Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Amarillo, TX

564 
WWUS84 KAMA 051617
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1017 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018


TXZ001-006>008-011>013-016-017-060100-
/O.EXA.KAMA.FW.W.0016.180305T1700Z-180306T0100Z/
Dallam-Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Oldham-Potter-Carson-Deaf Smith-
Randall-
1017 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for strong winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect until 7 PM CST this evening.

* Affected Area...In Texas...Dallam...Hartley...Moore... 
  Hutchinson...Oldham...Potter...Carson...Deaf Smith and Randall.

* 20 Foot Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 5 to 7 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...3 to 5.

* Timing...11 AM until 7 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

OKZ002-003-TXZ003>005-060100-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0016.180305T1700Z-180306T0100Z/
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.A.0014.180306T1700Z-180307T0100Z/
Texas-Beaver-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
1017 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLES...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Texas and Beaver. In Texas... 
  Hansford...Ochiltree and Lipscomb.

* 20 Foot Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  today. Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph Tuesday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 to 9 percent today. As low as 
  10 to 14 percent Tuesday.

* Red Flag Threat Index...3 to 5 today and Tuesday.

* Timing...11 AM until 7 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

A Fire Weather Watch means that the potential for critical fire
weather conditions exists. Listen for later forecasts and
possible red flag warnings.

&&

$$

OKZ001-TXZ002-060100-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0016.180305T1700Z-180306T0100Z/
Cimarron-Sherman-
1017 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLES...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron. In Texas...Sherman.

* 20 Foot Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 5 to 7 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...3 to 5.

* Timing...11 AM until 7 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

TXZ009-010-060100-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.A.0014.180306T1700Z-180307T0100Z/
Roberts-Hemphill-
1017 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLES...

* Affected Area...In Texas...Roberts and Hemphill.

* 20 Foot Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 to 14 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...3 to 5.

* Timing...11 AM until 7 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that the potential for critical fire
weather conditions exists. Listen for later forecasts and
possible red flag warnings.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

522 
WWUS84 KAMA 051710 AAA
RFWAMA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1110 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

...UPDATED TO LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND INCREASE WINDS
WHICH WILL INCREASE RFTI LEVELS...

OKZ002-003-TXZ003>005-060100-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180306T0100Z/
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.A.0014.180306T1700Z-180307T0100Z/
Texas-Beaver-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
1110 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE OKLAHOMA AND
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLES...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLES...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Texas and Beaver. In Texas... 
  Hansford...Ochiltree and Lipscomb.

* 20 Foot Winds...Northwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph 
  today. Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph Tuesday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 5 to 7 percent today. As low as 
  10 to 14 percent Tuesday.

* Red Flag Threat Index...5 to 7 today and Tuesday.

* Timing...11 AM until 7 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

A Fire Weather Watch means that the potential for critical fire
weather conditions exists. Listen for later forecasts and
possible red flag warnings.

&&

$$

OKZ001-TXZ001-002-006>008-011>013-016-017-060100-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180306T0100Z/
Cimarron-Dallam-Sherman-Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Oldham-Potter-
Carson-Deaf Smith-Randall-
1110 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...

* Affected Area...In Oklahoma...Cimarron. In Texas...Dallam... 
  Sherman...Hartley...Moore...Hutchinson...Oldham...Potter... 
  Carson...Deaf Smith and Randall.

* 20 Foot Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 4 to 7 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...5 to 7.

* Timing...11 AM until 7 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures will
create favorable weather for rapid fire growth and spread. Avoid
activities that promote open flames and sparks.

&&

$$

TXZ009-010-060100-
/O.CON.KAMA.FW.A.0014.180306T1700Z-180307T0100Z/
Roberts-Hemphill-
1110 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLES...

* Affected Area...In Texas...Roberts and Hemphill.

* 20 Foot Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 to 14 percent.

* Red Flag Threat Index...3 to 5.

* Timing...11 AM until 7 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that the potential for critical fire
weather conditions exists. Listen for later forecasts and
possible red flag warnings.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
www.weather.gov/ama

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1107 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018

.AVIATION...
06z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions expected through the period. Southwest winds will
shift to the northwest between 06z and 10z as a Canadian front
moves through. Winds will stay around 10-20 knots throughout most
of the period, with slightly stronger winds along and behind the
front. Can't rule out some winds shear mainly around KAMA this
evening as a strong low level jet strengthens ahead of the surface
front.

Ward

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 209 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The main headlines to the forecast will be the Red Flag Warning in
effect until early this evening along with other chances of fire
weather conditions throughout the forecast period. This will be
further discussed in detail in the fire weather section below.
Otherwise, latest observations shows a dryline mixing out and
moving into the eastern Panhandles dropping dewpoint temperatures
into the single digits above and below zero. With downsloping
southwesterly winds, high temperatures today will be well above
average with highs ranging from the upper 70s to a few locations
reaching the mid 80s.

Going into the early morning hours on Monday, a Pacific cold
front will work its way through the region from west to east
shifting our winds from southwesterly to northwesterly. In the
wake of the front, in-conjunction with the main upper level low
deepening over northeastern Nebraska, winds will be quite gusty,
especially in the northeastern Panhandles closer to the main
system. High temperatures on Monday will drop to near average
ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Continuing throughout the week, conditions will remain dry as we
remain under a northwesterly to westerly mid level flow under
large scale upper level convergence. Periods of mid level ridging
moving across the region throughout the forecast period will
reinstate the dry conditions across the region. Temperatures will
remain near average throughout most of the week. Going from Friday
to the end of the forecast period, surface winds should shift to
southwesterly and advect warm temps to bring highs above average
to close out the forecast period.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
The dryline is moving/mixing faster than most models have
indicated with dewpoints falling behind it more drastically as
well. At 19Z the boundary extended from just east of GUY to Pampa
to Plainview and it was continuing to rapidly push east. There
seems to be a secondary boundary, perhaps the more dynamically
driven pre-frontal trough in the far western Panhandles further
west where winds are shifting a bit more westerly and dewpoints
are crashing to near 0 deg F or lower. RFTIs are ranging from 2-4
behind the initial boundary and have been 6-8 at times in the far
west. Have updated the forecast follow the most agressive models
WRT eastward progression of the dryline and lower dewpoints.

Wind continues to be the big wildcard with this event. The models
have continued to slow the progression of the upper level trough
which extended trough UT at 18Z. This means the mid level jet,
which is already a bit north for a classic fire outbreak, doesn't
push into NW zones until after 00z Monday. Models have continue to
back off winds, but we have remain a little cautious about
lowering wind speeds too much as there is concern the extreme
mixing could tap into stronger wind speeds aloft late this
afternoon (something models typically miss). This could help wind
forecasts verify for the wrong reason. Given this, have kept
winds in the 25-35 mph range this afternoon with gusts of 40-50
mph (a minor decrease from before). That said, the NW is by far
the most likely area to see wind speeds that strong, and peak
winds become increasingly uncertain in central and eastern zones.

It should be pointed out, that even if winds don't quite reach
forecast values, they will be high enough to still make for a
bad fire day given extreme dryness and large wildfires remain
possible, especially in the NW Panhandles where SPC shows an
extreme wildfire threat. Based on this, critical to extreme
categories still still on track.

Dewpoint recovery tonight will be minimal and therefore little
relief is expected overnight for any fires that do form. Pacific
cold front will move through the area between 9 pm and 3 am from
west to east promoting gradual wind shift to a more northwest
direction.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are also
possible on Monday and Tuesday across the northeastern Panhandles.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for the following zones: Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...
     Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree...
     Roberts...Sherman.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

&&

7/15

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
704 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-051315-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
704 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible on
Monday and Tuesday, especially across the northeastern Panhandles.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday.