Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
923 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018

.UPDATE...

Did quick update to clear SW part of the watch and extend the
remainder of it until 11 pm. Jet has generated new SVR storms
behind main action in Boise City.

MJG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 712 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018/

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will impact GUY in next few hours. Some of these
have been severe. Appears they have avoided DHT and vertainly are
not expected to impact AMA. Generally expect IFR through the
period, although there is a slight chance for brief MVFR vsbys
around sunrise.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 503 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018/

.Severe thunderstorm Watch for northern Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles through 10 pm...

DISCUSSION...

Weak frontal boundary extends east across the southern TX
Panhandle from SFC low pressure located in the far SW TX
Panhandle. This boundary separates much drier air to the south
from modified airmass to the north with ERLY flow and higher
moisture content. ML Cape values just north of the boundary ranged
from 1500 to 2000 J/KG at 4pm. Turning in the lowest levels in
little to none and 0-1 km helicity is negligible. However deep
layer shear is solid and the effective bulk shear was around 45
on average at 4 pm. Thunderstorms have already begun forming in
the mountain areas in NE NM where cap has eroded. The nose of a
weak jet max moving into the area is also aiding in initiation.
The most favored area associated with the jet impulse will move
across the OK Panhandle through evening. H7 theta-e pool is also
shown by models moving across the area in advance of weak H7
disturbance with best theta-e advection also shown across the
northern 1/3 to 2/3s of the CWA this evening. Given this,
continue to show highest POPs (40-60%) across the far north,
however CAMs have trended south with SRN extent of the convection
and have pulled POPs a bit south in this package to just include
the AMA area. Indication is also that after a brief period with
discrete cells, storms may congeal into an MCS as they move across
the area. Convective parameters mentioned above all suggest
another busy evening with severe thunderstorm potential. SPC has
issued a SVR TSTM Watch until 10 PM for the OK Panhandle and the
northern 2 Texas Panhandle COs. Wind and hail are main threats,
possibly favoring wind as the event unfolds. Can't rule out a
brief TOR, but high LCLs will be limiting factor as they have been
all week to sustaining tornadoes.

An upper ridge will build over the area from the south through
early Friday. This will provide some of hottest temps of the year
by Friday, possibly near record levels some locations. That said,
am wondering if recent rainfall will impact highs some locations
(obviously not problem in AMA). Models show good H7 theta-e
advection into SE areas on Friday east of a dryline, but
dewpoints are not impressive. This could lead to some very high
based storms as a disturbance rides around the ridge late in the
day. Main threat if this happens would be from microburst winds
due to strong inverted V sounding profiles.

The ridge pushes SE slightly over the weekend, opening the door to
disturbances inducing storms Saturday night through Monday as
favorable theta-e progs continue. Noted the instability currently
is not progged to be very impressive. Capped POPs at 30% for now
given some model disagreement in strength of S/WVs and how much a
trough in the SW US is able to weaken the ridge. Temps will cool
some SAT as the ridge weakens, then a cold front will provide
more significant cooling Sunday (hence the limited cape mentioned
above). Influence of the front will be short lived and temps will
recover Monday and especially Tuesday as the ridge builds north
once again.

Fire Weather...

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across the far western
Panhandles Thursday however recent rainfall is expected to mitigate
the threat. Elevated to critical conditions are possible in the northwest
half of the area on Friday (west of dry line) mainly in areas
that have had much less recent rainfall in the last few weeks,
such as the southwest Panhandles.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

MJG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
422 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-302300-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
422 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across the Oklahoma Panhandle and the
northern and eastern Texas Panhandle. Some storms may become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat
this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Friday, Sunday and Monday. Storms
reaching severe criteria remain low at this time.

Heat at or above 105 degrees is possible on Thursday and Friday
for many areas across the region. A Heat Advisory may be needed.

Elevated fire weather conditions across parts of the far western
Panhandles are possible on Thursday and parts of the western and
central Panhandles on Friday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated fire weather conditions Thursday, Friday, and Tuesday.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
955 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018

OKZ001-002-310345-
Cimarron OK-Texas OK-
955 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TEXAS AND EAST CENTRAL
CIMARRON COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 955 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Griggs, or 21 miles south of Elkhart, moving east
at 40 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goodwell, Eva, Hough and Sturgis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3650 10154 3659 10207 3690 10222 3699 10202
      3700 10176 3699 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 271DEG 34KT 3671 10203

Bieda

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1000 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             BOISE CITY              36.73N 102.51W
05/30/2018  E1.00 INCH       CIMARRON           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800212

MJG