Red Flag Warning 41, NWS Amarillo, TX

365 
WWUS84 KAMA 130202
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
902 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

OKZ001-TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317-130315-
/O.EXP.KAMA.FW.W.0041.000000T0000Z-180513T0200Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-Sherman-Hartley-Moore-Oldham-Potter-Deaf Smith-
Randall-Palo Duro Canyon-
902 PM CDT Sat May 12 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...

Critical fire weather conditions are no longer expected.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1214 AM CDT Sat May 12 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z
Sunday. Winds at the Guymon TAF site will shift from the southeast
and south 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots around to the
west 10 to 20 knots and north by 08Z to 14Z Saturday. Winds are
then expected at become northeast and then southeast 10 to 20
knots after 18Z to 20Z Saturday. Winds at the Dalhart and Amarillo
TAF sites will mainly be from the south and southwest 10 to 20
knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 35 knots by 18Z
to 20Z Saturday.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 601 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018/

AVIATION...
Gusty southerly winds will decrease overnight. A cold front will
pass by the GUY TAF site by sunrise Saturday morning. But winds
will come around to the south there by late in the forecast. AMA
and DHT should have southerly winds pick up by early Saturday
afternoon. Skies are expected to remain VFR and any showers or
thunderstorms should stay east of the TAF sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 548 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018/

DISCUSSION...
For this evening, have incorporated the 10 pop rule for isold
high based tstms across eastern sections of the OK and TX
Panhandles as sfc temps are close to potentially breaking the cap
and atmospheric instability is present. Dropped pops to non
mentionable after 06Z this evening due to loss of daytime
heating. If storms develop, they may become strong to marginally
severe with strong, gusty winds the primary hazard.

The sfc dryline will likely mix to the eastern parts of the fcst
area again on Saturday. If the mid level capping inversion can be
breached, the potential is there for isold tstms to form late
Saturday afternoon and evening east of where the dryline establishes
itself. Utilized the 10 pop rule for Saturday afternoon and then
bumped up to slgt chc pops Saturday evening for eastern zones. If
storms form, strong, gusty winds and perhaps hail will be the
primary hazards.

Numerical weather models suggest broad southwest flow aloft will
prevail across the southern high plains from late this weekend
into the middle of next week as an upper level low pressure storm
system over the Great Basin remains in that general vicinity while
slowly weakening. Eventually this upper level low is progged to
be replaced by another one over the southern Great Basin late next
week. Sufficient moisture should be in place to warrant slgt chc
to chc pops for showers and tstms across at least parts of the OK
and TX Panhandles from Sunday through Thursday. Continued to
undercut the Superblend pops somewhat as confidence is not that
high yet on rain chances, especially further out in time.

Andrade

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected through 10 PM CDT
this evening for western and central sections of the Oklahoma and
Texas Panhandles due to strong winds and low relative humidity
values. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible again on
Saturday for western sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles
due to strong winds and low relative humidity values. A Fire
Weather Watch is in effect for this area. Neither elevated nor
critical fire weather conditions are anticipated Sunday at this
time.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
     the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...
     Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
     the following zones: Cimarron.

&&

11/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
911 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-121415-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
911 PM CDT Fri May 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Saturday for
western sections of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due to
strong winds and low relative humidity values. A Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for this area Saturday afternoon and evening.

Isolated thunderstorms may develop across eastern sections of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles late Saturday afternoon and
evening. If storms form, they will have the potential to become
strong to severe, with strong, gusty winds and hail the primary
hazards.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Thursday
across parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. If storms
develop, they will have the potential to become strong to
marginally severe, with strong, gusty winds and hail the primary
hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions on Saturday.