Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
902 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Pops adjusted over the next 12 hours to account for storms moving
through the Panhandles tonight. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in
effect until 4AM CDT for the entire Panhandles. Strong damaging
winds and large hail will be the main threats, with brief spin up
tornadoes possible.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
Mostly VFR conditions for the TAF period, but MVFR/IFR will not be
ruled out, as a cold front will move across the Panhandles
starting around 1-2z. This will likely be supplemented with a
line of storms. So expect a surge of north winds and -TSRA TEMPO
groups have been noted for the thunderstorm potential. Will make
amendments as needed if the frontal system speeds up/slows down.
After the front moves through, VFR conditions expected to occur at
all sites, for the remainder of the period. Winds will diminish
to less than 15kts after 09z. Scattered mid and high clouds will
give way to clear skies at the end of the forecast period. The
only thing to watch, will be if IFR cigs hold a little longer due
to excessive rainfall and significant moistening of the lowest
levels. Again, will make amendments if necessary for this outcome.

Weber

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 341 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
None of the models today have depicted how things have gone so
far, so the forecast is pretty low confidence. Convection this
morning in the northeast and in OK has pushed a strong outflow
boundary through the area. This has created cloud cover and cool
east winds that have severely hampered severe threats for tonight.
The area is still recovering with some places such as Dalhart
still having low clouds, and temps across the area are only in the
low 70s to low 80s in the far south. A special 19Z sounding has
the area still capped. The only CAM that has any indication of
convection in the appropriate location in OK is the 15Z HRRR. If
it verifies, then the front that is progged to push into the
Panhandles tonight will bring a line of convection with it from
CO. Think that there could be some slight chance for storms with
the front to have some severe hail or winds but the tornado
threat is quite diminished. The front is likely to bring some
gusty winds with it.

The remainder of the period is far more uneventful as the mid
level closed low in eastern WY/western SD travels slowly into NE
and high pressure builds into the southern US through the week.
This will leave the Panhandles in dry and warm conditions. By the
end of the week, the next long wave upper level trough pushes
onshore in the west and will swing the area into southwest flow.
The weekend will see the next round of showers and thunderstorms
possible.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                61  87  68  99  72 /  80   5  10  10   5
Beaver OK                  63  86  67 100  73 /  80   5   5   5   5
Boise City OK              54  86  65  99  70 / 100   0   5   5   0
Borger TX                  62  88  70 101  75 /  80   5  10   5   5
Boys Ranch TX              61  89  69 101  72 /  60   5  10   5   5
Canyon TX                  63  88  68  99  72 /  80   5  10  10   5
Clarendon TX               64  87  69  98  73 /  80  10  10   5   5
Dalhart TX                 56  87  65 100  69 /  70   0  10   5   0
Guymon OK                  59  87  67 101  72 /  90   5  10   5   0
Hereford TX                63  88  68  98  70 /  60   5  10   5   5
Lipscomb TX                63  86  68  99  74 /  80  10   5   5   5
Pampa TX                   61  85  67  97  73 /  80   5  10  10   5
Shamrock TX                64  87  70  98  75 /  80  10  10   5   5
Wellington TX              65  89  72 100  76 /  80  10  10   5   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

89/16

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
906 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-251415-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
906 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for the entire Panhandle until
4 AM CDT. Strong damaging winds and large hail, with brief spin up
tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will be possible across the portions of the Combined
Panhandles Friday evening through Saturday. These storms are not
expected to become severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation likely tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1105 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 W SLAPOUT             36.60N 100.26W
06/24/2018  M58 MPH          BEAVER             OK   MESONET

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800349

BEAT

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