Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
634 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites except in and
near showers and thunderstorms where MVFR conditions will be
possible between 00Z and 04Z Tuesday. Southeast and south winds 15
to 25 knots with gusts to near 30 and 35 knots will be possible
and then winds decreasing to 10 to 20 knots after 04Z to 08Z
Tuesday. Winds at the Guymon and Dalhart TAF sites are expected to
become north and northeast 5 to 15 knots after 04Z to 08Z Tuesday
and then becoming southwest and west after 14Z to 20Z Tuesday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Expecting storms today across the area and a severe thunderstorm
watch has already been issued. Visible satellite is showing a cu
field forming in the northwest and north central Panhandles.
Storms are expected to form along and ahead of the dryline that is
currently in eastern New Mexico and creeping into the far western
corner of Cimarron County. Bulk shear is around 30 to 40 kts and
soundings show 1200 to 2500 J of surfaced based CAPE with a
veering profile. This will allow for storms to be supercellular.
CAMs are showing discrete cells that may become more of a broken
line as the evening progresses. Large hail up to 2 inches or so
and damaging winds will be the main threats. LCL levels are
around 9000ft in the south and around 6000ft in the north. This
combined with 0-1km helicity in the north of 100-300 m squared per
s squared will also bring a window tonight, especially in the
north, for an isolated tornado or two. Storms will likely start
around 21Z and be out of the area by around 04Z. Any storms that
linger over an area may produce some localized flooding.

The mid level short wave responsible for the storms tonight will
push east and another will replace it tomorrow but further north
and keep storms mostly in the northeast corner of the area. A cold
front Wednesday will bring more storm potential to the northern
third of the Panhandles. Upper level southwest flow will return to
the area on Thursday and combine with downsloping winds to bring
high temps into the 100s for most of the region on Friday.
Troughing develops down the western coastline during this time and
begins to push eastward over the weekend and brings more chances
for storms again starting Sunday.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
308 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-290900-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
308 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Panhandles. Some
storms may become severe with large hail bigger than golf balls
and damaging winds. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible.
Heavy rain from the strongest storms may produce localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday across
northern parts and again on Sunday for the whole area. Some of
the storms may become severe with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats.

High temperatures may warm to 105 degrees or higher in Palo Duro
Canyon State Park on Friday. Therefore, a heat advisory may become
necessary.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should stay alert for severe weather this afternoon and
evening.

Beat

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1022 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 PM     HAIL             9 SSW SPEARMAN          36.08N 101.25W
05/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       HANSFORD           TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800161

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1049 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     HAIL             6 NNE BOYD              36.78N 100.76W
05/28/2018  M1.25 INCH       BEAVER             OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800162

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1053 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     13 SW WOLF CREEK PARK   36.10N 100.82W
05/28/2018                   OCHILTREE          TX   STORM CHASER

            FUNNEL CLOUD 1/3 OF THE WAY DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800164

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1106 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             10 W WOLF CREEK PARK    36.19N 100.82W
05/28/2018  M1.50 INCH       OCHILTREE          TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800165

BIEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1107 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOODWELL                36.59N 101.63W
05/28/2018                   TEXAS              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF BARN AND ANOTHER BARN COLLAPSED NEAR
            GOODWELL, OK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800166

MJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1108 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 SSW WOLF CREEK PARK   36.17N 100.66W
05/28/2018                   OCHILTREE          TX   STORM CHASER

            FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED 3/4 OF THE WAY DOWN AT LOCATION.
            REPORT RELAYED VIA TWITTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1800167

BIEDA