temperatures are expected to be below normal through this
forecast except for Saturday where we may warm above normal ahead
the cold front.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

98/36

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1010 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-261515-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1010 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandles. A storm or two
may become severe with damaging winds and large hail the main
threats. In addition, heavy rainfall may accompany the strongest
storms, which could lead to localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across most of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles through Tuesday. Some storms will have the
potential to become strong to severe at times with damaging winds
and hail the primary hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall may lead
to localized flooding or flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.