Red Flag Warning 23, NWS Amarillo, TX

389 
WWUS84 KAMA 252240
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
540 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

OKZ001-002-TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-260200-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180326T0200Z/
Cimarron-Texas-Dallam-Sherman-Hartley-Moore-Oldham-Potter-
Deaf Smith-Randall-
540 PM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FOR THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AS WELL AS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron and Texas. In Texas... 
  Dallam...Sherman...Hartley...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Deaf 
  Smith and Randall.

* 20 Foot Winds...Southwest wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 
  35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 5 to 13 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...3 to 6.

* Timing...Through 9 PM CDT this evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions 
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of 
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will 
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid 
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

Andrade

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1254 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

.AVIATION...
06z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions are expected with some high level cirrus through
most of the day. A few sprinkles along with mid level clouds and
virga are possible mainly for KAMA between 06z and 09z. Southeast
to south winds may be gusty as the virga helps mix down higher
winds at times. Otherwise, winds will gradually become more
southwesterly through the morning, and increase to 15-25 knots by
late morning or early afternoon, and decrease to around 10 knots
after sunset.

Ward

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 604 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018/

DISCUSSION...
For tonight, an upper level shortwave trof over southern New
Mexico embedded in the overall southwest flow aloft will zip
across the region late tonight. Several models, including the
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian suggest some light showers may accompany
this upper level trof, mainly across the srn zones. GFS is wettest
overall with highest pops compared to all other models. Have
decided to go with the majority and incorporate slgt chc pops
across srn zones along and south of interstate 40 for tonight at
this time. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected to
return to the OK and TX Panhandles for Sunday and Monday as
surface pressures fall along the lee slopes of the Rockies.

The next upper level low pressure system slated to impact the OK
and TX Panhandles Tuesday through Thursday continues to be handled
differently by medium range models. The GFS remains the driest
while the Canadian model is much wetter durg this time period. All
other models are between the two extremes. The main trend seen by
12Z models is that more models are leaning on the drier side as
opposed to wetter. Given this trend, have reduced pops below
superblend again and also a bit lower than previous fcst pckg for
Tuesday through Thursday. In addition, a decent cold front is
progged to move across the fcst area Monday night with cooler
temperatures seen for Tuesday through Thursday, rebounding Friday
and Saturday.

Andrade

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely to
develop on Sunday and Monday across most of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles due to southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher
gusts along with forecast minimum relative humidity values of 6 to
20 percent. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect from late
Sunday morning through early Sunday evening for the western
Oklahoma Panhandle as well as the western half of the Texas
Panhandle. Neither elevated nor critical fire weather conditions
are anticipated from Tuesday through Friday at this time.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...
     Hartley...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Sherman.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT this morning through this
     evening for the following zones: Cimarron.

&&

7/3

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
402 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-252115-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
402 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to
develop today over all of the Oklahoma Panhandle and all but the
easternmost Counties of the Texas Panhandle. A Red Flag Warning
will be in effect this afternoon and early evening for the western
half of the Texas Panhandle and the western two-thirds of the
Oklahoma Panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely to develop
on Monday across most of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due to
southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts along with
forecast minimum relative humidity values of 10 to 20 percent.

Thunderstorms will be possible Monday night across the eastern
Texas Panhandle. Severe thunderstorms are not expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions on today and Monday.

Cockrell