Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1220 AM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 06Z TAF period. VCTS
conditions currently at KDHT/KGUY will be expected over the first
one to three hours of the TAF period with the greatest chances at
those TAF sites. Will have to monitor to see if they move south
toward KAMA with amendments that maybe needed. South to
southwesterly winds will pickup in the late morning hours
sustained between 15-20 kts with higher gusts possible.
Thunderstorms are introduced to the forecast once again starting
around 15-16Z, especially at KDHT/KGUY with southeast progression
toward KAMA after 18Z possible. Thunderstorms should clear out as
we go past 00Z towards the end of the TAF period with varying
winds shifts as a low pressure system moves over the region. With
the exception of a thunderstorm passing over a TAF site, cigs
should remain VFR.

Meccariello

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 647 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS...
VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the TAF period.
KAMA and KDHT may see VCTS and -TSRA chances in the next 6 hours
with possible MVFR cig/vis. Storms should only last an hour or two
at the sites and exit southeast. Only going with VCSH for KGUY as
confidence is not high enough for VCTS 6 hours out. It's possible
that the storms will be south of the terminal and may miss KGUY
completely. Will make amendments as necessary. In addition have
gone with a PROB30 group for all sites at 21Z as tomorrows
northwest flow has a chance for storms to quickly move through the
terminals. KAMA may be on the lower end threat, and could be
closer to 23/00z before storms hit, but still making note of the
chance for now. Winds look to be mainly out of the south southwest
10 to 15 kts, with higher gusts. After 18z, expect winds to be in
the 15 to 20 kt range with gusts 25 to 30 kts.

Weber

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 PM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A northwesterly flow aloft will prevail across the Panhandles
through Friday and Saturday as an upper high builds over the
southwestern states. One shortwave trough will track south and
east across the forecast area this evening and overnight tonight
with a thunderstorm complex pushing across the Panhandles from
northwest to southeast by mid to late evening and through the
overnight hours tonight. Convection expected to linger Friday
morning mainly across the eastern portions of the forecast area.
Another shortwave trough will track mainly over the northern
Panhandles by Friday evening and overnight Friday night bringing
another round of convection to mainly the northern and eastern
portions of the forecast area Friday evening and overnight Friday
night. A cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles
Friday and may become quasi-stationary across the southeastern
Texas Panhandle or just south of the forecast area on Saturday.
The frontal boundary is then forecast to lift northward Sunday as
a warm front before stalling out again early next week across the
Panhandles. Continued chances for convection will be the rule
through early and middle of next week before drier conditions
prevail late next week.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

29/3

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
250 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

TXZ009-010-220830-
Hemphill TX-Roberts TX-
250 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROBERTS AND WESTERN HEMPHILL
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 250 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Codman, or 9 miles west of Miami, moving east at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Codman and Lora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3562 10040 3562 10096 3596 10099 3597 10040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0750Z 256DEG 28KT 3575 10081

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
307 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

TXZ001-002-006-007-220830-
Hartley TX-Sherman TX-Dallam TX-Moore TX-
307 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHERMAN...
SOUTHEASTERN DALLAM...NORTHWESTERN MOORE AND NORTHEASTERN HARTLEY
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

At 306 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Cactus, or 17 miles northwest of Dumas, moving east at
30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dumas, Cactus and Sunray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 10234 3615 10226 3609 10180 3578 10187
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 282DEG 25KT 3603 10220

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
327 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

OKZ003-TXZ004-005-009-010-014-015-220930-
Beaver OK-Hemphill TX-Gray TX-Wheeler TX-Ochiltree TX-Roberts TX-
Lipscomb TX-
327 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BEAVER...LIPSCOMB...
NORTHERN WHEELER...NORTHEASTERN GRAY...EASTERN ROBERTS...HEMPHILL AND
EASTERN OCHILTREE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

At 327 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southeast of Elmwood to 7 miles
northwest of New Mobeetie. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lipscomb, Canadian, Miami, Briscoe, Booker, Follett, Higgins,
Darrouzett, Wolf Creek Park, Elmwood, New Mobeetie, Allison, Glazier,
Lake Marvin, Lora, Slapout, Codman, Balko and Mobeetie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 10000 3552 10083 3668 10075 3671 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0827Z 278DEG 23KT 3658 10048 3562 10050

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
331 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

TXZ003-004-007>009-013-014-220915-
Gray TX-Hutchinson TX-Ochiltree TX-Roberts TX-Hansford TX-Carson TX-
Moore TX-
331 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CARSON...HUTCHINSON...
NORTHWESTERN GRAY...SOUTHEASTERN HANSFORD...WESTERN ROBERTS...
SOUTHWESTERN OCHILTREE AND SOUTHEASTERN MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM
CDT...

At 331 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 17 miles southeast of Spearman to 4 miles west
of Sanford. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pampa, Borger, Fritch, Stinnett, Skellytown, Sanford, Four Way,
Kingsmill, Lake Meredith and Pringle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3542 10083 3561 10162 3562 10162 3562 10168
      3569 10199 3618 10123 3617 10076
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 285DEG 39KT 3602 10097 3573 10160

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
332 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

TXZ007-008-220900-
Hutchinson TX-Moore TX-
332 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON AND
NORTHWESTERN MOORE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

At 332 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dumas, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dumas, Cactus and Sunray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 10206 3606 10194 3600 10149 3571 10194
      3585 10216 3591 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0832Z 294DEG 29KT 3589 10198

LFM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
342 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

TXZ001-006-220915-
Hartley TX-Dallam TX-
342 AM CDT FRI JUN 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DALLAM AND
NORTHEASTERN HARTLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 415 AM CDT...

At 341 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Dalhart, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dalhart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 10252 3616 10216 3605 10216 3590 10230
      3614 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0841Z 302DEG 24KT 3619 10251

LFM